Did CNBC Management give us a Market Signal – Yes they did

On July 5, 2008, CNBC Management announced a change in their evening schedule:

  • They replaced the daily 8 pm telecast of CNBC’s Fast Money, an aggressive risk-oriented trading show with a conservative personal finance show that preaches avoidance of risk.

“It is a tenet of investing that the Business Press usually provides a reliable contrarian signal” – we wrote in our original article on this topic – “Did CNBC Management give us a Market Signal?” – July 19, 2008.

In that article, we asked Will CNBC’s decision to promote lower risk on its network prove to be a contrarian signal for investors to add more risk to their investing approach? Only Time will tell!”

This being our blog’s original and proprietary market indicator, we intend to follow it and publish regular updates. Let us call it the
CinemaRasik-CNBC Indicator or CR-CNBC Indicator in short.

In fact, we will track it in 2 ways:

  • As of the date of CNBC’s decision (i.e. July 5, 2008) – the CR-CNBC-5 Indicator and

  • As of the date we published the indicator (i.e., July 19, 2008) – the CR-CNBC-19 Indicator.
This will be a test of a variation of the old adage “Beauty is in the eye of the Beholder”. We shall see which has greater predictability – the actual act by CNBC or the recognition of the act by CinemaRasik

Below is the performance of the CR-CNBC-5 Indicator after one month:

Index Name 
     Price – 7/5/2008       Price – 8/4/2008         Gain-Loss 
 Dow Jones
         11288.53            11284.15              0.0% 
 S&P 500
           1262.90              1249.01            -1.1%
 Nasdaq            2245.38             2285.56           +1.8%
 Russell 2000
             665.78               704.14            +5.8%

Below is the performance of the CR-CNBC-19 Indicator after one month:

 Index Name
      Price – 7/19/2008      Price – 8/18/2008        Gain-Loss 
 Dow Jones
           11496.57           11659.90          +1.4%
 S&P 500
             1260.68            1298.20          +3.0%
 Nasdaq              2282.78            2452.52          +7.4%
 Russell 2000
               693.08              753.57          +8.7%

Well! CNBC Management did prove to be a reliable contrarian indicator. 

Send your comments to editor@www.cinemarasik.com

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