The Russian government has agreed to let American troops and weapons bound for Afghanistan fly over Russian territory, officials on both sides said Friday. The agreement is expected to be announced when President Obama visits Russia on Monday and Tuesday, reported the New York Times on July 3.
“Afghanistan is one of the areas where we must cooperate,” said Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the foreign affairs committee in Russia’s upper house of Parliament. Russia understands, he said, that the United States and NATO forces in Afghanistan are effectively defending Russia’s southern flank.
This is great news indeed. Mr. Margelov is absolutely correct. Problems in Afghanistan threaten the security of both America and Russia. This is one area in the world where the interests of America and Russia are congruent. The fact that both America and Russia are willing to recognize this and cooperate is terrific news.
This agreement is a big deal for America. Until now, Russia only allowed restricted use of its territory for the Afghan war, permitting shipments of nonlethal supplies. Under the new agreement, American officials said, military planes carrying lethal equipment as well as troops will be allowed to make thousands of flights a year through Russian airspace. 
Until now, America was forced to transport its military supplies mainly through Pakistan, a route that has become less viable due to increased Taleban attacks. In February 2009, the Taleban blew up a key bridge near Peshawar forcing suspension of road shipments to the American forces in Afghanistan. Uzbekistan evicted American troops from a base in 2005 and Kyrgyzstan threatened to evict America from its strategic airbase, until American negotiators persuaded it to reverse itself, in a deal that reportedly triples the rent for the airbase (see map above).
We have always felt that the Bush Administration made a grievous foreign policy mistake when it decided to be anti-Russian. It was a stupid policy because America had nothing to gain and a great deal to lose. But, Russia has always been an emotional issue for the Neocons in America. So the Cheney cabal tried to rub Russia’s face in the sand by getting involved and fostering the orange revolution in the Ukraine.
People forget that Russia is the only country in the world that can destroy America. Besides, unlike any other country, it can create substantial problems for America in most global trouble spots. Iran is just one example.
Going forward, it is imperative for America to come to an understanding with today’s emergent Russia. Russia is establishing an important strategic alliance with Germany, an alliance that can change the face of Eastern Europe. Russia is cozing up to a newly aggressive China and the two seem to be forming an anti-US cartel of sorts in the IMF and other global economic institutions. Russia can single-handedly make Iran into a much more dangerous opponent for the USA.
The good news is that, where Russia has its core interests like the Baltic or South Caucasus, America does not have a critical strategic interest. Yet, the old anti-Russia haters and the Neocons trapped the Bush Administration into an anti-Russia embrace with problematic regimes like the ones in Georgia. The simple reality is that if America wins Iraq and neutralizes Iran, then Georgia is unimportant.
A nation of 140 million Russians cannot compete with a nation of 1.3 billion Chinese on its boundary. The vast oil-rich region of Siberia is the prize that China seeks desperately. It cannot seize Siberia it militarily but it hopes to do so via migration of Chinese people into Siberia. This is Russia’s Achilles heel. It is this future nightmare scenario that can persuade Russia to come to a strategic arrangement with America, if America is wise enough to make an attractive offer.
We are hopeful but not at all sanguine. We do not believe that the Obama Administration is either confident enough or bold enough to make such a deal given the vociferous opposition it will face from emotional right-wing critics. It will also be difficult to persuade the American people about the benefits of such a move. The memories of the 40-year cold war are not forgotten easily.
So, we hope that a modest beginning is made in Moscow this week and America-Russia begin cooperating in areas where their interests coincide.
That is why we think the agreement on Afghanistan needs to be celebrated on this 4th of July.
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