Interesting TACs of the Week (July 15 – July 21, 2024)

Summary – A top-down review of interesting calls and comments made last week in Treasuries, monetary policy, economics, stocks, bonds & commodities. TAC is our acronym for Tweets, Articles, & Clips – our basic inputs for this article.

Editor’s Note: In this series of articles, we include important or interesting Tweets, Articles, Video Clips with our comments. This is an article that expresses our personal opinions about comments made on Television, Tweeter, and in Print. It is NOT intended to provide any investment advice of any type whatsoever. No one should base any investing decisions or conclusions based on anything written in or inferred from this article. Macro Viewpoints & its affiliates expressly disclaim all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this article. Investing is a serious matter and all investment decisions should only be taken after a detailed discussion with your investment advisor and should be subject to your objectives, suitability requirements and risk tolerance.

 

God’s Grace:

Watch the first 40 seconds of the clip below & see what an incredible act of almost Divine Fortune prompted Former President Trump to turn his head! 

 

 

1.Markets Last Week – DeGrossing?

US Indices:

• VIX up 32.7%; Dow up 72 bps; SPX down 2%; RSP down 8 bps; NDX down 4%; SMH down 9.9%; RUT up 1.7%; IWC up 1.6%; MDY down 28 bps; XLU down 1.4%;

Key Stocks & Sectors:

• AAPL down 2.5%; AMZN down 5.8%; GOOGL down 1.8%; META down 4.3%; MSFT down 3.8%; NFLX down 1.8%; NVDA down 8.7%; MU down 14.4%; BAC up 2.6%; C up 98 bps; GS up 81 bps; JPM up 2.4%; KRE up 7.6%; EUFN down 1%; SCHW down 17.4%;

Dollar was up 42 bps on UUP & up 29 bps on DXY:

• Gold down 66 bps; GDX down 2%; Silver down 5.2%; Copper down 12.7%; CLF down 6.1%; FCX down 10.7%; MOS up 5.1%; Oil down 2.3%; Brent down 2.7%; OIH up 3.6%; XLE up 2.1%;

International Stocks:

• EEM down 3.9%; FXI down 5.2%; KWEB down 6.9%; EWZ down 4.5%; EWY down 4.8%; EWG down 3.8%; INDA down 1.6%; INDY down 66 bps; EPI down 2.5%; SMIN down 4.6%;

And interest rates moved up virtually every day of the past week

• 30-year Treasury yield up 5.5 bps on the week; 20-yr yield up 5.4 bps; 10-yr up 5.6 bps; 7-yr up 5.6 bps; 5-yr up 5.9 bps; 3-yr up 5.5 bps; 2-yr up 5.4 bps; 1-yr up 1.6 bps;
• TLT down 1%; EDV down 1.4%; ZROZ down 1.9%; HYG flat; JNK down 3 bps; EMB down 1%;

Except for the U.S. Dollar, virtually everything else sold off.

• zerohedge@zerohedge – Sun – Hedge Funds Bail: Largest De-Grossing Since Jan 2021 Meme Stock Craze

The above seems due more to the political winds & confusion about a triumphant Trump than about the economy & earnings. How much of that will get unwound or rewound with the decision of President Biden to withdraw from the race & the initial support for VP Kamala Harris? 

While the X-sphere keeps bringing about Mrs. Michelle Obama as a candidate, a soft but persistent rumor keeps putting form Mrs. Hillary Clinton as a convention favorite. If that happens, could we look forward to debates like the classic ones in 2016? 

 

 

 2. Two sides

Every single time?

• Seth Golden@SethCL – Sat – What happens after each deeply oversold condition for Semiconductors. Every. Single.Time 5-day RSI achieved oversold conditions Semiconductors bounced within days. $SPX $SMH $SOXL $QQQ $SPY $NVDA

Now to the big winner of this past week:

• Ryan Detrick, CMT@RyanDetrick – Jul 20 – Russell 2000 was just up more than 10% in 10 trading days. Since 1979 (when it started trading), this has happened only 23 other times (taking the first signal in a cluster). Future returns are quite strong, up nearly 27% a yr later and higher 86% of the time.

The other side is simply What, me worry?

 

 

3. Two well-expressed headlines

They also show the difference in styles of English (or Britlish, if you prefer) between America & BrIndia:

• ZUCKERBERG: “Trump get up after getting shot in the face and pump his fist in the air with the American flag is one of the most badass things I’ve ever seen in my life.”

And, the Headline of the Year with 60 million views plus:

 

They are entitled to gloat we think:

 

 

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