Summary – A top-down review of interesting calls and comments made last week in Treasuries, monetary policy, economics, stocks, bonds & commodities. TAC is our acronym for Tweets, Articles, & Clips – our basic inputs for this article.
Editor’s Note: In this series of articles, we include important or interesting Tweets, Articles, Video Clips with our comments. This is an article that expresses our personal opinions about comments made on Television, Tweeter, and in Print. It is NOT intended to provide any investment advice of any type whatsoever. No one should base any investing decisions or conclusions based on anything written in or inferred from this article. Macro Viewpoints & its affiliates expressly disclaim all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this article. Investing is a serious matter and all investment decisions should only be taken after a detailed discussion with your investment advisor and should be subject to your objectives, suitability requirements and risk tolerance.
1.Markets Last Week
Last week, @SubuTrade posted:
- In the past 20 times this happened, $SPX was lower 75% of the time a week later.
That worked out this week as we see below:
US Indices:
- VIX up 2.4% to 15.74; Dow up 1.1%; SPX down 63 bps; RSP up 74 bps; NDX down 1.9%; SMH down 2.8%; RUT up 1.2%; MDY up 96 bps; XLU down 1.1%;
So what does @SubuTrade say now?
- Subu Trade@SubuTrade – 12-14 – Was Friday the start of a bigger pullback for stocks? $VIX Term Structure fell below 0.79 on Thursday. Volatility was too low. This only happened 3 other times in the past 4 years. Each case was followed by at least a -10% correction for $SPX
Anything re Nasdaq?
- Subu Trade@SubuTrade – 23h – The NASDAQ Composite has been above its 100 day moving average for 150 straight days. Historically, $SPX was higher 12/13 times 6 months later, and 100% of the time 1 year later • Average gain: +14.8% ; • Average max drawdown: −3.6%
And,
- Subu Trade@SubuTrade – Dec 12 – $VIX has dropped below 15 for the first time in over 2 months, signaling a return to more normal volatility. Past cases saw $SPX higher 13 out of 14 times after 3 weeks & higher every time 1 year later.
But are outflows negative or positive?
- The Market Ear@TME – Tech blues; Biggest 2 week outflow in tech since February 2025.
Speaking of some one who has been more right than wrong in 2025:
Key Stocks & Sectors:
- AAPL down 18 bps; AMZN down 1.5%; GOOGL down 3.8%; META down 4.3%; MSFT down 96 bps; NFLX down 5%; NVDA down 4.1%; MU up 1.7%; JPM up 1.1%; KRE up 3.7%; EUFN up 2.9%; SCHW up 3%; APO up 7.2%; BX down 64 bps; KKR up 5.6%.
Dollar was down 46 bps on UUP & down 57 bps on DXY:
- Gold up 2.3%; GDX up 2.7%; Silver up 5.3%; Copper down 1.7%; CLF up 3.4%; FCX up 4.8%; MOS up 11%; Oil down 4.5%; Brent down 4.2%; OIH down 2.2%; XLE down 89bps;
The immediate above & the immediate below would be natural if Larry McDonald of Bear Traps Report proves correct about “lot of juice coming into the economy; the ultimate set up for hard assets and this colossal migration we saw in 2025 & its going to move into 2026“
International Stocks:
- EEM down 91 bps; FXI down 2%; KWEB down 1.9%; EWZ up 2.4%; EWY down 1.7%; EWG up 1.9%; INDA down 1.4%; INDY down 1.5%; EPI down 1.6%; SMIN down 91 bps;
The Fed eased & interest rates went up;
- 30-year Treasury yield up 6.6 bps on the week; 20-yr yield up 6.5 bps; 10-yr up 5.3 bps; 7-yr up 4.2 bps; 5-yr up 3 bps; 3-yr down 0.5 bps; 2-yr down 3.8 bps; 1-yr down 6.9 bps;
- TLT down 94 bps; EDV down 1.6%; ZROZ down 1.8%;
That brings us to:
- The Market Ear@TME – SPX vs rates – Gaps are getting very wide…SPX vs the 10 year (inverted) and the 30 year (inverted).
The SPX vs. 10-yr (inverted) is similar:
What about longer-term vs. short-term reality?
- Subu Trade@SubuTrade – Dec 12 – $TLT is down 5 years in a row. Meanwhile, $TLT Short Interest just made a new Record High.
2. People have gone Nuts!
Even if nothing comes out of Pres. Putin’s trip to India 10 days ago, he should be happy about creating virtual panic & a media storm in America & to a smaller extent in Europe. So this week, we will share our views about the trip and the driving framework.
2.1 A Humongous Geological Event:
The Arctic is melting & the maritime corridor that was closed for navigation is now slowly re-opening into a maritime route called the Northern Sea Route (NSR). Even looking at this only from a Intra-Russia perspective, this NSR shortens the distance between St. Petersburg (European Russia) & Vladivostok (Asian Russia) from 23,000 km to 14,000 km or by 9,000 km and takes 40% less time. And Russia, reportedly, has the world’s largest icebreaker fleet to clear the ice in the route.
2.2 Ideal & Stunning synergy between Russia & India in this case
Consider a simple statistic – number of people per million square miles. Russia has 146.3 million people spread over 6.6 million square miles, or 22 people per million square miles. The same figure for China is 379 people. And China represents an existential risk in this context because China has a huge contiguous border with Russia.
Enter India into the equation. India, by the same measure, has 426 people per million square miles. And India has a humongous hunger for minerals that Russia has in bulk, especially near its Arctic coastline. And India-Russia have been staunch allies for the past 70+ years without any conflict between them. And already the Vladivostok-Chennai route is getting increasingly busier & more important for both countries.
As we said, India is extremely hungry for direct access for Indian companies into the Arctic and for mining investments Indian companies want to make in that forlorn Arctic region.
Notice there is no urban or major industrial center closer to the Arctic in Russia. And the scariest resource for Russia is people, workers to live & work in the Arctic region. By the way, some Indian companies, reportedly, are already mining inside Mongolia, the country sandwiched between Russia & China. These companies have to carry what they mine up into Russia, use the Trans-Siberian railroad to Khabarovsk, then south to Vladivostok.
But that is small stuff. Look above the green & orange railroad lines. You see nothing above that all the way to the Arctic Coast of Russia, right? Let’s remove the square label naming the railroads & look at the virgin coastline:
Notice Pevek, the small dot to the right of the map, below the Chukchi Sea label and to the right of the East Siberian Sea label. (enlarge the map to see it clearly). Has anyone at Bloomberg, CNBC, Fox Business ever covered Pevek or have even heard of it? Indian TV has, as you see below:
Pevek, today, is the home of the world’s 1st floating nuclear power plant, and has been a place to mine Uranium & other critical minerals. And these minerals, once mined & collected, can be shipped from Pevek via Chucksi Sea into Bering Sea & then south into Vladivostok. And Russia already, via its icebreaker fleet, is using this maritime route.
Again, who can supply the manpower to mine & then transport all these precious minerals? What country has the largest worker growth in the world? As a US clip pointed out:
- “India added 11 million people to its workforce last year. 11 million. That’s like adding the entire population of Belgium to your labor force in 12 months“.
Of course, when you look at the maps above & focus on Vladivostok, what do you see? A narrow piece of land sandwiched between the mass of China & the Sea. Isn’t that nature-made for China to smuggle in loads of workers in tranches into Vladivostok & its near areas to eventually claim that city-area as ancient Chinese possessions?
If we & our smart readers can see that, wouldn’t you bet that Pres. Putin & Russia already see it & sense it? Is that why, as we read, Russia has offered India the opportunity to build a Satellite City of Vladivostok. If India starts building that city & populating it, then that satellite city becomes a hindrance to any future Chinese ideas about claiming Vladivostok. Yes, Chinese navy will be much bigger than any Indian Navy units near Vladivostok. But Indian Navy can bottleneck Chinese access across the Malacca Straits & into the Indian Ocean. Also notice Japan lies across the Sea of Japan from Vladivostok & Japan cannot allow China to take control of that critical piece of ocean-front property facing Japan. And Japan would be far more willing to step on the side of India in this particular China-India fracas.
Think thru the above & ask yourselves what better ally can Russia have in this particular naval maritime area?
2.3 USA tariffs against India & Mobility Business
We do a brief segue here to bring you what India’s Foreign Minister JaiShankar said about loss of business due to US tariffs:
- “Last year, remittances to India were $135 billion; that’s about roughly twice our exports to the United States. It’s just the remittances because think of the people abroad, their own livelihood, the assets they have created there, the services which have been generated in India, the 2nd-3rd order of consequences of all this; I leave it to you to actually imagine what the size of the business which is called mobility; I put to to you – it is clearly multiple times the remittances. Now that’s the positive side, when it is legal then it has a whole lot of beneficial impacts … “
Now combine this positive benefit to India from labor mobility & Russia’s need to import workers in a monitored way, don’t you wonder why Putin-Modi have not discussed this? Guess those two think farther than us! Read what a India Today Global clip said 4 days ago on December 10, 25:
- “Ageing economies such as Russia and Japan are facing massive labor shortages, and they are actively seeking Indian workers to fill critical roles across engineering, IT, construction, caregiving and manufacturing.”
- “India, meanwhile, is sitting on a demographic surplus. Millions of young people enter the workforce every year, outpacing domestic job creation. This imbalance is transforming global mobility and pushing countries to form structured migration partnerships with New Delhi.”
- “The upcoming Overseas Mobility Bill reflects India’s new strategy — building long-term, safe and organized pathways for overseas workers. Russia has emerged as one of the biggest beneficiaries.
- “During the Modi–Putin summit, both countries signed a labor mobility pact, and President Putin has introduced one of the most liberal residency systems Russia has ever offered, including three-year visas and permanent residency options without language tests.”
- “Japan is undergoing a similar shift. Its 2025 Action Plan aims to facilitate the movement of 500,000 people, including 50,000 skilled or semi-skilled Indian workers. With Western tech companies facing restrictive U.S. visa rules, hiring patterns are shifting toward Europe, Japan, Singapore and the UK. Western restrictions aren’t stopping mobility — they’re redirecting it. With a young and skilled workforce, India is becoming the world’s largest labor partner, shaping economies far beyond its borders.”
We didn’t know that Putin-Modi had signed a labor mobility pact during Pres. Putin’s visit 10 days ago. That makes us wonder how many other agreements were signed but not disclosed!
2.4 RELOS
No navy is comfortable about travelling long ways without access to local ports for refueling & minor repairs, etc. This problem is acute for foreign navies traversing the Indian Ocean. This was a reason why India & USA signed a Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), in 2016 which allows mutual access to military facilities for refueling/repairs. This was followed in 2022 with an agreement allowing repairs of US Navy ships at Indian ports. That was to benefit US Navy that did not have large bases between Bahrain & Japan. That arrangement has been a success.
We wonder whether the success of that US-India agreement encouraged India to propose a similar arrangement to Russia about a year ago. Finally, President Putin concurred & the RELOS agreement between India & Russia was signed during his visit 10 days ago.
Just look at the maps above & ask yourselves whether Indian vessels, both commercial & military, would have been able to maintain their activity from India to Russia & Russian Arctic without a local ports arrangement? The answer is obviously no and that is why India proposed an agreement similar to the India-US agreement. Russia finally saw the benefits & agreed.
Rarely are agreements so mutually beneficial as the India-Russia RELOS agreement! India gets major access to the Arctic Ports & the entire Russian coastline and Russia gets access into the Bay of Bengal & then into the Indian Ocean. Notice that India & Russia stepped in to help the small African country of Burkina Faso with its crippling $10 billion debt. We seriously doubt whether Russia would have participated in this loan assistance without the India-Russia RELOS pact.
2.5 Ukraine strikes again & damages USA
We reproduce the Pevek related map above for easy reference. Remember we focused on the maritime route from Pevek up the Chukchi Sea & then to the right into the Bering Sea:
Guess what that turn right from the Chukchi Sea into the Bering Sea involves? Don’t guess; instead look at the map below:
That dark blue shaded area is the Bering Strait, the small piece of sea between Russia & USA. Now remember what President Putin suggested to President Trump during their meeting in Alaska – that USA-Russia should build land-bridge or tunnel across the Bering Strait to link up Russia & USA!
We believe President Trump was intrigued but Russia was regarded as America’s mortal enemy while Ukraine was thought of a morally pure damsel in distress. So President Trump had to be content with the huge breakthrough he had engineered in that summit. The Ukraine war began stopping from that point.
But that madness about Ukraine & the crazy attacks on Russia & on India were probably critical for President Putin to work towards the India-Russia RELOC Pact & what transpired during his visit. By the way, sanctions imposed on ships used to transport the crude bought from Russia by India prompted India to launch its own Ship-building program & led towards the RELOS pact between India & Russia.
Fortunately, we believe that post-Ukraine 2026 will enable President Trump to really launch & do what he wants to making 2026 a success for America & President Trump.
2.6 Smart Retail Politics
President Trump has been the smartest retail politician, in our opinion. No one else would have been able to withstand the attacks on him during the Biden Administration. Unfortunately, what worked & works as smart retail politics in America is toxic in India. And India is a much more intense arena for retail politics. That, in our opinion, has been the principal problem in US-India relations this year.
In contrast, we have never thought of President Putin as a retail politician. But we were stunned to see him perform brilliantly as a retail politician in India. To begin with, he said publicly that India is the ONLY COUNTRY that Russia trusts which was music to the middle & higher income class. Then he hit an emotional grand slam with the majority with his memory of Raj Kapoor, the legend.
Pres. Putin was born in 1952 while Raj Kapoor’s mega hit Awara was released in 1951. Raj Kapoor went to Russia in 1954 & by that time Awara had swept Russia. Not only was Raj Kapoor invited to enter Moscow without even the barest of formalities, he received a tumultuous welcome at the airport. As the story goes, when he got into a taxi at Moscow airport, his cab was lifted by his fans on their shoulders & carried out of the gate.
President Putin remembered the Raj Kapoor of his childhood & expressed intense admiration at how India has changed & developed since Raj Kapoor. What a brilliant political & emotional touch! Even PM Modi had to bring up his own favorite Raj Kapoor song in his speech.
The point is we have never heard any US politician ever bring up a legend like Raj Kapoor during an Indian visit. In fact, the vast majority of US Politicians can’t even name a legendary Indian talent in any field. The US media is far worse. Even networks like Bloomberg, CNBC with related outfits in India exhibit nothing more than utter ignorance mixed with semi-racist perceptions of India.
Raj Kapoor made many terrific films & so did his family of brothers & sons. But nothing matches the Opera on Screen effect of Awara & its incredible tale. Just as an example, we insert below its most classic – the reunion of the tragic hero & the girl of his childhood & the beginning of their adult romance. Watch the 4 minute clip & also read the English subtitles. The clip transcends language. The song is eternal because their life story is a great opera of its own.
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