Summary – A top-down review of interesting calls and comments made last week in Treasuries, monetary policy, economics, stocks, bonds & commodities. TAC is our acronym for Tweets, Articles, & Clips – our basic inputs for this article.
Editor’s Note: In this series of articles, we include important or interesting Tweets, Articles, Video Clips with our comments. This is an article that expresses our personal opinions about comments made on Television, Tweeter, and in Print. It is NOT intended to provide any investment advice of any type whatsoever. No one should base any investing decisions or conclusions based on anything written in or inferred from this article. Macro Viewpoints & its affiliates expressly disclaim all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this article. Investing is a serious matter and all investment decisions should only be taken after a detailed discussion with your investment advisor and should be subject to your objectives, suitability requirements and risk tolerance.
1.Markets Last Week
US Indices:
- VIX down 5% to 14.96; Dow down 67 bps; SPX up 12 bps; RSP down 28 bps; NDX up 59 bps; SMH up 60 bps; RUT down 86 bps; MDY down 25 bps; XLU down 47 bps;
When is low too low?
- Subu Trade@SubuTrade – 12-27 – Is volatility too low? $VIX Term Structure fell below 0.76 for the first time in almost 5 years. $VIX was higher 9 out of 10 times, a week later.
And,
- Subu Trade@SubuTrade – Investors are going all-in. U.S. Equity Fund Flows spiked in the last 2 months. The last time this happened was December 2024. $SPX swung sideways for 2 months before falling significantly in March & April. Something to think about as we head into 2026…. cc @market_sleuth
Opinions from smart folks:
- Craig Johnson of Piper Sandler said “IT’S PROBABLY A BULL MARKET WITH A
LOWERCASE B, NOT A CAPITAL B“. - Warren Pies said – “We’re not going to go into a recession, but I don’t think we’re going to have some big inflationary boom either. So, it’s Goldilocks, and that’s going to be the defining feature for this market for, I think, the first half of 2026. I have a hard time coming up with what is the bear argument for 2026.”
But what about January?
- Subu Trade@SubuTrade – Interesting observation from @Mr_Derivatives: – Since 2008, January’s have alternated between “3 red Januarys” and “3 green Januarys” for $SPX; Will January 2026 be red for $SPX?
Key Stocks:
- AAPL down 1.7%; AMZN up 51 bps; GOOGL down 69 bps; META up 2.3%; MSFT up 1.5%; NFLX down 84 bps; NVDA up 3.4%; MU up 10.3%; BAC up 24 bps; C up 2.7%; GS up 62 bps; JPM down 41 bps; KRE up 24 bps; EUFN up 1.8%; SCHW up 2.3%; APO down 1.1%; BX up 27 bps; KKR down 4.4%.
Dollar was up 43 bps on UUP & up 32 bps on DXY:
- Gold up 95 bps; GDX up 2.5%; Silver up 8.6%; Copper up 2.5%; CLF up 4%; FCX up 3.7%; MOS down 9.2%; Oil down 1.4%; Brent down 1%; OIH down 4.8%; XLE down 3%;
Story of the week has been silver!
- Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – Day after Christmas be darned, $SLV dollar-volume is insane today @EricBalchunas
International Stocks:
- EEM down 96 bps; FXI down 1.2%; KWEB down 1.1%; EWZ down 6.5%; EWY down 1.4%; EWG down 19 bps; INDA up 1.9%; EPI up 2.3%; SMIN up 8.9%;
Stephanie Link of Hightower put INDA as her Fresh Money Buy idea on CNBC Half Time this week. She has been right with similar buys like GEV. And India has underperformed in 2025 with the currency becoming weaker. We keep hearing that the fall in the Rupee has, at least to an extent, helped with tariffs imposed on India. The news flow inside America is mostly about curbs on H1-B visas & number of Indian programmers from India. On the other hand, we keep being surprised with the positive flow into the real economy in India. So we focus on the pluses & minuses of Indian programmers in Section 2 below & on the transaction inflows just in the past 2 weeks from US & US allies in Section 3 below. On balance, we think Ms. Link will be proved right in 2026.
Consistent with Ms. Link’s theme, we insert an example below that also reminds of the unfair denial of our teenage dream by parents who were wrongly worried about our “impulsive & rash” nature. A bit late now for us to ride the F99 below on the Autobahn with top speed 265 kmph; 0-100 kmph in 3 seconds & 90kw/120 bhp power with killer looks (& 7,000 pounds cheaper than the Bugati) but those who can should give it a try:
Treasuries & Interest Rates:
- 30-year Treasury yield down 3 bps on the week; 20-yr yield down 3.5 bps; 10-yr down 4.1 bps; 7-yr down 4 bps; 5-yr down 5 bps; 3-yr down 5.3 bps; 2-yr down 4.1 bps; 1-yr down 2 bps;
- TLT up 14 bps; EDV down 67 bps; ZROZ up 57 bps;
From Sentiment Trader email of last week:
- Falling Bond Volatility can be Good for Stocks – Bond market volatility continues to ease. Historically, sustained declines in the MOVE Index have clustered within ongoing equity advances rather than periods of broad market stress. Risk always exists, but calmer conditions in credit markets have often aligned with more constructive equity backdrops.
2. Current & Deep concern about US Jobs & Programming Talent from India
Allow us to share an experience from Mumbai about incoming migration of workers & the intense, angry reaction from local Mumbai people about reduction in job opportunities and the emergence of a firebrand political leader who rose to power by harnessing that anger. Talented workers from the Southern state of Tamil Nadu had been entering Mumbai given the lure of jobs in that rich urban city. And these incomers were welcomed by Corporations & Businesses who found them bright & eager to work, even work late hours without overtime.
That sparked anger & resentment among the local people which was brilliantly used by a youngish leader from Mumbai. He rose to become the leader of Mumbai with a slogan, ” This is Our Mumbai” or Mumbai Aamchi Re“. He worked diligently to bring jobs to the local Mumbai youth & he succeeded in delivering simple jobs. But that didn’t materially affect the technology jobs that had begun growing.
What we saw in late 1990s in America was similar. Software programming jobs became abundant and initially Americans with tech degrees dominated the jobs. But in a few years, the growth in jobs available outpaced the supply of native Americans & so jobs started being offered to foreign employees, especially Indians. Part of the problem was also that many American students graduated to a large extent with Humanities education and not technology-software degrees.
So politicians & even social leaders exhorted American students to learn “coding” (writing source codes from programs). Ability to “code” or write software programs was hailed by leaders as the next big opportunity for young Americans. The programmers from India were sent back because the fears about Year 2000 had subsided.
Remember what happened then? Companies realized that editing existing software written by others was far more difficult than writing new software. At the same time, Indian companies began visiting California to offer services of the same Indian programmers who written the existing software. But the same Indian programmers would work from Benguluru, India & other places. On the other hand, the cost to the US companies would be 30% less.
Thus began the flood of outsourcing – transfer of routine software work to companies in India which proved much cheaper than hiring new programmers in US. An entire industry began that is now on the verge of peaking. And new American entrants into the new shining route to “coding” expertise found themselves stuck in a declining profession or lost jobs.
What we see today seems to be repeat of the late 1999-2003 period – the demand to get rid of foreign, mainly Indian programmers, the demand on companies to train US-born employees to do the same work. No one can identify companies or even employees at the companies who can train local university graduates to “do the jobs“. And even when such trainers are found & new students are trained, the real trouble is that the “jobs” are being changed to a new skill that even the “trainers” have not learned.
And the big new risk is that if American companies can’t find enough highly talented employees in the “new skill” in America, they can get up, leave & establish their centers where they can find the employees that can learn the “new skill“.
We ourselves have no clue what the “new desired skill” of the future might be. But we can point to one such “new desired skill” that is driving hiring companies to go where such employees with “new desired skills” can be found.
2.1 Migration from “Make” Skill to “Think” Skill
The old jobs even in high technology were designed to provide “cost advantage” that was key to driving profits. That created “outsourcing” or search for those who provide cost advantage. It was mainly “process” work or “make” type work. The earlier 1990s-early 2000s period was the golden age of process work. The speed & accuracy of how one did the process determined one’s success. The process was laid out by some one else & the employees would follow that process.
Today, leadership companies are moving to “Think” work by internalizing the tasks by building Global Capability Centers (“GCC“). These are captive units of global giants like JP Morgan, Walmart, Siemens and Boeing doing high value work – Data science, product design, cyber security, AI research, even R&D for electric vehicles and fintech.
GCCs are not vendors, they’re extensions of headquarters; GCCs don’t think of jobs; they think of ecosystems. And the king of GCCs is the United States of America. But is America or more importantly the American brain-system size large enough to meet the needs & demand from US & Global Corporations? We don’t know!
But what we do know is that India is already home to 1580 GCCs, employing more than 1.6 million people and contributing upwards of $100 billion into the Indian economy. And,
- “every year India adds about 100 new GCCs; …. the migration envisages close to 1900 centers employing more than 2 million professionals and contributing more than $130 billion to GDP; the office space they occupy will exceed 50 mm sq ft powering 40% of office demand in top 6 markets nearly the size of downtown Singapore;”
But how is India enabling this? Those who have visited Mumbai, Benguluru & the other top cities know that people barely have breathing room in those cities. How can these cities accommodate more centers? That is where India may be different. India & its agencies are working diligently to direct GCCs into India’s Tier-2 cities where life is more livable without migrating.
- “Cities like Indore, Coimbatore and Bhuvaneshwar have strong universities, reliable infrastructure and much lower costs of living. Their graduates are skilled but underemployed waiting for opportunities that don’t require migration.”
And results are beginning to be seen:
- “Kochi is developing a new tech corridor where IBM, USD Global and EY operate side by side. Indore once known for its cleanliness rankings is now home to R&D centers in Aerospace and Cloud Computing. Bhuvaneshwar is emerging as an analytics and fintech hub supported by top universities and Coimbatore famous for textiles is quietly transforming into a precision engineering powerhouse.”
As the clip below says:
- “By 2030, if projections hold, India could host nearly half of all global GCCs, ; the knowledge capital generated here in AI, Logistics, Design & Finance, will make India the world’s largest innovation ecosystem outside the United States“
One clear benefit of the above GCC migration would be to reduce the number of Indian professionals migrating to the US. But is that good for the American economy? Because the Indian professionals who choose to remain in India & work for US corporations & their GCCs will end up making India more prosperous. Is that good for America or will it lead US allies to increasingly work directly with India & Indian entities instead of with US?
Read how some US allies are already increasingly their interaction with Indian entities in many different spheres. The extent & depth of their interactions with India might surprise you.
3. India – US & US Allies
3.1 Aero–Space
Look what happened this week.
- A US-based company named AST SpaceMobile hired Indian Entity named ISRO to launch its 6,100-kilogram BlueBird Block-2 satellite into low-earth orbit. BlueBird Block-2 does something no other satellite system does at this scale. It delivers 4G and 5G mobile services directly to ordinary smartphones without any modifications, special equipment, or ground towers. Users do not need new phones, antennas, or apps. The satellite connects straight to standard mobile devices. ISRO’s powerful LVM3-M6 rocket lifted off, carrying the satellite to its intended orbit about 15 minutes after launch.
ISRO was reportedly chosen by American AST SpaceMobile because it has an excellent track record in accurate placements of satellites in low earth orbit. And clearly ISRO has to be less expensive than a comparative US launcher. And that has to be a major requirement for a private US company that is profit-focused on behalf its investors.
Frankly, we didn’t think much of the above AST SpaceMobile Satellite launch. Perhaps it was because it was the 8th or 9th launch by ISRO & it seemed more of the same.
Then mid-week we heard of the failure of the Japan’s H3 rocket fails to put satellite into planned orbit. Space.com reported:
- “However, the second stage engine’s second ignition failed to start normally and shut down prematurely,” officials with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) said in a statement early Monday morning (Dec. 22). “As a result, QZS-5 could not be put into the planned orbit, and the launch failed.“
A day later, we read that South Korean Rocket Explodes Post Launch from Brazil Space Center:
We were stunned because we had believed that Japan & South Korea are well ahead of India in technology & technology manufacture. Perhaps we were wrong!
3.2 Shipbuilding – South Korea
Speaking of South Korea, guess what was announced two weeks ago – “In the World’s Biggest India-Korea deal, South Korea’s HD Hyundai launched its First Mega Shipyard in India“. This is the first time a major Asian manufacturer has chosen India over China because, as they said “India has Talent, India has Capability“. The plan is to not only build ships but create a mega maritime hub. The Southern State of Tamil Nadu has already attracted $2.2 trillion in commitments in the last 4 years. And this shipyard is projected to add 80,000 jobs in Tamil Nadu.
Tamil Nadu has a rich & long maritime history. In 12-13 century CE, the Chola Dynasty came out of Tamil Nadu to conquer parts of Malaysia with its naval power. The town of Thoothukodi, Tamil Nadu has had naval trade relationships with Southern Europe since 6th century CE. Now open Google maps & look up the location of Thoothukodi. Draw a straight line from Thoothukodi & you hit India’s Andaman Islands (with India’s forward naval base) which virtually sit atop the Malacca Straits.
Now turn a bit south from Thoothukodi, turn right towards Africa, in particular towards Hobyo, the new port India is helping to build on the Somalia coast to enable land-locked Ethiopia & upper Africa get access to the Indian Ocean. Notice Hobyo sits on the Indian Ocean, a safe distance south of Dijbouti where many navies have their local base. Look at the map & decide where would your commercial & naval ships would rather be? Hobyo or Dijbouti? And, by the way, which port is Hobyo closest to on India’s west coast? INS Kadamba, India’s largest naval base at Karwar. Kudos to HD Hyundai for their smart selection of Thoothukodi for their mega maritime hub!
3.3 Semiconductors – Taiwan
Ask which US Ally is most worried about its future right now? Taiwan, in our opinion! And Taiwan’s worry might be realistically existential! For its independent existence, Taiwan critically depends on America. Yes, Japan of PM Takaichi is verbally committed to come to Taiwan’s aid if China attacks Taiwan. But Japan is nowhere close to US capabilities in resisting a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
So if you were Taiwan, would you not begin planning a transfer of its intellectual & technological capabilities to a safer place? A nuclear-armed military but democratic place that could & would resist China and keep Taiwan’s intellectual property safe!
Is that why Taiwan’s PSMC powering India’s $11 billion Semiconductor Fab in India’s Dholera, Gujarat? And why Taiwan is Building a ₹1000 CR ($1.1 billion) Tech Park in Karnaatak ?
3.4 Armaments & Strategic Defense – Israel
Taiwan is very important to America but we doubt if Taiwan has an emotionally committed & financially powerful lobbying ally inside America? Perhaps so but still not in the class of the pro-Israeli US lobby, in our opinion. And Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu understands the American political scene better than all other foreign leaders, in our opinion. That makes the clip below so stunning!
One of the early establishments of strategic concurrence is the recent Greece, India, Israel strategic alliance. The enmity between Turkey & Greece is well known & so is the occupation of half of Cyprus by Turkey. No one is more intensely against Israel while geographically away from Israel than Turkey which wants to re-establish the Muslim Ottoman Empire. And Turkey has inserted itself in the India-Napakistan conflict in the Indian subcontinent. So a politico-military alliance between Greece, Israel & India makes eminent sense. PM Modi has already visited the Greek part of Cyprus escorted by the Indian Navy.
Another aspect of the Israel-India relationship was perfectly illustrated recently with the Negev NG-7 adaptation by the Indian infantry.
- ” India’s AI-integrated Negev NG7 Light Machine Gun, manufactured domestically through full technology transfer from Israel, is redefining modern infantry warfare. For the first time, a private Indian defense company has become the primary supplier of a frontline infantry weapon“
- “The Indian Army didn’t treat the NG-7 as just a gun during the 2025 field trials, it was integrated into AI-powered smart weapon system including thermal imaging, advanced night vision, body-heat detection sensors, friend-foe identification. In conditions where human eyesight fails, this system keeps soldiers alert, identifies its targets automatically, adjusts aim & delivers precision fire even at extreme altitudes (like Ladakh at 14,000 ft). “
The Israeli share of Indian Defense purchases has fallen from 34% in 2018 to 9% currently. We hope that the new independent direction of Israel raises it back to a more significant share.
Note that everything we shared above (except one clip about Taiwan Semis at Dholera) is at most 3 weeks old. This, in itself, should point out the current pace of relationship growth between India & US Allies.
That brings us to the New India.
4. Dhurandhar
Remember our coverage two weeks ago of the lovely song from the 1951 film “Awara” in connection with the trip of President Putin to India. Putin’s remembrance of the hero Raj Kapoor was, we felt, very relevant to the Indian people liking him & his mission to India.
In the same vein, we want to highlight a new film that is already and will be for a long time the symbol of New India, a confident, aggressive India that responds violently to every attack on India. Every global analyst, every scholar at a Think Tank and every single TV host at Bloomberg, CNBC & Fox Business must watch this film called Dhurandhar, the best & memorable film we have ever seen in any language. Especially TV hosts who bring on old Indian-types who talk in pathetic softy terms & allow their names to be butchered on TV should watch this film. Because without seeing & understanding this film, no one can speak rationally about the New India.
Dhurandhar, pronounced “Dhu”-“run“-“dhar” (no “aa” sounds) is a Sauns-Krut term that means the stalwart/ foremost. We have watched it twice already at AMC 25 on 42nd Street in Times Square and both times there was NOT a single empty seat. We were stunned because this is a real, raw & violent film. But not a single woman left her seat even for a minute during this 3.5 hour film. And many told us that the film didn’t feel long at all. No Indian film has EVER been so accepted by the global audience. The film has already grossed over $1 billion in sales & that is despite the film not shown in Middle East.
This film stunned us. It is the most amazing film we have ever seen in any language. We have already seen it twice, once from a front row with head leaned back about 60 degrees & the second time from a back row. We were stunned again the 2nd time we saw it. And we will probably see it again for the 3rd time. Nobody who has seen other sweety-sweety Bollywood films with typical songs or any other film about violence can even imagine this film.
The real wife of the Superintendent of Police of Karachi that time, a major nasty, violent character in the film, went on Napak TV and said the film was real in its depiction of the police, crime lords & the ISI. The Afghans loved the film, the Baloch were ecstatic about the film because the atrocities against the Baloch by the police & ISI were shown for the first time.
Amazingly, the reaction of the Napaki people was surprising. The film is blocked in Napakistan but it has been illegally downloaded more than 2 million times. They claim to hate the film but the main wedding song is now played at major weddings in Napakistan. The role of Rehman Dakait , the villain & Balochi gang leader, is so spectacular that his opening steps of a Balochi dance are the rage in NaPak & the Middle East. And Bilawal Bhutto, the previous foreign minister & son of the late Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, recently entered a reception dancing to this Balochi song.
Many Napakis are angry that this film, despite being about their country, their gang leaders & politicians & ISI, was actually made in India by Indian actors. They keep asking why couldn’t they make this film. And the funniest comment was by a couple of politician-types was that the script was so real & so hard that it had to be written by Prime Minister Modi himself.
Watch the reaction of a couple of young Napaki women to Dhurandhar:
Finally an intelligent comparison of the effects of Dhurandhar to Schindler’s List by Spielberg titled How ADITYA DHAR is Doing for India What Spielberg did for Israel?:
Seriously folks, no one should speak a word about India, Pakistan, the foreign policy issues re the Indian Subcontinent WITHOUT watching & understanding this film. If you do, you rightly might be termed not just a bigot but a lazy, hateful semi-treasonous bigot to your profession and your country, especially USA. And if you do, you would also become a denier a la those deniers of the evils of Hitler & his Nazis either in 1940s-1950s.
When the vast majority of 1.4 billion people identify so much with a film, that film becomes a symbol of that society & country.
By the way, guess what we found as we were about to finish this article! We guarantee that Rehman Baloch would not approve & neither would Napakistan!
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