Summary – A top-down review of interesting calls and comments made last week in Treasuries, monetary policy, economics, stocks, bonds & commodities. TAC is our acronym for Tweets, Articles, & Clips – our basic inputs for this article.
Editor’s Note: In this series of articles, we include important or interesting Tweets, Articles, Video Clips with our comments. This is an article that expresses our personal opinions about comments made on Television, Tweeter, and in Print. It is NOT intended to provide any investment advice of any type whatsoever. No one should base any investing decisions or conclusions based on anything written in or inferred from this article. Macro Viewpoints & its affiliates expressly disclaim all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this article. Investing is a serious matter and all investment decisions should only be taken after a detailed discussion with your investment advisor and should be subject to your objectives, suitability requirements and risk tolerance.
1. Markets Shoot Up Again
Can anything else take the lead re last week except the US Stock market?
1.1 US Indices:
- VIX down 9.6% to 17.48; Dow up 3.2%; SPX up 4.5%; RSP up 3.3%; NDX up 6.2%; SMH up 6.2%; SOXL up 23.9%; RUT up 5.6%; MDY up 3.5%; XLU down 1.7%;
As @RyanDetrick posted – “Records are made to be broken” and also posted a “First Time in history” fact:
- Ryan Detrick, CMT@RyanDetrick – Apr 17 – Records are made to be broken. First time in history the S&P 500 was up 3% for three consecutive weeks and each week gained more than the previous week. 🥇
Without waiting for the end of the week, Carter Worth said on CNBC FM on Thursday “this ricochet is so violent” and in his new found effervescence, added “… the index is higher every single time 3-months; 6-months; 12-months out … it feels as of it is going to follow thru … “
But can anyone deliver a positive message in a calm, subdued and highly-detailed manner like Rick Rieder? A few nuggets below from his appearance on BTV on Friday:
- “what it tells you is technicals in the equity market are extraordinary; earnings numbers coming thru are pretty powerful ..”
- “look at the Semis – you are talking about 97% earnings growth yr/yr; unbelievable powerful numbers“
- “… the equity market is in pretty good shape & you have an IPO calendar this year that may be a couple of hundred billion … may be we are going to buy back a trillion dollars of stock for this year…. there’s not enough stock to buy“
- “I have been doing this for a few decades – I have never seen a productivity revolution like this before … by the way, you haven’t seen automation in AI kick in yet ..”
- “I think big cap stocks are so powerful is you are building a moat to utilize data; so effectively we’re seeing when productivity takes place, it buoys earnings” …
2.2 MAG 7:
- AAPL up 3.7%; AMZN up 5.1%; GOOGL up 7.7%; META up 9.3%; MSFT up 14%; NFLX down 5.5%; NVDA up 6.9%; MU up 8.2%;
For insightful & smart discussion on Hyperscalars & Semis, we urge you to look at Section 3 below for a useful indicator by Warren Pies, Strategy discussion by Ohsung Kwon (WFC) and a focused discussion by Ankur Crawford (Alger) on some mega software names, NVDA PEs & a small-cap semi idea that is expected to grow 4X in 4 years.
Remember last week’s (Section 3 – Ping insider Python) scary discussion by Bruce Richards on Private Credit investments in Software! Also remember the post we highlighted by @FrankCappelleri (reposted by @RyanDetrick) that said “Software is back to the late February lows, but positive divergence with RSI.” with the chart below:
We believe that Bruce Richards will be proven right BUT it also shows that “charts at lows” that show “positive divergence with RSI” make traders fast money as software stocks did last week. At this point, allow us to note that, in Section 3 below ” Ohsung Kwon says “SOFTWARE TO ME IS MORE DEAD MONEY … I STILL LIKE SEMIS OVER SOFTWARE.” and Ankur Crawford says Software stocks are a trade while Semis are an investment.
In contrast, as we recall, veteran technician Jonathan Krinsky prefers Software at this juncture and he also said on Friday “don’t chase this rally“. Perhaps we will say “Kudos” to him next week for his smarts & caution.
2.3 Key Financials:
- BAC up 2.6%; C up 6.3%; GS up 2%; JPM up 14 bps; KRE up 2.1%; EUFN up 4.1%; SCHW down 2.7%; APO up 19.5%; BX up 12.4%; KKR up 13.6%; XHB up 3.3%; ITB up 3.9%; NAIL up 11%;
As software stocks rallied from their oversold condition, Financial Stocks with serious positions in Private Credit also rallied hard. And oversold housing stocks also rallied with Treasury yields falling hard last week.
2.4 – Dollar & Metals
Dollar was down 29 bps on UUP & down 48 bps on DXY:
- Gold up 2%; GDX up 1%; Silver up 6.7%; Copper up 3.6%; CLF up 10%; FCX up 3.6%; MOS down 77 bps; Oil down 12.1%; Brent down 4.2%; OIH down 2.2%; XLE down 3.4%;
Back on Wednesday, April 15, Treasury Secretary Bessent announced that U.S. would not be renewing waivers on purchases of Russian Oil. A couple of days later, President Trump reversed this decision and extended waiver on Russian oil sanctions to ease Iran war shortages – a smart & sensible decision by President Trump. After all, lower price of Oil is now a global plus beginning with relief to American people.
As we saw last week, oil price decline had a positive effect on Treasuries leading to double-digit declines in the belly of the Treasury curve.
2.5 – International Stocks:
- EEM up 5.1%; FXI up 3.7%; KWEB up 6.1%; EWZ down 41 bps; EWY up 9.8%; EWG up 3.8%; INDA up 3.9%; INDY up 3%; EPI up 4.5%; SMIN up 5.4%;
Apple is going to report earnings in a week & half on April 30 and CNBC folks are beginning to talk about it. Remember when Apple announced manufacturing of Apple components in India – much of the talk on CNBC Fast Money (FM) was one of gentle disdain & the sheer impossibility of Indian manufacturing competing with Chinese manufacturing. Frankly we ourselves were not all that confident given how there was a halo around Chinese manufacturing clout.
Guess what CNBC revealed yesterday, April 18, 2026? CNBC reported that “India’s Apple Component Export To China Hits A Record $2.5 Billion“. Watch & get stunned yourselves. Who would have thunk it? Surely Melissa Lee of CNBC-Fast Money-NY would have dismissed it had some other source had published this amazing fact. Of course, she might still do so because, of course, CNBC-FM in NY doesn’t have to care what CNBC-Mumbai publishes, right?
That brings us to how CNBC Fast Money under the leadership of Melissa Lee discussed the US-China issue re Iran & roped in India at the end.
Below are the related segments from the YouTube Transcript of the segment:
- Melissa Lee: FOR MORE ON WHERE US-CHINA RELATIONS STAND, LET’S BRING IN DAVID RIEDEL. HE’S AN EXPERT IN CHINA, OF COURSE, PRESIDENT OF RIEDEL RESEARCH. DAVID, ALWAYS GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US.
- Melissa Lee: WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF WHAT TRUMP IS SAYING? I MEAN, THE LANGUAGE OUT OF BEIJING, AT LEAST OVERNIGHT, MAY BE PRIOR TO TRUMP SAYING THAT HE EXCHANGED LETTERS AND THEY PROMISED HIM NOT TO SEND WEAPONS. ALL OF THAT WAS PRETTY FIERCE. I MEAN, YOU KNOW, PRESIDENT XI SAID THE WORLD ORDER IS CRUMBLING AND POINTED DIRECTLY TO WHAT WAS GOING ON IN IRAN.
Notice something! Ms. Lee used the formal & respectful “President Xi” term when mentioning the Chinese President. In contrast, Ms. Lee used the casual & less respectful “Trump” when mentioning President Trump twice!!! Was that a sign of Ms. Lee’s personal disrespect for President Trump, a feeling, we believe, is shared by others at CNBC, MSNBC & presumably other parts of Verssant?
But isn’t it incumbent on American TV “talent” to refer to their President respectfully when they talk about him, especially when they are discussing the American President at the same time as a foreign leader? Frankly, we have never heard an American TV host, while on American TV in America, use a put-down of the American President & raise the foreign leader to a higher pedestal!
We are highly upset at Ms. Lee’s behavior & we sincerely hope CNBC’s Management & the Management of Verssant are too. Views about the policies are one thing but public disrespect of the American President is another & that too while treating a Foreign leader with Higher Respect! We understand that Ms. Lee, because of her Chinese heritage, might not respect President Trump’s heritage BUT she has no right to bring that into a public TV segment of an American TV Network.
Moving on,
- Melissa Lee – I MEAN, WHAT’S YOUR TAKE ON THIS WHOLE SITUATION?
- David Riedel – WELL, I’M GOING TO BELIEVE WHAT BEIJING IS SAYING A LITTLE BIT MORE THESE DAYS THAN WHAT WE’RE HEARING OUT OF D.C. I THINK THAT BEIJING IS FRUSTRATED BY THIS. I THINK THAT THEY DON’T WANT THE U.S. MEDDLING IN WHAT IS AN IMPORTANT CHAIN OF SUPPLY FOR THEM IN TERMS OF OF OIL AND ENERGY. THEY THINK THAT THE US DOESN’T HAVE ANY RIGHT TO BE DOING WHAT IT’S DOING. AND THEY’RE ALSO PITCHING THEMSELVES AS THE MORE STABLE, PREDICTABLE, GLOBAL PARTNER TO SOME OF THOSE ALLIES IN SOUTHEAST ASIA THAT ARE REALLY GETTING HURT BY THE HIGHER FUEL PRICES.
- Tim Seymour: HEY, DAVID. SO I GUESS THAT’S WHERE I WOULD GO WITH THIS, BECAUSE I SAW BOTH IN YOUR NOTES AND WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT CHINA IS THEY’VE BEEN STOCKPILING FOR YEARS AND THAT THEY’VE ALSO DIVERSIFIED INTO INTO WIND, INTO SOLAR, INTO NUCLEAR DOESN’T MEAN THAT THIS ISN’T AN INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT SOURCE OF OIL FOR THEM. BUT IS THIS MORE POSTURING?SO WE’RE LISTENING TO THEM. BUT THIS IS REALLY CHINA, WHO HAS A LOT OF WORK TO DO IN THE REGION TO BEFRIEND PEOPLE THAT THEY, YOU KNOW, AND AGAIN, IT’S GOING TO BE, I WOULD SAY, CONVENIENT ON THEIR PART TO DO IT WHEN IT MAKES SENSE FOR THEM. BUT HOW MUCH OF THIS IS TO PLAY THE ROLE THAT YOU JUST SAID, WHICH IS WE’RE ACTUALLY THE SAFE PAIR OF HANDS AROUND HERE.
After a bit of the Taiwan-China discussion, David Riedel reverted to his American feeling below:
- David Riedel – IT’S A TERRIBLE WIN THAT WE’RE GIVING THEM IN TERMS OF GIVING THEM ALL THIS DIPLOMATIC OPPORTUNITY TO WORK WITH SOME OF THESE POTENTIAL PARTNERS OF OURS IN VIETNAM, INDONESIA, THE PHILIPPINES, AND PLACES LIKE INDIA.
- Karen Finerman: WHAT IS THE STATE OF THE CHINESE ECONOMY AND WHAT’S YOUR FORECAST IF THIS CONFLICT GOES ON, IF CHINA WILL ACTUALLY HAVE TO DIP INTO THOSE RESERVES AND WHETHER OR NOT THEY COULD INSULATE THEMSELVES TO SOME DEGREE FROM, YOU KNOW, PROLONGED CLOSURE OF THE STRAIT.
- David Riedel: THIS REALLY BECOMES AN ISSUE FOR CHINA WHEN IT BECOMES A GLOBAL RECESSION, WHEN GLOBAL TRADE STARTS TO AMELIORATE, YOU KNOW, THEY’VE, THEY’VE DIVERSIFIED THEIR THEIR CUSTOMER BASE AWAY FROM THE US, BUT VERY HEAVY IN, IN EUROPE AND IN OTHER EMERGING MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD, ALL OF WHICH ARE GETTING SEVERELY BATTERED BY THESE HIGHER FUEL PRICES. SO THAT’S WHEN IT BECOMES A REAL PROBLEM FOR CHINA, WHEN IT’S A PROBLEM FOR THE REST OF THE WORLD.
Now Melissa Lee rejoined the conversation & brought up a topic that, we feel, she dislikes as much as she likes China:
- Melissa Lee: I MEAN, INDIA IS ALREADY BEING HIT. I MEAN, YOU JUST CAME FROM INDIA, DAVID, AND IT STRUCK ME IN THE NOTES THAT THAT THE THAT THERE’S A SHORTAGE GOING ON IN THE CANS THAT HOLD FUEL, WHICH IS ALSO IN SHORT SUPPLY.
David Riedel replied:
- >>David Riedel: THAT’S RIGHT. IT WAS REALLY SHOCKING TO LAND THERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS WAR AND BE THERE FOR FOR NEARLY A WEEK, I WAS IN MUMBAI AND I REALLY NOTICED A LOT OF PANIC BUYING OF THESE CYLINDERS OF COOKING GAS, WHICH ARE UBIQUITOUS ACROSS SOUTH ASIA AND IN INDIA. THEY’VE HAD TO PUT CONTROLS ON THEM. THEY CAN’T LET PEOPLE BUY TOO MANY OF THEM. A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE ACTUALLY POORER. PEOPLE ARE LEAVING THE CITIES AND GOING BACK TO THEIR VILLAGES, BECAUSE THE COSTS HAVE GONE UP. SO MUCH FOR THEM TO EAT AND, YOU KNOW, EAT OUT THE FOOD STALLS AND THE ROADSIDE STALLS AND SO ON AND SO FORTH THAT ARE REALLY THEIR LIFELINE. SO YOU’RE SEEING MILLIONS OF PEOPLE LEAVING MUMBAI, WHICH IS DEVASTATING FOR CONSTRUCTION SITES, WHICH HAVE LOST A LOT OF THEIR WORKERS, AS WELL AS A LOT OF THE THINGS THAT KEEP THE THE INDIAN ENGINE RUNNING. I WAS REALLY SURPRISED TO SEE HOW WHAT A BIG HIT INDIA HAS TAKEN FROM AS A RESULT OF THIS WAR.
In addition, residential buildings in Mumbai that are 35-40 years old do NOT have piped-in gas connections. So residents have to take the older cylinder to the neighborhood dealer & get a new one. It has been a very efficient system for decades. The problem erupted because Qatar was the major supplier of the LNG gas that goes into these cylinders. Ergo the problem which is serious.
While this is a very big deal for the lower-income people & migrants in cities like Mumbai, Bengaluru, it is NOT a major crisis for the economy. Look at the above story about electronic component exports to Apple in China; look at the story of India’s defense exports up 62% this year, a transformation of the old largest importer of weapons to a major exporter. And look what the IMF chief said this week on April 16:
Regarding energy & liquid natural gas, look what the South China Morning Post published about 10 days ago:
- On Friday, Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov said Moscow was well-positioned to ramp up oil and LNG supplies to India amid the energy supply chaos triggered by the Iran war.
- Delhi is reportedly in talks with Moscow to restart direct liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from Russia for the first time since the 2022 Ukraine war, while Indian refiners have renewed big purchases of Russian crude, securing 60 million barrels for April.
The bigger issue is that several friendly trading partners in the Persian Gulf have been hurt extremely badly & they can’t hope to recover until this conflict with Iran is settled either peacefully or otherwise.
2.6 Treasuries & Interest Rates:
- 30-year Treasury yield down 3.1 bps on the week; 20-yr yield down 5.5 bps; 10-yr down 7.7 bps; 7-yr down 9.9 bps; 5-yr down 10.6 bps; 3-yr down 11.2 bps; 2-yr down 10.6 bps; 1-yr down 6.4 bps;
- TLT up 67 bps; EDV up 58 bps ; ZROZ up 36 bps; HYG up 86 bps; JNK up 87 bps;
3. “Compute” & Productivity –
With all the noise about the war, let us focus on the key factor in this rally:
- Warren Pies@WarrenPies – Apr 8 – As the Iran War has ebbed and flowed, GPU availability for B200s has collapsed to zero…H100s close behind. Whatever happens with the war, the AI complex is likely to lead any true sustainable bull market.
Warren Pies was a part of a group on CNBC afternoon & added to the above. We couldn’t take notes and then we found that Pies & his episode was hidden behind CNBC’s paywall. So those who can afford CNBC’s high rates should look up his comments.
They could also listen to Ohsung Kwon of Wells Fargo discuss the “compute” issue & hyperscalar demand in detail with @TheDomino . Rare is a CNBC anchor who leads & lets a guest explain a trend so well. Kudos to @TheDomina.
First Ohsung spoke about the Oil shock from Iran:
- ” YEAH. I MEAN, THIS BASICALLY SHOWS THAT THE MARKET AND THE ECONOMY ARE LARGELY INSULATED, AT LEAST FOR NOW, FROM THE OIL SHOCK THAT WE SAW FROM IRAN. I MEAN, IF YOU LOOK AT OIL INTENSITY OF THE ECONOMY, IT’S DOWN 75% SINCE THE 1970S AND ONLY 1.4% OF S&P OPEX IS COMING FROM OIL, EVEN AT $100 OIL. AND THAT’S BASICALLY IN LINE WITH THE LATE 90S LEVEL WHEN OIL WAS $20 ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION. SO, YOU KNOW, I THINK THERE’S STILL A LOT OF TAILWINDS FROM THE FISCAL STIMULUS, FROM ONE BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL THAT’S GOING TO PROVIDE CUSHION, AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SIX MONTHS. AND I THINK THE MARKET’S GOING TO BE ON A SUGAR HIGH FOR THE NEXT THREE MONTHS.
- >> YEAH. I MEAN, THE ANSWER TO YOUR LAST QUESTION IS YES, I THINK I THINK TECH IS GOING HIGHER. WE LIKE THE HYPERSCALERS, THE MAG 7,; WE WERE BEARISH HYPERSCALERS FOR THE PAST MONTH. WE TURNED BULLISH RECENTLY A FEW WEEKS AGO, REALLY ON THE IDEA THAT THEIR FREE CASH FLOW MIGHT BE INFLECTING HIGHER. AND THAT WAS REALLY THE REASON WHY WE WERE BEARISH BEFORE THAT, THAT FREE CASH FLOW ESTIMATES FOR 2026 ; THE HYPERSCALERS HAS BEEN CUT BY 70% OVER THE PAST YEAR. AND NOW OUR ANALYSTS ACTUALLY THINKS THAT THAT NUMBER IS INFLECTING HIGHER BECAUSE THEIR TOP LINE IS ABOUT TO ACCELERATE GOING FORWARD. THERE’S A LOT OF CAPACITY THAT’S COMING ONLINE AND EVERYONE STILL SAYS DEMAND OUTPACES SUPPLY. AND IF THAT’S THE CASE, I THINK REVENUE IS GOING TO ACCELERATE GOING FORWARD. AND THE BIGGEST CONVICTION THAT I HAVE IS THE COMPUTE POWER IS ONLY GOING HIGHER.
- AI IS REALLY GOOD. THAT’S ESSENTIALLY WHAT THE MARKET IS SAYING THROUGH SOFTWARE STOCKS. AND IF THAT’S THE CASE, HYPERSCALERS ARE PROBABLY NOT OVERINVESTING AND COMPUTE POWER. WE’RE JUST GOING TO NEED MORE COMPUTE POWER GOING FORWARD.
- WE ALREADY SAW 70% ESTIMATE REVISION DOWN IN FREE CASH FLOW ALREADY. WE THINK THAT’S INFLECTING HIGHER GOING FORWARD, WHICH IS GOING TO BE THE POSITIVE INFLECTION FOR SENTIMENT. ALSO, SENTIMENT WAS REALLY BEARISH FOR HYPERSCALERS FOR THE PAST SIX MONTHS. AND THAT WAS REALLY THE FUNDING SHORT FOR A LOT OF HEDGE FUNDS AND VALUATION HAS CONTRACTED BY ABOUT 30% ALREADY AT THE LOWS FOR THE NASDAQ. SO I THINK THIS WAS A VALUATION RESET AS WELL AS THE POSITIONING RESET THAT WE SAW IN MARCH. AND NOW YOU KNOW I THINK I THINK THE RISK IS TO THE UPSIDE GOING FORWARD.
- TO BE HONEST, WERE LONG SEMICONDUCTOR NAMES AND FUNDING THOSE LONG POSITIONS BY BORROWING AND SHORTING SOFTWARE NAMES. THE DIVERGENCE WAS MASSIVE. IT WAS STARTING TO CLOSE AT ONE POINT OVER THE COURSE OF THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS.
- OVER THE PAST, IT’S ALMOST BEEN THREE YEARS SINCE SEMIS HAS REALLY STARTED OUTPERFORMING SOFTWARE. I THINK SOFTWARE TO ME IS MORE DEAD MONEY. I THINK THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT VALUATION RESET. I MEAN, WE HAVE A FUNNY CHART THAT SHOWS THAT SOFTWARE NOW TRADES IN LINE WITH DEPARTMENT STORES, RIGHT? SO BASICALLY THE RETAIL DISRUPTORS VERSUS THE DIGITAL DISRUPTORS ARE TRADING AT THE SAME MULTIPLE. SO THAT’S HOW MUCH SOFTWARE HAS DERATED ALREADY. THAT BEING SAID, I DON’T REALLY SEE THAT MUCH UPSIDE CATALYST IN SOFTWARE. EARNINGS CONTINUE TO REVISE GET REVISED HIGHER FOR SOFTWARE, BUT THE STOCK CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE. SO I STILL LIKE SEMIS OVER SOFTWARE.
Then he enunciated his broader theme:
- “the AI bull market is maturing from a cap-ex driven bull market to a monetization-led bull market; so we are heading into a healthier phase“
But how about some names in Semiconductors, especially from someone whose names have been just great? That some one is Ankur Crawford of Alger who gave us AppLovin & NBIS in two prior appearances on CNBC Closing Bell. This week she came on again & gave us a 3rd name after discussing Software vs. Semis before focusing on some big names in software & giving one small-cap semi name:
- “Microsoft is a bit of a different beast; it has traded along side the rest of software! So has AppLovin, so has Palantir & Cloudflare even though they are going to cross the chasm!”
- “its small-cap software & Hardware semis are just more interesting; …. valuations are not egregious today; when NVDA trades at 18-19-20 multiple, these are not valuations you should be running from & NVDA too hasn’t been a fantastic stock; its kinda flat; “
“memory trades at like 3 times or 4 times; … it is not an egregious multiple ; they are growth cyclicals” - “Astera Labs – it peaked at $260… growing 4X over 4 years … its dislocated in parts because people think they are a copper play & they will get left out in the optical transition; … that’s a complete misnomer because they actually own , I think of a, central train station for data on chip & regardless of whether you have optical or if you have copper, all the bits actually have to go thru an Astera chip; so I think is is misunderstood … “
How about going from the above uses of “compute” to thinking of “compute” as “a financial asset class” in itself? This is a terrific idea that has come from an MIT product. Sincere thanks to Brian Sullivan of CNBC for highlighting this start-up on his show.
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