President Obama entered the White House convinced that America’s great problem in foreign policy was its fractured relationship with Muslims. This was not just his own conviction but one that had achieved the aura of a globally accepted “fact”. Therefore building a dialog-based trusting relationship with the world’s Muslims became the foundation of his foreign policy.
To this end, President Obama identified two countries as his chosen allies. The first was Turkey. President Obama virtually anointed Turkey as the most favored nation of his foreign policy. At first glance, this seemed a slam dunk choice. Turkey had a tradition of secular governance. Turkey was a member of NATO. Turkey was seeking membership in the European Union. Historically, Turkey had been a leader of the Middle Eastern Muslim world. Turkey could be a counterweight to Iran. And Turkey was largely free of the friendly-to-Bush stigma or “allies in the War on Terror” label of Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
How did this intelligent policy work in practice? Today, over two years after the launch of his dialog with Muslim nations, the Obama Administration is more unpopular in the Middle East than the Bush Administration was. Saudi Arabia almost detests the Obama Administration and it is difficult to find an Arab state that likes or respects it.
And Turkey, the anointed ally, has done almost everything within its power to damage American interests in the Middle East. Prime Minister Erdogan, Turkey’s dynamic, arrogant leader, used the soft power bestowed by President Obama to seek a position of leadership and power in the Middle East. Erdogan jettisoned Turkey’s close relationship with Israel and recently threatened a naval conflict over Israel’s blockade of Gaza. Turkey
seeks to become the major power in the Middle East and a power broker
without whom no progress is made. Until now, America wore this mantle.
None of this was foreseen by the Obama Administration and to this day, we are not sure whether the Administration understands what it has created in Turkey. President Obama’s goal was to get a peace deal between Israel & the Palestinians. Turkey did virtually everything it could to destroy any peace deal. The anti-Israel rhetoric of Erdogan and the offer to help end the blockade of Gaza destroyed any possibility of Egypt & Saudi Arabia persuading Palestinians to come to terms. The result was a near disaster at the UN last week, the near declaration of a Palestinian State by the UN General Assembly.
In turn, Israel responded to its reprieve by announcing plans for 1,100 new housing units outside Israel’s pre-1967 boundaries. This might the epitaph of President Obama’s trumpeted plan to establish America as a trusted and humble power in the Middle East.
If Turkey was the anointed ally of the Obama Administration, Pakistan was the critical ally. The Obama campaign had admired the writings and views of Ahmed Rashid, the Pakistani writer. The Obama Administration came to power determined to tilt towards Pakistan and step back from the Bush Administration’s Strategic Partnership with India. Pakistan was deemed absolutely critical to a withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Obama Administration was convinced that the stability of Pakistan was the ultimate objective and without such stability Afghanistan was a lost cause.
Two years later, we now see a united Pakistan, united in its total opposition to American interests in Afghanistan. It desires to create instability by by joining the Taleban & Jihadis in Anti-American rhetoric and by offering everything it can to China, including chunks of its occupied territory in north Kashmir.
This week, Admiral Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, accused Pakistan’s Intelligence Agency of colluding with the Haqqani network in its attack on the American Embassy in Kabul. Such acts are usually considered Acts of War. Bill O’Reilly of Fox called Pakistan an enemy and wondered what President Obama plans to do. Chris Mathews of MSNBC, a self-proclaimed worshiper of President Obama, called the Pakistan Military an enemy & an ally on his Sunday show.
This transformation from a critical ally to an “enemy-ally” demonstrates the abject failure of President Obama’s policy. At least, we can all pretend that Turkey is a friend and ally. But no one can mistake Pakistan for an ally. No one except the Obama Administration of course, Helene Cooper of the New York Times told Chris Mathews that the Obama Administration is now trying to get closer to the “civilian” regime in Pakistan, the same “civilian” regime that publicly threatens America while pledging support and allegiance to Pakistan’s Military-Intelligence complex.
How did an intelligent man like President Obama make such enormous mistakes? There are several reasons:
- President Obama had contempt for President Bush’s intelligence. So everything President Bush did was deemed erroneous or dumb and had to be reversed.
- The second is Mr. Obama’s overpowering belief in his destiny. Early in his administration, President Obama said “the World has expectations of my Presidency”. It is clear now that he really believed it. So the mundane task of preserving America’s interests seemed beneath his exalted destiny, we think.
- President Obama believes that he is the most intelligent man he knows. It follows that his analysis is always correct and his summation is unarguable. But President Obama has never realized that the future is unanalyzable and that unlike summations or analysis, decisions for the future have to be taken by a different mental technique.
This combination of backward looking intelligence, a destined mission to transform the world, an enormous arrogance that borders on conviction of “infallibility”, was guaranteed to fail at the mundane task of working for America’s success.
This is also why President Obama has failed so badly at improving the American economy. He bought into his own campaign rhetoric about the dangers of a free capitalist system and the dangers posed by America’s wantonly dangerous Banks. He came to power determined to change America into his image of a morally just society driven by transnational goals.
So he made Banks his Public Enemy No. 1. Then he focused on changing the World & American society. President Obama embarked on a transformational agenda of Clean Energy, Cap & Trade and Health Care reform in America. Rather than creating a solution for the uninsured and addressing solvable problems like insurance portability, Obama drove to change the entire health care system. President Obama is an intelligent man. He knew that each of his programs would damage job creation. But that was considered secondary to his transformational mission.
Instead of creating jobs or improving the American economy, President Obama was more interested in addressing financial inequality. So he concentrated on programs that would redistribute income from the middle class and the wealthy to the poor. Since Banks were the source of all evil and the creators of inequality, they had to be cast as evil and defanged. That left the mundane task of improving America’s economy. Well that was simple. Massive Government spending would take care of the economy.
How has that worked out? America’s debt has exploded from about $10 trillion in 2008 to about $14 trillion. The American people are worse off today than they were in 2009. The economy is about to enter a new recession, this time a consumer-led recession. But President Obama refuses to acknowledge this reality. This refusal is not for want of understanding.
President Obama sees that the problems America faced in 2008 are now being faced by Europe. In fact, the problems in Europe are much deeper and much greater than what America faced in 2008. European Banks are in far worse trouble than America’s banks were in 2008. Europe is in deep trouble because Europe’s traditional policy of creating a social welfare state via excessive government debt and heavy taxes.
Though he sees this, President Obama cannot acknowledge it. Because President Bush cannot be blamed for the problems of European Banks and European Debt.
- President Obama blames President Bush for his huge tax cuts for the rich. Europe did not pass such tax cuts for the rich.
- He blames President Bush for coddling American Banks. Europe did not coddle European Banks.
- President Bush allowed subprime mortgages. Europe did not allow subprime mortgages.
Yet, Europe fell into a worse financial crisis than America did. This is a very inconvenient reality for President Obama. So he refuses to address it.
But why did Europe fall into its own financial crisis? Because they financed an expensive social welfare structure via excessive Government debt and high personal taxes. That mistake is eerily sim
ilar to Obama’s own economic plan. This is another reason why President Obama will not publicly address Europe’s problems.
President Obama embarked on his economic course in the same mindset and manner with which he embarked on his foreign policy. His economic policy has been an utter failure just like his policy in Pakistan and Turkey. These are not just failures of implementation or execution. These are failures of a misplaced sense of destiny, of an arrogance in his “infallibility” and his training in backward-oriented analysis.
Can he change course? Yes he can. Can we believe the change? Yes, provided we see a deep personal change in Barack Obama, an awakening of real humility, a cathartic confession of how & where he went wrong and a visible, total dedication to the American people rather than to his “destiny”.
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