Interesting TACs of the Week (July 6 – July 12, 2026)

Summary – A top-down review of interesting calls and comments made last week in Treasuries, monetary policy, economics, stocks, bonds & commodities. TAC is our acronym for Tweets, Articles, & Clips – our basic inputs for this article.

Editor’s Note: In this series of articles, we include important or interesting Tweets, Articles, Video Clips with our comments. This is an article that expresses our personal opinions about comments made on Television, Tweeter, and in Print. It is NOT intended to provide any investment advice of any type whatsoever. No one should base any investing decisions or conclusions based on anything written in or inferred from this article. Macro Viewpoints & its affiliates expressly disclaim all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this article. Investing is a serious matter and all investment decisions should only be taken after a detailed discussion with your investment advisor and should be subject to your objectives, suitability requirements and risk tolerance.

 

1.Our Main Man speaks & so smartly: 

Frankly, America would not be the same today without what Alexander Hamilton.

After legions of people calling us “stupid”, our Main Man says above that we might be “well adjusted”. Thank you Alex. 

2. Markets Last Week

2.1 US Indices:

• VIX down 6.9% to 15.04; Dow down 50 bps; SPX up 1.2%; RSP down 28 bps; NDX up 1.7%; RUT down 60 bps; MDY down 56 bps; XLU down 76 bps; SMH up 3.2%;

Hmm! Average low-volatility return of 19.4%!

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – BlackRock: The average ‘low volatility’ midterm-year return is 19.4% for the S&P 500 (n=11 since 1942)

Signor Rieder seems to agree as he said below to CNBC’s Scott Wapner: 

• “… the single-name volatility every day …. you almost reach a point – down 15% one day, up 12% the next …. I have become a bit more cautious … a lack of depth to some of these markets … we pulled back a decent amount of equity ; .. I still think, on the year, the equity market will have a pretty good year  – end up 15-20% on the year … but for the next couple of months …. there are a few flags,  the leverage built into the system.. some of the volume you see in Japan & Korea… But I have to say, the market is pretty resilient; … I like tech a lot but we have created more balance in the portfolio – financials, health care, some what you call quality … Some of the Semis, Semi-caps – when you look at valuations, looking at forward multiples, particularly if you are willing to go 2 years out .. you have 6 times multiples …”

 

On the other hand,

• (((The Daily Shot)))@SoberLook – The performance of “Old Era” stocks relative to the broader market has broken above a 15-year downtrend, signaling a potential leadership shift away from “New Era” stocks. Source: Paulsen Perspectives https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/scattered-thoughts-8be

Why doesn’t RenMac conclude their observations with a “do this” message? Their last line below made us think of Gamma & Delta, our preferred Greeks.

 

2.2 MAG 7:

• AAPL up 2.2%; AMZN up 1.1%; GOOGL down 76 bps; META up 14.8%; MSFT down 1.4%; NFLX down 5.5%; NVDA up 8.3%; MU up 38 bps; SOXL up 6%

Since when did “M” become a bad word?

• The Market Ear@themarketear – Jul 8 – Momentum (= AI) now -27% from 22nd June peak. This magnitude of sell off at such velocity has not been seen since Covid period.

 

Is the below a description of how bad it is OR a hint that it might not get any worse?

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – Tue 7-7 – $SMH below 50dma, could have its lowest close since May 21… worst RSI in more than 3 months

Highlighting the opportunity above:

• SentimenTrader@sentimentrader Tue 7-7 – Chip stocks bent without really breaking. SMH is down more than 10%, yet its Relative Trend Score is still near 10. After similar setups, SMH was higher 1 month later 90% of the time, with double digit median gains over 3 to 6 months.

 

Below are comments from Warren Pies about the move back into Mag 7 & new highs:

• “… we expect the market to make new highs this month … into July, the momentum factor, which is synonymous with Semis, has had a crazy 3-month run; so our projection was we would see a rotation in July into laggards which, specifically the Mag 7, would start getting a bid & Semis would have to cool off; that is what we have been seeing; …. there is so much skepticism about Cap-Ex from hyperscalars, from Mag 7; … when we track rental rates, when we track GPU availability, what we see is just crazy demand & they are going to print massive cloud revenues. cloud earnings based on this AI business & so it is going to start ratifying Cap-ex and that’s the part of the story we need in order to have this bull market keep going … you have the AI story, … & you get compute demand & that pulls forward memory stocks & Semis & all the hardware…. this backing off Semis & bidding up Mag 7  -that’s gonna bring us to new highs into summer, I think!”

 

 

2.3 Key Financials:

• BAC up 1.6%; C up 56 bps; GS up 3.4%; JPM up 60 bps; KRE flat; EUFN up 63 bps;  SCHW up 6.3%; APO up 1.5%; BX up 25 bps; KKR up 3.3%; XHB down 3.5%; ITB down 5%; NAIL down 14.4%; IGV down 1.2%; CRM down 1.7%; PANW down 6.4%; NOW up 1.3%

The most important chart is about this sector?

• J.C. Parets@JC_ParetsX – Jul 11 – The most important chart in the world right now is the S&P Bank Index finally breaking out above its pre-Great Financial Crisis highs. This week, it closed at another new all-time high.

And a golden cross!  

• Bespoke@bespokeinvest – Golden crosses (50-day crosses above 200-day as both are rising) for both Financials and Health Care yesterday:

 

 

2.4 – Dollar & Metals

Dollar was up 18 bps on UUP & up 10 bps on DXY:

• Gold down 46 bps; GDX down 3.7%; Silver down 1.9%; Copper up 1.8%; CLF down 4.7%;  FCX up 90 bps; MOS up 1.8%; Oil up 4.6%; Brent up 6.3%; OIH up 5.7%; XLE up 3.5%; PBR up 7.5%;

2.5 – International Stocks:

• EEM up 1.8%; FXI up 4.9%; KWEB up 5.6%;  BABA up 16.8%; EWZ up 4.4%; EWY up 1.9%; EWG down 1.9%; INDA down 52 bps; INDY down 53 bps; EPI down 70 bps; SMIN up 24 bps; IBN down 1.7%; HDB up 2.9%;

EM seems to be getting stronger. Chinese Tech ADRs are rallying strongly with Brazil now chiming in. Heck, even long-suffering Indian ETFs (loaded with old fashioned Indian companies) are hardly going down. 

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – $EEM – Emerging markets entering secular bull phase?

What about a specific market?

• J.C. Parets@JC_ParetsX – 7-6 – This breakout from a multi-decade base in Singapore over the past year is a much bigger deal than I think most people realize.

 

2.6 Treasuries & Interest Rates 

• 30-year Treasury yield up 7.6 bps on the week; 20-yr yield up 8.3 bps; 10-yr up 7.6 bps; 7-yr up 7 bps; 5-yr up 7.6 bps; 3-yr up 8 bps; 2-yr up 7.1 bps; 1-yr up 11.7 bps;
• TLT down 1.2%; EDV down 2%; ZROZ down 2.3%; HYG flat; JNK down 6 bps; EMB  down 22 bps

Hmm!

• Christian Fromhertz 🇺🇸@cfromhertz – 7-12 – $IEI/$HYG HY Credit Spreads back to record low levels , tight

 

2. Geo-Space 

2.1 NaPak Army + China vs. Indian Border Force & NaPaki people in NPOK & Baluchistan

This section is no longer the appropriate section to discuss strategic news & implications. This is now primarily a political & even military issue. We will report on what we hear & know in Section 3. 

2.2 Malacca Straits & India-Indonesia

Literally everyone now has heard of the Straits of Hormuz & how a relatively small waterway can literally stop commerce & be a reason for war. But, not many know that, the Malacca Strait, adjacent to Indonesia & very close to Indian coast, is much bigger in importance, especially to China. And the Strait narrows to merely 1.7 miles at one point. Why is this critical to China?

• “Nearly 70% of China’s maritime trade and over 80% of its seaborne crude oil transit this narrow chokepoint”,

The key name to focus on is Sabang port of Indonesia. We urge you to refer to our dated June 2018 with title ending inPresident Trump vs. Congress. This article shows the location of Sabang Port of Indonesia vs. the Indira Point on India. At that time, Indonesia permitted access to Sabang to Indian Submarines. China was livid & threatened retaliations.

That changed last week with Indonesia’s deal with India about joint development of Sabang Port, a deal that could prove to be a game-changer in the Indo-Pacific, especially since India’s own Great Nicobar based port & Naval-Air-Nuclear base in being built virtually next to Sabang.

 

PM Modi’s visit to Indonesia achieved a lot more. First, Indonesia signed a deal to acquire India’s Brahmos supersonic missile, becoming the 3rd country to do so after Philippines & Vietnam. And Indonesia became the first country to acquire Astra – MK1, India’s BVI air-to-air missile. (BVR means beyond visible range). 

The above are 2 of the 20-deals signed between Indonesia & India last week. As the clip titled Why PM Modi’s Indonesia trip is most significant so far points out:

• “Indonesia possesses some of the world’s largest nickel reserves and is emerging as a major source of minerals essential for electric vehicles, semiconductors, renewable energy stocks and defense products. China currently dominates processing of many of these minerals.” 

That is why India is investing in processing facilities of such metals in Indonesia. For us, the most significant benefits of this trip would be the Opening of a Campus of Indian Institute of Management, Bengaluru in Indonesia. Given the quality of Indian education & the relatively modest expenses, why haven’t other countries invited other Indian Institutes to open campuses in their country?

Not many know that Indonesia has the World’s Largest Buddhist Temple (left below) & the World’s 2nd largest Hindu temple (right below). 

 

And the most complimentary statement made by President was “They tell me I have Indian DNA… “. That is the true measure of what people across other lands feel about today’s India. After all, no one wants to claim DNA of another culture/race/country unless you respect that so much that you want to be a part of it.

His remarks were:

• “India, Indonesia have long, ancient history together; we have civilizational links. Even now, a very important part of our language comes from Sauns-Krut; our names, many names of Indonesia are actually Sauns-Krut names and, in our daily life, the influence of ancient Indian civilization is very strong. It is also a part of our genetics. I would like to report that , a few weeks ago, I had my genetic sequencing test & my DNA test. And they tell me that I have Indian DNA. And everybody knows when I hear Indian Music, I start dancing; it must be a part of my make-up” 

Nothing the President said is new. They have known it for a long time. But then, it was not a source of pride given how low India had sunk. Today, they are proud to admit to their Sauns-Krut heritage & Indian heritage because India is rapidly gaining real respect for its achievements & strengths today. 

Perhaps now some might realize why we get incensed when prominent Indian-origin Americans are so quick & eager to butcher their Sauns-Krut heritage just so they might curry favor with executives, anchors on Financial TV. Russia is another civilization with a deep Sauns-Krut heritage. But CNBC’s Steve Liesman ignores that continues to absolutely butcher Sauns-Krut heritage names like Raajan as Rajaan. But greater contempt should be heaped on people who allow themselves to be called Rajaan instead of Raajan. 

 

2.3 China’s nutty warning to Philippines & Japan

We have seen China lose its mental steadiness after PM Takaichi visited to India and the deals between Japan & India. This week China admonished Philippines for participating in the annual exercises with Japan. One reaction came from Secretary Gilberto Teodoro telling China to back off:

 

A similar stern warning came from General Romeo Browner, Jr. 

Guess how Japanese PM Takaichi responded:

And, the Trump administration and its diplomatic officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have warned China that Washington maintains an “ironclad” commitment to defend the Philippines, and that any armed attack on Philippine armed forces, public vessels, or aircraft will invoke mutual defense commitments under the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. 

And China also did something that many called reckless:

 

Frankly, we think this shows that China is indeed losing its poise. Everybody knows that China has nukes that can be fired using long-range ballistic missiles launched from submarines. Both USA & USSR have similar missiles but you don’t see them launching those to make some obvious points. Heck, even India now has submarine-based ballistic missiles that can attack China from all sides. But even India doesn’t launch those except for test purposes & with adequate notice.

And speak of losing its poise, China has now re-opened its fight with Japan regarding the Senkaku islands. The real problem is that these islands are located between Taiwan & Okinawa and close to the First Island Chain in front of China. This is probably a retaliation against Japan building a new relationship between India & Japan. How futile!

Was even Hitler dumb enough to go up against 3-4 countries located on both sides of Germany? He initially went after one country after another and even did a non-aggression pact with Stalin’s Russia to conquer France & Western Europe. 

Here China is going after Philippines, Japan, Taiwan & even Australia simultaneously while directly getting into armed conflict with India. (see section 3 below)! Guess Gods make them mad those they want to punish. 

 

2.4 Modi in Australia “from Chips to Ships”

Believe it or not, 18 new agreements were signed during PM Modi’s visit to Australia. The best way to get to the important part is to watch the clip below:

 

2.5 India & New Zealand – “Get on plane …go Learn Indian Consumer“

New Zealand’s PM had once worked in India for Unilever, the parent of India’s Hindustan Lever. He said he was stunned at India’s transformation & exhorted his business folks to Get on plane …go learn Indian Consumer.

We have spent so much effort on Modi’s visits to the Indo-Pacific & the Pacific because we feel that region is just ready to get serious with India on both defense & trade. 

Now we need to get to the other side and discuss the new Simon Legree method of using trade & military threats with countries. 

 

3. China & NaPakistan vs. India – Political Issues & Military Implications

Last week, we discussed the similarities of today’s firestorm in NaPakistan with that in 1971 in Bengali portion of that Napakistan. The conditions & the players are mostly the same. The common people fighting for their livelihood & basic rights are located now in the POK (Pakistani-occupied-Kashmir) and in Balochistan. The oppressors remain the so-called Pakistani Army & the so-called Government.

Open any non-Chinese or non-PakGovt publication to see the huge crowds who are protesting what the NaPaki Army & Army-run government are doing to them. The people in Balochistan are now absolutely fed up & they have organized themselves into a people’s army of sorts. They are desperately trying to get India & the Indian Army to get involved to give them freedom.

The main power supporting the Pakistani Army & the so-called Government is China. That is just like in 1971 with one huge difference. In 1971, the Chinese Army did NOT enter Bengal & merely provided assistance & funding to the Napak government. This time there were signs that units of Chinese Army or their frontier force had already entered the POK area claimed by both India & Napak.

That seemed foolhardy to us as we wrote last week,

• “Our guess is that, since the fight is within the Indian Subcontinent, the Indian military may have substantial advantage over the Chinese in this area and that may be why the conflict, if begun, will spread to other areas of the Line of Control between India & China & perhaps into the naval arena as well. What makes it more complicated is that Turkey is resolutely backing Napakistan & Israel is committed to fighting Turkey & Napak military.”

It seems that the design was much more malicious than expected. Media sources have claimed that there was a large & well-thought-out plan for the Chinese forces that had infiltrated PoK with Pakistani Army to attack the Indian border. The same sources have claimed that the Indian side, thru their intelligence sources, found out about this plan and took immediate action.  The media sources tracking this reported 3 days ago that Indian Intelligence had found out the various bunkers & also the specific bunkers in which 3 senior Chinese Commanders sent by China to lead the attack were based. The media sources claimed that the Indian side found out about the specific bunkers & had taken these 3 Chinese Commanders as prisoners. 

The capture of 3 Chinese commanders changed the situation & the Indian Government produced enough evidence to submit to the UN agencies. Understand the key point – this was a fight between the two governments – Pakistani & Indian. China is a 3rd country that is not a party. So the presence of Chinese army commanders or Chinese soldiers in POK makes China an expansive power in the UN lingo. Such expansionist entry made the case for the Indian Army to enter the disputed POK region.

From what we read, Indian forces have taken virtual command of the Neelam Valley & its 3 supporting ridges & removed Chinese presence from POK. If true, that lessens the international component of this situation. The news also suggests that all the positions & forward posts of the Napaki forces have been destroyed. 

What now remains is the enormity of the protests inside the POK & now in Balochistan. As media sources now claim, the Police in POK are now unwilling to take orders from NaPaki Rangers (of the central Government). Meaning the local state police are now increasingly with their brothers & sisters instead of the central Panjabi government. 

Balochistan is the large province in orange by the Arabian Sea and this province is, for all practical purposes, out of the reach of the NaPaki Army & the central forces. The POK is the orange province on the top right plus a thin strip in green coming down. The large yellow province on the top left is Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa, the Pakhtun province in which the Napaki Army doesn’t go. That leaves the yellow-orange province called Punjab against the Indian border. That’s where the bulk of the NaPaki army is from. 

 

 

 

 

July 15 is an important day for decision making ahead of the election a week later. We will see what happens. Below are two media clips that seem to present a serious approach to the situation. 

and from moneycontrol, believed to affiliated/linked to CNBC.  

This is so different than the disputes we see – like which strategist the Finance.com websites should cover. The only solution to the utter evil mess is that the horribly sounding Spiritual land called Pak-i-stan should be broken into 4 separate self-ruled states & governed without large, destructive weapons.

 

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