Interesting TACs of the Week (June 22 – June 28, 2026) – Hormuz III?

 

Summary – A top-down review of interesting calls and comments made last week in Treasuries, monetary policy, economics, stocks, bonds & commodities. TAC is our acronym for Tweets, Articles, & Clips – our basic inputs for this article.

Editor’s Note: In this series of articles, we include important or interesting Tweets, Articles, Video Clips with our comments. This is an article that expresses our personal opinions about comments made on Television, Tweeter, and in Print. It is NOT intended to provide any investment advice of any type whatsoever. No one should base any investing decisions or conclusions based on anything written in or inferred from this article. Macro Viewpoints & its affiliates expressly disclaim all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this article. Investing is a serious matter and all investment decisions should only be taken after a detailed discussion with your investment advisor and should be subject to your objectives, suitability requirements and risk tolerance.

 

1. Still the figure that matters the most?

As we put finishing touches to this article, it seems as if last week was a mirage. At this point, we have no idea what happens this week. Will this conflict end in simple exhaustion or a joint decision to return to the MOU? We still believe that global markets need Oil prices to stay down to preserve global economies.

 

2. Markets Last Week

2.1 US Indices:

• VIX up 12% to 18.41; Dow up 60 bps; SPX down 2%; RSP up 17 bps; NDX down 4.2%; RUT up 1%; MDY up 62 bps; XLU up 3.2%; SMH down 7.3%; 

Looking back a bit:

• Ryan Detrick, CMT@RyanDetrick – As we noted back on June 17, one of the historically weakest times of the year was here. The S&P 500 is currently down 5 days in a row and lower 7 of 8 days. Is this really a surprise?

But,

• Ryan Detrick, CMT@RyanDetrick – The S&P 500 advance/decline hit an all-time high on Friday. Breadth leads price and is another clue that new highs are coming and this surprise summer rally likely isn’t over.

The above is matched by sentiment. 

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – AAII bulls rose last week.. and now the GS US Equity Sentiment Indicator has soared to a multi-year high

For a stable oil based outlook, look below to the clip of John Flood of head of Americas Equities Execution Services at Goldman Sachs. He warned about Pension Rebalancing coming next week (June 29-June 30) with $30 billion worth US Stocks for sale for rebalancing. That is why he said he won’t be surprised to see some market weakness next week. He did add that such weakness would be a solid buying opportunity. 

And what comes after June 30?

• Ryan Detrick, CMT@RyanDetrick – Name a better month for the S&P 500 than July going back 20 years. I bet you can’t.

 

 

2.2 MAG 7:

• AAPL down 4.8%; AMZN down 4.5%; GOOGL down 8.3%; META down 4.7%; MSFT down 1.7%; NFLX down 4.6%; NVDA down 8.6%; MU down 15 bps; SOXL down 22.8%

This was the story we had much of last week. In fact, @themarketear smartly termed the Mag 7 as Lag 7 and pointed out that MSFT is in a bear market and  AMZN is at all-time-low valuation. And last week was pretty bad for Mag 7 as Ryan Detrick noted:

• Ryan Detrick, CMT@RyanDetrick – The Mag 7 fell 6% last week. The 493 was flat.

Hartnett of BAML said if MAGS (Mag 7 ETF) fell below $60, then it would be a “risk-off” summer. On the other hand, Torsten Slok of Apollo noted:

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – Mag 7 EPS growth remains superior to the Other 493. Torsten at Apollo chart

That brings us to the interesting clip of John Flood of Goldman Sachs. Mr. Flood is the head of Americas Equities Execution Services in Goldman Sachs Global Banking & Markets. That means his views reflect what he sees the world’s biggest investors do in their trading. In our opinion, that distinguishes his views from strategists & analysts who don’t see real action as he does. Below is a quick summary of what he says in the clip below:

• “… I still think we are in a buy-dip mode … I think the volatility will continue but the general trend of the market is higher & dips still present solid buying opportunities;  …. in the last two weeks, we saw the 1st & 2nd largest primary capital raises in the history of the US market in a 2-week period & the stock market didn’t blink; on our desk, we saw significant demand for these offerings; .. I am still watching Semis & Semi-Equipment; its where everyone is & continues to want to be … that trend higher will continue – Semis, Memory, Asia ” 
• “I think there are some attractive entry points within the Mag 7 complex right now … you have seen some hedge funds short Mag 7 potentially use it as a source of supply to make room …”
• ” Rates – higher inflation, higher interest rates might be the one thing that could break markets … our economist doesn’t think we get a rate hike between now & year-end; … the market will essentially take that as a rate cut; … earnings have been the driver of this bull-market & we think earnings will continue to drive the market higher …”
• “My favorite trade right now is to continue to lean into what is working; … high momentum is crowded right now; its crowded for a reason … I think Semis, Semi-Equipment, pockets of Korea & Taiwan continue to work … S&P 500 has a real chance to break above 8,000 in the near term …. whole lot of technicals are a tail-wind right now .. most importantly, earnings have been fantastic & they continue to be … “

Thanks to heavenly numbers from Micron last week, memory stocks are a topic of intense discussion. The clip below from Celine Woo, portfolio manager & analyst from Lazard Asset Management shares some light on that discussion:

 

• “…  Despite the fact that all the three major companies are scrambling to add new supply, there are three factors that you have to remember. Number one, manufacturing intensity. Manufacturing complexity is rising. Number two, capital intensity to open a new fab is getting more expensive. And number three, the difficulty of technology migration. Altogether are pointing out that overall supply demand balance will stay in favor of the memory stocks. “
• “on one hand, there are big spenders, big CapEx spenders that are trying to build new competitive positioning in this AI armish ways. But on the other hand, we find a lot of  exciting opportunities on the companies that receive these capitals. AI hardware supply chain, for example, I think that’s why there’s more to come. In fact, we just recently came from Asia where we sat down with a number of different companies in the supply chain. Everyone is telling how they are seeing an extended order visibility from customers, how there are more conversations about LTAs. Everything collectively is highlighting that demand continues to substantially exceed the supply, and that AI demand outlook remains pretty robust as well.”
• “For in the ETF context, it’s a very competitive market. … that’s why we focus on AI tech stack. And at the top of the stack, we have application layer. And this is, for example, where we are going to expect really large opportunities from physical AI. We think physical AI is going to be multi trillion dollar long term opportunity. Essentially, AI is important because it’s primary driver for productivity gains. And historically, productivity growth tend to translate to massive economic expansions. I think the same thing is gonna happen for AI. All the innovation we are seeing today is eventually going to open up very significant new end markets in physical AI, such as fully autonomous transformation transportations … As well as humanoid robots. That’s why we are really excited about physical AI. And in the meantime, that being said, it will still take couple of years for this to turn into actual corporate earnings. So here’s what we focus on instead. Companies with a vertically integrated manufacturing excellence that can speak to the market with scale advantage, for example, or open source platform that can expedite the acceleration, adoption, and everything. And lastly, global technology companies that can massively benefit from the mass adoption of the application in itself. Something to watch on and something we’re still pretty excited about.

 

2.3 Key Financials:

• BAC up 3%; C down 91 bps; GS down 7%; JPM up 1.2%; KRE up 4.8%; EUFN down 1.2%;  SCHW down 1.1%; APO down 14%; BX down 6.8%; KKR down 7.1%; XHB up 4.1%; ITB up 5.7%; NAIL up 7.4%; IGV down 1%; CRM up 4.3%; PANW up 5.7%; NOW up 3.5%

It seems pretty simple. The blue-highlighted gains mainly come from stocks that clearly & meaningfully benefit from falling short & long Treasury rates. The red-highlighted declines come from private credit folks whose credit quality presumably falls as lower interest rates highlight slowing economy & perhaps weakening credit. 

We don’t really understand this private credit-equity stuff & we absolutely have no idea if or when it would hit the public stock & bond markets. In this context, allow us to include a clip from the legendary Steve Eisman & his discussion with Tom Gallagher, life insurance analyst at Evercore. 

• “On episode 64 of The Real Eisman Playbook, Steve Eisman brings in Tom Gallagher, life insurance analyst at Evercore, to offer a second opinion on the controversial role private equity is playing in the life insurance sector. Tom walks through the history of private equity’s entrance into life insurance, and why companies like Apollo and KKR are taking on more risk. They also dig into the sector’s low valuations and why aggressive buybacks are more complicated than it seems.”

 

On a scarier level, watch-listen to the clip this week titled “Private Credit Default Rates Just Hit The Point Of No Return” from Eurodollar University, the folks who initially introduced us to the problems in private credit. 

If & when these fears get realized, it will impact the public markets. But, as we believe, history suggests that these problems don’t hit hard until September or the 4th quarter.  And, personally speaking, we are more focused on how & when the Hormuz mess impacts US markets.  

 

2.4 – Dollar & Metals

Dollar was up 57 bps on UUP & up 54 bps on DXY:

• Gold down 3.5%; GDX down 6.7%; Silver down 10.4%; Copper down 4.1%; CLF down 19%;  FCX down 9.1%; MOS down 2.3%; Oil down 10%; Brent down 9.5%; OIH down 2.6%; XLE up 13 bps;

King again!

• Markets & Mayhem@Mayhem4Markets – The strength in the US dollar is likely to continue to around 104. That, in turn, could put additional pressure on stocks, particularly multinationals, precious metals and crypto. The biggest relief valve would be seeing long-end rates drop. Particularly the 10-year yield that serves as a global benchmark. Often when yields drop the dollar will follow. Outside of that, buckle up. We may see some more volatility in the markets.

Re Oil:

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – 6-24 – WTI crude oil, a $69 handle, weakest RSI since March 2020, below the 200dma Its 50dma is 33% above the current price

 

2.5 – International Stocks:

• EEM down 5.1%; FXI down 5.1%; KWEB down 5.2%;  BABA down 11.5%; EWZ up 2.8%; EWY down 10%; EWG down 2.1%; INDA down 4 bps; INDY up 51 bps; EPI down 26 bps; SMIN up 1%; IBN up 5.8%; HDB up 2.7%; 

First a darling of so many in the old days:

A more solid tech investment? 

• Summary – Japan Bets $2.3 Trillion to Dethrone US and China in AI … Japan’s tech investment is projected to reach 370 trillion yen by 2040 to secure technological sovereignty. 23 mm in vertical AI

 

Two opposing views about a market that doesn’t get off the mat! First is negative despite the recent strength in Indian Banks like $IBN & $HDB.

On the other hand, JPMorgan’s Sajjid Chinoy asks  Is Foreign Money Set To Flood Indian Markets? 

 

Frankly, forget the above and focus on what Andy Jassy, Amazon’s President & CEO, said in announcing a $48 billion investment in India for the next 4 years.  

 

 

 

 

Once again, none of the above is reflected in the Indian Stock Market or the ETFs (BlackRock, Wisdom Tree et al) because those ETFS only own large leadership companies (meaning old enterprises) instead of the new sectors.

 

2.6 Treasuries & Interest Rates – Happy Days are here Again?

• 30-year Treasury yield down 4.6 bps on the week; 20-yr yield down 8.1 bps; 10-yr down 8.1 bps; 7-yr down 9.5 bps; 5-yr down 10.1 bps; 3-yr down 10.2 bps; 2-yr down 9.1 bps; 1-yr down 5.9 bps;
• TLT up 70 bps; EDV up 73 bps; ZROZ up 62 bps; HYG down 22 bps; JNK down 18 bps; EMB  down 29 bps

What is the data saying?

• Liz Ann Sonders@LizAnnSonders – June Services Index from @KansasCityFed
  slowed to 5 vs. 10 prior…employment down to 1 vs. 5 prior

and,

• Liz Ann Sonders@LizAnnSonders – May durable goods orders sank -4.4% y/y vs. +19.2% prior and fell into negative territory for the first time since February 2025

Perhaps that’s why:

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – 30yr yield plunging 8bps… $TLT
  just about its best day since last October +1.4%

Not often when you see a smart stock & options specialist speak about what he sees in bond volatility:

• Imran Lakha | Options Insight@options_insight – Everyone’s treating bonds as the asset where nothing happens. The MOVE index is on its knees, the FOMC done and yields are stuck in a range. The bond vol metrics are saying something more interesting. TLT implied vol is sitting at the 3.4 percentile, basically the lows. But realized vol is actually running above implied. You’re being charged less than the thing is already moving. … And the catalyst is loaded. The end-of-July FOMC is a live meeting, a real hike is on the table, and Walsh signalled less forward guidance and told the market to let the data do the talking. Less guidance means more surprise capacity, which might mean more rate vol, not less. Granted, the latest move was more a curve move than an outright shift. So you’ve got the cheapest vol on the board, realizing above its own implied, with a live Fed meeting coming. For me that’s an opportunity to get some asymmetry in the book.

 

3. This Can’t Be Real. But it is!

In an International T20 match in Ireland, teenager extreme Vaibhav Soorya-vamshi scored 100 runs off of 20 balls. Doing so in 30 balls was considered nearly impossible. But in 20! No wonder the entire Cricket World is mesmerized by this 15-yr old batsman.

 

What Vaibhav did was the “most explosive & destructive innings in the history of international cricket” and for the Irish national team, it was the “worst cricketing nightmare of their lives“. And this champ is only 15 years old!

Until now, the most explosive & destructive batsman in history was Chris Gayle of West Indies. Look what he said about Vaibhav:

• Chris Gayle Said , “I had already said that if anyone could break my record, it would only be Vaibhav Suryavanshi. I’m truly very happy today that Vaibhav Suryavanshi has broken my record for most sixes in a single season. Breaking this record at just 15 years of age is not an easy thing, and no one in the world has managed to do it at such an age. Vaibhav Suryavanshi is a special talent. A talent like him not just me, but many players like me have never seen in their lives. Truly, Vaibhav Suryavanshi is an extraordinary player. The BCCI should take proper care of him because he is going to become a huge asset for India. What a fearless player”

   

Wowzer! Feel great that Detroit Lines own a piece of him!

 

 

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