Interesting Videoclips of the Week (March 26 – March 30, 2012)

Rick Santelli made a colorful suggestion of what the Great “Bernack” should do next. It is a bit too vivid for us. So we leave you to hear or read for yourselves in clip 4 below. But Rick Santelli demonstrated again why he is so trusted and admired:

• “I remember partially in the ’90s and partially late ’70s and early ’80s when Wall Street wasn’t doing well, it seemed like they wanted to talk recession. When Wall Street is doing well, they never think that way”.

Most CNBC anchors either think like or portray the thinking of Wall Street executives, investment bankers and traders. They keep telling the viewers how great the economy is. Fortunately, Rick doesn’t sing the song of Wall Street. 

The only reason we heard was the release of the Treasury Operation schedule, or the bond buying calendar of the Fed. And it seems that the Fed will be buying less 30-year and 10-years than they bought last month. This release seems interesting in view of comments made by Bill Gross to BTV’s Margaret Brennan, comments that seem to suggest that Bernanke would like to see higher 30-Year Treasury yields (see clip 1 below):

• “…..buying longer-term bonds and selling shorter dated Treasuries. I think that’s basically been played out and the pension market itself in terms of liability structure has been damaged to some extent by lower 30-year yields”

Regardless of the reason for the sell off on Friday afternoon, it never feels right when a major asset class reverses on the last day of the month. And the TLT closed just about at its 200-day moving average. If you look back to past several years, you will notice that April is a pivotal month for the Treasury market. Either, long maturity treasuries suffer a steep sell off into June or they rally into June. Catching the right move can be very profitable. So what is the right move?

• Dennis Gartman said on CNBC-FM that he is short Treasuries and he expects it to be a big trade.
  
• Steve Cortes of CNBC-FM tweeted on Friday before the sell-off that he was taking profits (kudos to him) even though he likes them longer term. 
  
• Jeff Kilburg of Treasurycurve.com remains bullish.
  
• Timothy Collins (@Tangletrade), a colleague of Jim Cramer at RealMoney tweeted on Friday afternoon, “just below 112 is red-line [for TLT], break that means 107-108.”

Frankly, just watch whether TLT breaks its 200-day moving average decisively or not. That is a tried and true indicator. 

This week, Tom McClellan, co-founder and editor of the McClellan Market Report, appeared with BTV’s Adam Johnson. Mr. McClellan bases his thesis on the net Euro-Dollar positions of Commercial Traders. He says there is a one-year lag between the behavior of the EuroDollar futures ( the most liquid interest rate product) and the stock market.  McClellan said

• “now we are in a pause mode until June, then a huge rally into the election. Between now and June we are in a corrective market and the market does not even seem to know it yet because everybody is excited about Apple, they are excited about new home sales acting better, they are excited about whatever..but come June get ready for a big hunking rally but don’t get impatient waiting for that..”

Mr. McClellan gave a similar message in his appearance with Adam Johnson on February 6, 2012.

Lawrence McMillan of Option Strategist wrote:

• “In summary, the bulls are still in charge and will continue as long as support holds. However, if the 1385-1390 support gives way, it could lead to an intermediate-term sell signal — something we haven’t seen since last November.”

5. Fund Flows

In his weekly report, Michael Hartnett of BAC-Merrill Lynch discussed two 2012 mega-themes, the Great Rotation (from bonds to equities) and the Great Rebalancing (from China producer to G7 consumer).

• Weekly flows do not indicate Great Rotation….biggest outflows from long-only equity funds since Dec’11 ($5.1bn) versus bond fund inflows (albeit at slower pace)
  
• Flows do show small sign of Great Rebalancing….first weekly redemptions from EM & Asia equity funds in 2012, huge Brazil outflows & best streak of Japan inflows in 9 months

6. Gold

David Rosenberg was asked by BTV’s Trish Regan what he likes about Gold right now. He replied:

• Gold has been in a secular bull market that started about 12 years ago. It is the only asset class that has been up, on a December 31 to December 31 basis, for the past 11 years. This is a case where a ball in motion will stay in motion until such time as the motion is caused to go into reverse. And that’s not going to happen until the Fed starts to raise interest rates. When you start to see interest rates go up and real interest rates move up from negative to positive, the bull market in gold is probably gonna come to an end. But Bernanke has already told us that the Fed is not going to tighten policy until after the end of 2014 at the earliest…. negative real interest rates are always going to be positive for Gold,…,that means dip will occur and those are the dips you want to buy as a long term investor…  

Rosenberg’s target for Gold is $3,000 as Trish Regan relayed a bit later. On the other hand, his ex-colleague Rich Bernstein doesn’t like Gold, especially for U.S. Dollar based investors. His argument is not based on negative real interest rates but on a secular rally in the U.S. Dollar. Specifically, Bernstein told CNBC’s Maria Bartiromo and Bill Griffeth:

• …over the next 3-5-7 years, we will see the Dollar meaningfully appreciate. I think it will be a secular trend pretty much reversing what we have seen in the past decade.… I think people have grossly underestimated a lot of the problems around the world. We are seeing that in Europe this year. It is our guess that as we go into next year, we are going to learn that the emerging markets have a lot more problems than people are expecting. That’s good for the Dollar….

7. Oil

Featured Videoclips:

1. Bill Gross on BTV’s InBusiness on Wednesday, March 28
2. David Rosenberg on BTV’s InsideTrack on Tuesday, March 27
3. Jeremy Siegel on CNBC Squawk Box on Thursday, March 29
4. Jim Bianco & Rick Santelli on CNBC SOTS on Wednesday, March 28
5. Ahmed Rashid on Jon Stewart’s Show on Wednesday, Mar
   ch 28

• “I think [Chairman Bernanke] is very satisfied…I think the Fed is outcomes-oriented. They want an outcome in terms of a higher stock market, in terms of housing starts and lower unemployment. What [Bernanke] said on Monday, in terms of the employment, he suggested that up until now, we’ve done very well in terms of reducing unemployment but it’ll be tougher going forward if only because of structural impediments that he outlined. Going forward, he’s looking at jobs, at unemployment and the housing markets. You know, future QEs will the outcome-oriented type of strategy which seeks to provide jobs and provide higher housing prices and housing starts to continue on.”

• “I have a sense that they’ll continue with the Operation Twist, but not necessarily in terms of buying longer-term bonds and selling shorter dated Treasuries. I think that’s basically been played out and the pension market itself in terms of liability structure has been damaged to some extent by lower 30-year yields. I think [Bernanke] will try to do is Twist in the mortgage market. Basically, buy current coupon mortgages in agency spaces and then basically Twist by repo-ing out the Treasuries that they currently own in short-term space. So, you know, a twist on another Twist I suppose, going forward.”

• “It is easy to recognize. I told my wife about it last night and in the middle of the night she started saying something about James. I hope she was referring to the ETF but you get the point… It’s more easily recognizable. In this business you want to go with a ticker and a sticker that people can recognize and pass on to their neighbors.”

On Gross’s warnings to investors about management fees:

• “We’ve noted that for a long time. This is simply a cautionary element that suggests that when interest rates come down close to zero and when the discounting of those interest rates and equity prices and other financial assets produce a perspective of 4-5% total return for the combined asset class is in our view, then it’s incumbent upon a manager to keep expenses low and to alert investors as to the importance of expenses relative to lower returns in this new financial world that we speak to.”

• “We wanted to be able to give investors a choice. We recognized the tremendous importance of the retail distribution network for PIMCO and for the Total Return Fund, which is now $253 billion. Thank you very much, we don’t to discourage that. But there are investors in the $10,000-$20,000 category, who find it difficult to buy PIMCO Total Return. We thought this would be a good way to do this in the actively managed ETF space. By the way, we’re outperforming the market in the first month or so by a good 200 basis points.”

• “We have an average appetite in terms of duration space. And to the extent that five-year Treasuries, which are being issued today and seven-year Treasuries tomorrow – they reflect a relatively firm commitment on the part of PIMCO, which reflects a relatively firm commitment on the part of the Fed that they’ll keep interest rates firm until late 2014. Bernanke mentioned yesterday that that wasn’t a commitment in total but it’s subject to a relatively slow economy and contained inflation, which is what we see now. A five-year security at slightly above 1%, to our way of thinking, as it rolls down the yield curve and becomes a four-year, produces close to a 2% return and is that a super, deeper attractive type of return? No, it’s not….but it’s certainly better than nothing.”

• “We have reduced our Treasury commitment slightly. From the standpoint of duration, we have average duration of an average maturity across the board but we have been reducing Treasuries and investing in shorter duration corporates and rather heavily in the agency mortgage market. You can get, with a Fanny or a Freddie coupon that is a 4% coupon, you can realize 3% as opposed to the 2% or 1% – I mentioned in terms of five-year space. We’re really focusing on spread and the lack of volatility going forward for the next two to three years which is really the domain of 30-year and 15-year mortgages.”

• “Where is that attractive growth? Countries like Brazil, countries in Asia, China-related of course. These countries don’t come without risk. They don’t come without a rather volatile situation in terms of inflation or potential currency disorder. If an equity investor is looking for growth, you want to go developing as opposed to developed. Even a bond investor, if you are looking for higher real rates such as in Brazil, you want to go to developing as opposed to developed.”

• “We’re looking at the five-year, not the 10-year or the 30- year. At 230 basis points over the U.S. five-year, that’s an attractive situation. That doesn’t come without risks. It is a triple B+ type of security in terms of sovereign space and has a history of default going 10, 11, 12 years back. At these spreads and with situation currently, this is an attractive situation compared to U.S. Treasuries.”

• “What we’re suggesting now is not an extremely negative possibility. That would be the fat left tail. But also the fat right tail, we’ve had a fat right tail in equity markets for the past 3-6 months…On the left-hand side, you know, the bi-model possibility in terms of a downturn are simply a reflection of the high degree of leverage, the high degree of debt and the policy coordination which may or may not be helpful in terms of producing this smooth, rather bell-shaped mode or median we’re all used to.“

Last week, Rich Bernstein cautioned CNBC journalists: 

• “one has to be careful beating up Dave because Dave has an uncanny ability to be right when people think he is really stupid.”

Guess Scarlet Fu and Sara Eisen of BTV didn’t get that memo. Because they beat up on David Rosenberg in this interview. We will not repeat the statistics Mr. Rosenberg gave on CNBC Squawk Box a week ago (see clip 1 in March 18-March 24 Videoclips) but will include new comments or new metaphors:

• since [the labor market report], for every economic indicator that surprised to the upside, two economic indicators surprised to the downside…I actually think we are going into the 2nd Quarter with the economy on the down escalator in terms of momentum…
• its when you get to this cross street called the corner of perception and reality….a year ago we had the QE2 rally, now we have the post LTRO rally…these are rallies you can rent, not rallies you can own…the corner of perception and reality began last year in late April – early May…people are going to be surprised how soft the economy is going to be for the next several months…
• There is a chance you will get QE3 but do you really think it is gonna happen with the S&P at 1400..when he came with QE2, the S&P was at 1100…..I think the hurdle for QE3 is higher than people think…this is a market juiced up by central bank actions and they are going to be disappointed…QE3 is gonna come but at a different level of everything, from economic activity to stock market…it is not going to be at today’s levels…
• if the market were driven by fundamentals, we would not have had for the last couple of years, three significant sell offs in the stock markets and on top of that two double dip scares….

3. Dow 15,000, Dow 17,000 – Jeremy Siegel on CNBC Squawk Box – Thursday, March 29

Dow 15,000 or even Dow 17,000 is definitely possible by end of 2013, said Professor Jeremy Siegel to CNBC’s Becky Quick. Why? He explained:

•  “not only based on past evidence but about returns in past 5-year, 10-year periods…but most persuasively because of valuation of the market. Compared to bonds, it is one of the cheapest markets I have seen.”

This is based on his absolute conviction about rates:

• “bond funds which have done very well until about 2-3 weeks ago..because I see absolutely no way that rates can stay any where near this low and then if you don’t have bonds to go to, where are you going to go?”

But another Professor (ex-Princeton & current-Georgetown), insists that rates will be low until the end of 2014. That Professor is, of course, Ben Bernanke who has a little more clout than Professor Siegel. Unfortunately, none of the CNBC Anchors asked him to explain what would happen to his thesis if he turns out to be wrong and Bernanke turns out to be right. Joe Kernen threw him a soft ball about what happens when rates begin to rise and Prof. Siegel answered correctly that stocks can easily rise during he early period of Fed tightening because the economy is improving and earnings will rise. 

Jim Bianco, the President of Bianco Research, is an astute analyst of markets. Here he speaks with Rick Santelli.

• Santelli – Jim Bianco, great guest. Quickly durables improved versus last month. Last month revisions were highly negative. One or two sentences on durables?
• Bianco – it shows that the economy is growing about at trend. trend is about 2.5%. not too hot. not too cold.
• Santelli – I tell you what, Jim, I love this CNBC Great America economic survey, surprising too many. Are you surprised that tangible assets, real estate and gold, were number one and number two, 37% and 24% respectively trouncing treasuries, savings accounts and stocks.
• Bianco – not surprised by gold. People look back and gold has been a good investment. Little surprised by real estate because it has not been a good investment. My take away there is they’re not paper. The public does not like paper.
• Santelli – Tangible things you can hold. That’s what Americans seem to like. If you were Ben Bernanke and you read this survey on a scale of one to ten, one being sad. ten being happy. what do you think he thought?
• Bianco – I think he’s probably a two or three. I think he knows this. That’s why he’s doing his lectures at George Washington. He’s on TV giving interviews, ABC last night. He knows that the Fed has a selling job to do that what they’ve done has improved the economy because most people don’t think that that’s been the case and that’s what the survey shows.
• Santelli – I remember in the partially in the ’90s and partially late ’70s and early ’80s when Wall Street wasn’t doing well, it seemed like they wanted to talk recession. When Wall Street is doing well, they never think that way. I think this is another one of those examples where Wall Street sees activity and Main Street doesn’t and I think that’s why these surveys are turning out the way they are. thoughts?
• Bianco – I would agree. There is a definite disconnect between what is happening in the financial markets and what is happening in the real markets right now. The public is still not believing that things are getting better. Steve’s right track/wrong track numbers were not good at 26% with people thinking we’re on the right track and rest thinking we’re on the wrong track. There is a big disconnect between the two. It’s now getting problematic for the federal reserve.
  
• Santelli – Another issue that we can go quickly. Everyone says asset allocation. Stock numbers are low and part of mutual funds where people aren’t pro-actively making a decision. Is the giant quid pro quo exposed? Meaning if you are one of the groups that all of these programs bail out, institutional side, bankers, insurance companies, they now buy Treasuries because the public isn’t and I think this gives us great insight into programs and who likes them  the same ones that central bankers cater to – other bankers. < /font>
• Bianco – I would agree. The survey confirms what we see in mutual fund flows. The public is not buying Govt. bonds funds. They are buying corporate bond funds. The public is not buying stocks. There is no asset allocation. There is no money. 
• Santelli – programs are designed to get the public to go into those categories so I guess dancing with the stars should be the next stop in the campaign for the Fed to say that they have been successful.
• Bianco – Why not?