This is the Fourth Year of Macro Viewpoints Awards. We began these awards in 2009 to emphasize the perspective of an Individual Investor. Such investors don’t have many places to turn for serious unbiased advice. They have been hurt far too often by run of the mill fee collecting managers, salespeople and TV anchors who push “hot” funds or managers.
Yet, Financial TV can be extraordinarily helpful when it wants to be. Bloomberg TV, CNBC, Fox Business know most successful investors and they do bring this first rate talent on their shows. Listening to great investment minds is the easiest way we know to generate risk-safe returns. So we try on a weekly basis to bring to our readers gems of investment wisdom we hear on Financial TV.
Then at the end of the year, we acknowledge and highlight the best we saw on Financial TV via Macro Viewpoints Awards. Our standards are as rigid as they are elastic:
- We like “expert” Guests, TV Anchors or TV Shows IF they make us money or at least IF we would have made money had we listened to them. In this context, we include “not losing money” or “saving capital” in our definition of making money. We like them more if they reveal an insight we would not have observed ourselves. And we adore Simplicity.
This is borne out by the prior winners of our Most Useful Financial Guest Awards:
- Jeffrey Gundlach – 2011
- David Tepper – 2010
- Meredith Whitney – 2009
All three were in a zone in their respective years. Any one who listened to them made money as well as saved capital. Mr. Gundlach also had a solid year in 2012 as a guest on both BTV & CNBC. But as he himself said on December 18 on BTV Market Makers, he made money tactically by trades, trades that he advises individual investors to say away from. David Tepper reportedly had a great 2012 with 35% gross return and 25% net return. He appeared on CNBC Squawk Box on December 17 to explain the 4-5 decisions that led to his performance. Unfortunately, individual investors did not benefit from this acumen because neither Mr. Tepper nor CNBC shared his decisions with viewers during 2012.
Our prior winners for the Most Useful Financial Show Award are:
- CNBC Strategy Session – 2011
- CNBC Fast Money – 2010
- CNBC Squawk Box – 2009
So who are the Macro Viewpoints Award winners in 2012?
1. Macro Viewpoints Most Useful Financial Guest Award for 2012
2012 has been the year for tactical investing. Stocks, Bonds, Commodities all made money for investors this year. Superior performance required you to buy the cheaper and out of favor asset classes and stay away from the most favored class of the moment. 2012 began with a rally in just about every asset class. By February, most pandits had begun to talk grandly about America decoupling from Europe & the rest of the world. Financial TV was full of stock managers telling viewer to sell bonds and buy stocks.
One man who advised caution was David Rosenberg, the astute strategist of Gluskin Sheff. On February 24, 2012, Mr. Rosenberg appeared on BTV Surveillance and warned viewers to NOT confuse decoupling with a lag:
- Right now, the markets are breathing in the fumes of central bank liquidity…right now, you have positive seasonals, positive technicals..the fundamentals to me are questionable.
What did Mr. Rosenberg recommend on that day? Corporate Bonds. Just look at the chart of LQD, the Corporate Bond ETF from March to today. That was one terrific recommendation, something that fit the risk-reward mindset of individual investors. And it protected many viewers from the brutal stock market correction of May 2012.
A month later on March 27, Mr. Rosenberg coined the phrase “street corner of Perception & Reality” and warned:
- since [the February labor market report], for every economic indicator that surprised to the upside, two economic indicators surprised to the downside…I actually think we are going into the 2nd Quarter with the economy on the down escalator in terms of momentum...
That same week, David Rosenberg appeared with Richard Bernstein, his old Merrill Lynch colleague in a “reunited” special on CNBC Squawk Box. In that interview, Rich Bernstein advised viewers to buy 30-year Zero Coupon Bonds if they agreed with David Rosenberg. Those who did received a 20%+ return from March 24 to June 1, 2012.
While Treasuries and Bonds rallied massively in May 2012, stocks went into a brutal sell off. Into that sell off, stepped in Tom McClellan, the well-known market analyst & the creator of the McClellan oscillator. Actually, Mr. McClellan had warned BTV viewers about the impending correction in the stock market on March 28, 2012:
- “now we are in a pause mode until June, then a huge rally into the election. Between now and June we are in a corrective market and the market does not even seem to know it yet because everybody is excited about Apple, they are excited about new home sales acting better, they are excited about whatever..but come June get ready for a big hunking rally but don’t get impatient waiting for that..”
Mr. McClellan appeared on BTV Street Smart on June 7, 2012. He told viewers that the stock market had bottomed on June 4 and predicted a powerful rally into the November 2012 election. A simple call that turned to be powerfully right, a call that delivered a 15% return.
The above calls by Tom McClellan and David Rosenberg were simple, straight forward calls. They did not require daily or weekly hedging. They were basic “buy low” calls that were simply stated. Yet their performance demonstrated how profound they were. These are exactly what Individual Investors needed in 2012.
So we present the Macro Viewpoints Most Useful Financial Guest of 2012 Award jointly to Tom McClellan and David Rosenberg.
2. Most Usefu
l Financial Show of 2012
Sometimes you find a show that you simply have to watch. And if you miss it, you go to the network’s website to watch the videos. This usually happen to great sitcoms, comedy shows or soaps. It is very rare for a financial show to create such a must-watch sentiment.
This year a “new & improved” edition of a financial show created such craving at least in its first several weeks. The show made it a point to bring in the most useful guests it could find, guests who could add real insight to the macro and monetary events, guests who have the ability to explain and to help viewers make money. The show’s format allowed its main anchor, a veteran of financial TV, to have detailed discussions with the guests. It was evident to any viewer that the expert guests actually enjoyed being on this show.
This new & improved show is Bloomberg Surveillance with veteran Tom Keene flanked by Sara Eisen and Scarlett Fu. This is a more fresh and more substantive early morning version of the Surveillance Midday program which used to air at noon. The two hour show allows Tom Keene to have real conversations with expert guests, conversations that add real investment value. The 6am – 8am slot is perfect for such discussions.
The new Bloomberg Surveillance format with Sara Eisen and Scarlett Fu makes it a touch more EMPN than the typical BTV show. They both bring in their own views and segments. But they also do an excellent job of teasing or occasionally dissing the always serious Tom Keene for the benefit of the show.
But above all, the new Bloomberg Surveillance is dedicated to the business of investing. When politics or geostrategy impact investing, Keene & Co., focus on the specific investment ramifications. But they don’t try to be a political show one week, a print journalistic show the next week and an investment show another week.
This new Bloomberg Surveillance has all the winning aspects of CNBC Strategy Session, our winner of 2011 without any of that show’s flaws. It delivered the best investment content this year and did so week after week. During our business travels, Bloomberg Surveillance videos were the first ones we accessed to find out what we may have missed.
That is why we present the Macro Viewpoints Most Useful Show of 2012 Award to Bloomberg Surveillance. Kudos to Tom Keene, Sara Eisen & Scarlett Fu.
3. Innovation in Financial TV – the EMPN* way
Markets and sports are sort of two sides of the same coin. Both are games that trained athletes play mainly because they have fun doing so. Both draw the same kind of people, both require discipline, the ability to understand how the game is played and regulated. So you would think networks that telecast sports and markets would operate similarly.
We have been advocates of ESPN’s dual “play-by-play & professional analyst” format for Financial TV. No one is better than revealing the finer points of football than a Phil Simms, a Troy Aikman. It was CNBC that began incorporating this trend by hiring Larry Kudlow and Jim Cramer. Then, for some reason, CNBC stopped going the proven ESPN way and went back to its all journo-format. The result is what we all see, a tired format without much passion.
In contrast, BTV seems to have reinvented itself at least a bit. Their early morning Bloomberg Surveillance has become the most useful financial show on air and their revamped two hour “Market Makers” (10 am – 12pm) is a success. In our opinion, the success of BTV Market Makers has much to do with the EMPN type format and the chemistry between journalistic anchor Erik Schatzker and former investing professional Stephanie Ruhle. Ms. Ruhle used to cover large hedge funds as a Managing Director with Deutsche Bank. She brings to the show her network of hedge fund managers and her experience in Credit, a critically important area that is rarely discussed on Financial TV.
CNBC Squawk on the Street uses this type of format in small doses. It allows Rick Santelli his own brief spot in the “Santelli Exchange”, allows Jim Cramer to be a co-anchor for one hour and uses Art Cashin for short appearances.
But for the most part, CNBC has decided to restrict its innovation to the periphery of their coverage. Their “Money in Motion” show (Friday 5:30pm) is superb. It brings smart professionals like Rebecca Patterson, Andy Busch and Todd Gordon to discuss the interaction between currencies, commodities and stock markets. This show carries the innovation tradition launched by CNBC Fast Money, a major hit. But as we said, this innovation has simply bypassed CNBC’s long daily coverage. The result is there for all to see.
* Replace “S” for sports in ESPN by “M” for markets to get EMPN.
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