Summary – A top-down review of interesting calls and comments made last week in Treasuries, monetary policy, economics, stocks, bonds & commodities. TAC is our acronym for Tweets, Articles, & Clips – our basic inputs for this article.
Editor’s Note: In this series of articles, we include important or interesting Tweets, Articles, Video Clips with our comments. This is an article that expresses our personal opinions about comments made on Television, Tweeter, and in Print. It is NOT intended to provide any investment advice of any type whatsoever. No one should base any investing decisions or conclusions based on anything written in or inferred from this article. Macro Viewpoints & its affiliates expressly disclaim all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this article. Investing is a serious matter and all investment decisions should only be taken after a detailed discussion with your investment advisor and should be subject to your objectives, suitability requirements and risk tolerance.
1. Remember & Honor
Who can say it better?
Memorial Day. Each year on the last Monday in May, the Department of War joins the nation in honoring service members who lost their lives in defense of the country.
As the ancient Sauns-Krut declaration states:
Balidaan Paramo Dharmah:
Sacrifice is the Ultimate Dharma
2. A New Beginning in the Old Successful Way!
Kevin Warsh was sworn in by President Trump as the new Chairman of the US Federal Reserve on Friday, May 22, 2026. And, in his speech, Chairman Warsh remembered the longest & most successful Fed Chairman of our era – Alan Greenspan.
As we have written often, Chairman Greenspan was the last Fed Chairman who had Forward Vision, an attribute that was critically important for the growth of the US Economy in his tenure. The speeches by President Trump and Chairman Warsh with the visible happiness of Treasury Secretary Bessent set the tone to the day in which Stocks went up, Long-maturity Interest rates went down and Oil stabilized.
We are highly optimistic that this new trend will prevail for the rest of 2026. Thanks to Ryan Detrick for highlighting Tuesday’s clip below on X. We urge everyone to watch & listen o the three commentators whom we respect.
Below are a few excerpts from this clip:
- Ryan Detrick – During the past 5 quarters, the GDP has been around 2% – 45% of that has been AI & AI-related spending. But one of the areas which in the 2nd half of this year can do better is the labor market; un-employment rate is still near all-time lows; initial jobless claims around 200,000; ADP number continues to suggest better small business hiring; so … for 2nd half of the year what no one is talking about is labor; a labor market comeback will clearly help the consumer & potentially consumer spending; so we don’t have to rely so much on AI to keep the economy moving ; ….
- Warren Pies – “there have been 2 forces – Capex-AI buildup in the strengthening economy & earnings story on one hand & then the Strait of Hormuz closure on the other hand – they battled it out. Obviously the bullish factors have won. I do think it is about the resilient economy & the multiplier effect you get from all of this Capex spending … sales growth in the next 24 month … we have seen this ramp-up in analyst estimates …. it points to 6% nominal GDP which is robust growth; … in an post-1990s era, that’s quite robust … So I think that tech stocks & a lot of the AI build-out stocks remain kinda on the defensive side … the stuff that is interest-rate sensitive is going to struggle as long as the Strait is closed . …. So that people, if they want to participate in the earnings boom economy, they have to get into the tech space; … that’s where the focus has been & deservedly so … “
- Stephanie Link – we are in the 1st or 2nd innings regards to AI; … its the AI food-chain… its AI, its unique data centers, more data centers… then you need to get the grid upgraded because we don’t have enough power … all of those industries are benefiting because of all the cap-ex in most of the Mag 7s …. that’s up 75% … that is not going to change … those numbers are only going to go higher … maybe on a percentage basis, they slow down but they are still going to go higher in terms of Cap-ex… as long as that happens, lot of the parts of this economy are going to benefit … ”
On the other hand, watch & listen to Steve Auth of Federated, the bullish port in the storm as Jonathan Ferro of BTV Surveillance calls him. He sees 8,000 for this year & 9,000 for next year using different sectors & growth streams. His comments begin at minute 51:39 minutes of the Tuesday May 19 Surveillance clip below:
- “SOMETIMES YOU CAN OUTSMART YOURSELF. YOU ARE LOOK AT EVERYTHING AND SAY IT LOOKS REALLY BAD. BUT WE ARE NOT THE ONLY ONES WHO SEE THAT. I HAVE TO ASSUME THAT SOME COMBINATION OF DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT XI, THE WHOLE CROWD — THIS IS NOT GOOD FOR ANYBODY. I DO NOT THINK WE ARE GOING TO RUN OUT OF OIL. I THINK WE WILL FIGURE OUT A WAY TO SOLVE THIS.”
- “BOND YIELDS ARE UP BECAUSE INFLATION IS UP. BUT BONDS OF ASSET CLASS WITH A PROBLEM, NOT STOCKS. STOCKS HAVE ALWAYS BEEN AN INFLATION HEDGE. IT REALLY DOES NOT MATTER WHAT INFLATION IS DOING. IF YOU LOOK AT THE DATA AND SORT IT, AS LONG AS GROWTH IN EARNINGS IS STRONG, STOCKS GO UP, WHETHER IT IS DRIVEN BY INFLATION OR DRIVEN BY REAL GROWTH. IT DOESN’T REALLY MATTER BECAUSE STOCKS EAT NOMINAL EARNINGS.”
- “LOOK WHAT JUST HAPPENED IN THE LAST EARNINGS SEASON. 8 OF 10 SECTORS HAD DOUBLE-DIGIT EARNINGS GROWTH. PEOPLE TALK ABOUT A NARROW RECOVERY. IT’S ONE OF THESE FALLACIES. PEOPLE LOOK AT PERCENTAGE MOVES OFF OF LOWS.
ABSOLUTELY OFF THE LOWS, THE AI STOCKS HAVE DRIVEN THE RALLY PAY HOWEVER, YOUR TO DATE — I WAS KIND OF LAUGHING DURING YOUR LAST TELECAST. TALKING ABOUT HOW IT IS AI-LEAD, AND IN THE BACKGROUND, THEY ARE RETURNS ON EXXON, UP 33% YEAR TO DATE. VALUE STOCKS, SMALL-CAP STOCKS, EMERGING MARKETS STOCKS HAVE ALL PERFORMED DOUBLE-DIGIT, HEAD OF THE MAG SEVEN, WHICH IS UP 8%.” - “THIS IS NOT SIMPLY AN AI-DRIVEN RALLY. IT IS A BROAD RALLY. AI ITSELF IS SPREADING OUT. THE AI THEME KEEPS SPREADING, FROM ONE THING TO THE NEXT. IT IS ALL OVER THE ECONOMY. THIS IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES IN THE HISTORY OF MAN. AND THE TRAJECTORY OF EARNINGS NOW, BASED ON WHAT WE ARE SEEING AND WHAT HAS BEEN COMING OUT OF THE STREET, “
- “AS STREET ESTIMATES KEEP RISING EVERY DAY WE GO THROUGH EARNINGS SEASON, WE FOUND THAT OUR NUMBER — WE HAD A — WE USE A THREE-YEAR OUT EARNINGS NUMBER TO PROJECT A TWO YEAR FORWARD MARKET RETURN, WHICH AT THE TIME, WE WERE AT 8200. THE NUMBER KEEPS GOING UP. WE HAD A $400 EARNINGS ESTIMATE FOR 2028. WE WERE WAY AHEAD OF THE STREET SIX MONTHS AGO. I WOKE UP MONDAY MORNING, AND WE ARE BEHIND THE STREET. HOW COULD THAT BE? SO WE ARE AT 450. THAT IS WHAT IS HAPPENING. STOCKS ARE PASSING THROUGH, AND PRODUCTIVITY GAINS ARE HELPING THEM PASS THROUGH, AND THEIR MARGINS ARE GOING UP, NOT GOING DOWN.”
- “I TRY TO FOCUS OUR CLIENTS ON WHERE WE ARE GOING TO YOUR THAT HELPS CALM EVERYBODY DOWN. …. FOR SURE, AS I THINK STRATEGISTS, AND ALL THE ONES WE WERE GROWTH ARE TELLING US WE ARE OVERDUE FOR A PULLBACK AFTER A SHARP RUN-UP. ABSOLUTELY. ONE REASON WE WILL PULL OUT — PUT OUT A BULLISH NOTE LIKE WE ARE ABOUT TO DO HERE, AND YOU MENTIONED OUR NEW TARGET ON THE S&P, 9000 — WE ARE ALMOST ANTICIPATING A CORRECTION. WE WANT TO GET PEOPLE READY FOR THAT. THE SITUATION IN OUR MIND IS GETTING BETTER, NOT WORSE. BUT IT IS NEVER AS DEEP AS YOU THINK IT WOULD BE.
- WE JUST LOOK UNDERLYING IN THE ECONOMY AND WHAT IS GOING ON IN COMPANIES. WE HAVE 107 PM’S AND ANALYSTS AT FEDERATED HERMES, AND WE ARE TALKING TO COMPANIES EVERY DAY ALL OVER THE WORLD GET WHAT THEY ARE TELLING US IS THE SITUATION LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. THEY ARE ALL SEEING EARNINGS ARE EXPANDING, MARGINS ARE GOING UP, AND EARNINGS ARE GOING UP.
- IT LOOKS TO US, AS AI GETS MORE AND MORE ADOPTED INTO THE ECONOMY, THAT MARGIN EXPANSION TREND WILL CONTINUE. THIS IS ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HAS MADE US MORE BULLISH THAN THE AVERAGE BEAR OR AVERAGE MARKET INVESTOR. MOST PEOPLE KEEP TALKING ABOUT PEAK MARGINS.
- WE HAVE HEARD ABOUT PEAK MARGIN FOR A DECADE. YES, THE HAS ALWAYS BEEN TRUE. EVERY TIME SOMEONE HAS SAID THAT, WE ARE AT PEAK MARGINS. AND THE MARGINS KEEP GOING HIGHER, BECAUSE THE MIX OF COMPANIES IN THE ECONOMY IS GETTING INCREASINGLY MIXED TOWARDS HIGHER MARGIN BUSINESSES. EVEN THE OLDER COMPANIES ARE IMPROVING MARGINS, PARTLY BECAUSE THEY ARE USING AI.
- I THINK BONDS HAVE A PROBLEM, NOT STOCKS. STOCKS ARE GROWING EARNINGS AT
DOUBLE-DIGIT RATES. BONDS CAN’T GROW THEIR REVENUE STREAM UNLESS THERE IS A RATE HIKE. IN FACT, THEY NEED TO GET BOND YIELDS HIGHER TO COMPETE WITH STOCKS. BUT LOOK WHAT HAS HAPPENED WITH THE EARNINGS GROWTH READ THE LAST THREE YEARS. - IF THE FED TURNS AROUND AND HIKES, WHICH I DOUBT THEY WILL DO — IF YOU THINK ABOUT IT, IT’S LIKE A BIFURCATED ECONOMY. THE LOW END NOW IS BEING PROTECTED BY THE ONE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL. THAT’S OFFSETTING THE GASOLINE PRICE HIKE BY SIX TO EIGHT MONTHS. THE HIGH END HAS BEING — IS BEING PROTECTED BY THE WEALTH EFFECT. THE FED, IF IT RAISES RATES, WHAT IS GOING TO HURT IS THE INTEREST RATE-SENSITIVE PART OF THE ECONOMY, WHICH IS NOT AS BIG A HUNK OF THE ECONOMY IT USED TO BE. IT IS A PART OF THE ECONOMY THAT IS SORT OF IN A RECESSION NOW. … THE HOUSING MARKET IS A THING THAT IS STRUGGLING. THAT EMPLOYS A LOT OF PEOPLE. THAT IS AREA THAT NEEDS LOWER RATES. WARSH UNDERSTANDS THAT. I THINK IT IS REALLY UNLIKELY HE IS GOING TO HIKE. … IT DOES NOT HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH AI. THE INVESTMENT THERE IS BEING DRIVEN LARGELY BY CASH FLOW, NOT BY BORROWING. Targets – WE HAVE GONE TO 9000 THE UNDER 27, AND WE ARE AT 8004 THE END OF 2026.
We would recommend listening to comments by Jeff Currie (Oil-GS-Carlyle) at minute 39:50 of the above clip.
Since so much of the above is related to AI – size, growth, compute demand-, we thought we should include a sensible picture of why the big NVDA chips are still in such demand. Watch & listen to Ankur Crawford of Alger at minute 3:15 of the Bloomberg Close of May 19 below: Then we will make a request to Bloomberg & CNBC that the speaker below may not like. Below is a summary of Ms. Crawford’s comments below
- ” what is the biggest concern right now is demand; Sundar Pichai said internally that their token demand is doubling every 2 weeks; it was 500% growth – demand for intelligence & tokens in the last 4-5 months – it has only accelerated; so that is the key for NVDIA; as long as the demand is so strong, you need the chips that satisfy that demand;”
- “so does it matter what they do tomorrow (in NVDIA’s earnings)? Beat & Raise that’s great … if you have 10X performance for the same amount of compute cost, why wouldn’t you use it? that’s the most efficient way to get your intelligence out … so the idea of not wanting to use it ??? cheap is a sort of a misnomer because you always want to do it in the most efficient way …there is no reason for you to go & use an older chip – it will always be slower & you will use more electricity – you know electricity is scarce today … we are not concerned with who is taking share from whom … the pie is massive … “
Then she touched on software stocks:
- “remember these are trades, not investments ; which of these can really cross the chasm in the AI world .. which of these has actually a better outlook competitively is what you own … but the rest of these are challenged …. ” on average for enterprise software, we use 15-20% of the software package in part because these are generalized software packages that companies use – so why do you need the other 80%”?
Then she pooh-poohed the idea that rise in interest rates will damage this buildout and said it may be electricity supply that might impact the growth but its not going to be interest rates.
Now to our complaint about Ms. Crawford & our resultant request to both Bloomberg & CNBC. Yes, Ms. Crawford is smart, knows her stuff & can explain it. But frankly who cares? We listen because we need to get ideas about which stocks to buy. And she has proved brilliant in that regard. So Fin TV, insist that Ms. Crawford gives out her 1-2 favorite stocks, especially in the smaller mkt cap sector as she used to do so well when she was a new-comer to Fin TV.
We can’t ask her directly because we are not investors in Alger & perhaps more importantly because she doesn’t even know we exist. So FinTV, do us simple viewers of yr shows a favor & demand 1-2 stock picks from her when she comes on your network.
3. Markets Last Week
3.1 US Indices:
- VIX down 9.3% to 16.77; Dow up 2.1%; SPX up 86 bps; RSP up 2.5%; NDX up 1.2%; RUT up 2.7%; MDY up 1.7%; XLU up 3.4%; SMH up 3.6%; SOXL up 16.1%.
A view:
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – Bad vibes can mean good returns. 📉➡️📈Historically, buying stocks when consumer sentiment hits a trough yields an average 12-month S&P 500 return of +24.1%. Buying at a sentiment peak? Just +4.8%. Record low May sentiment, record high stock prices though JPMAM
3.2 MAG 7:
- AAPL up 2.9%; AMZN up 83 bps; GOOGL down 3.5%; META down 65 bps; MSFT down 79 bps; NFLX up 1.8%; NVDA down 4.4%; MU up 3.6%;
Speaking of Hyperscalars:
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – Sun – Hyperscaler FCF upturn imminent? 📈 Operating Cash Flow: Surging toward 40%+; 🏗️ Capital Expenditures: Skyrocketing to a record ~38% for data centers/AI ; 📉 Free Cash Flow: Squeezed to a bottom of ~2% before a projected recovery by 2028 JPMAM
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – Sun – Capital spending components as a % of GDP since 1947: 🔹 Intellectual Property & R&D: Gradual, relentless rise to the top (~5.5%).
⚙️ Equipment: Historically dominant, but structural decline over the last two decades.
🏢 Structures: Hovering near historic lows. JPMAM
3.3 Key Financials:
- BAC up 4.1%; C up 1.4%; GS up 5.1%; JPM up 2.9%; KRE up 3.6%; EUFN up 3%; SCHW down 80 bps; APO down 5.1%; BX up 53 bps; KKR down 3%; XHB up 3.8%; ITB up 5.2%; NAIL up 15.2%; IGV up 2.4%; CRM up 3.8%; PANW up 7.3%
Why Financials & Energy?
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi – S&P 500 sector valuations… Financials, Energy remain very cheap. $XLF $XLE; Industrials priciest… but you get some AI-buildout pixie dust there $XLI GS
3.4 – Dollar & Metals
Dollar was flat on UUP & up 3 bps on DXY:
- Gold down 1%; GDX down 2.7%; Silver down 1.2%; Copper up 1.7%; CLF up 8.8%; FCX down 1.6%; MOS up 3.5%; Oil down 8.5%; Brent down 5.1%; OIH up 78 bps; XLE up 8 bps;
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – Sun 5-24 – SPX indicated +1.5% in the last 24hrs on Hyperliquid; This is a chart of the top 10 most active perp contracts on there… Brent oil -7.5% d/d
3.5 – International Stocks:
- EEM up 1.2%; FXI down 1.9%; KWEB down 4.5%; EWZ up 39 bps; EWY up 1.8%; EWG up 3.7%; INDA up 83 bps; INDY up 35 bps; EPI up 67 bps; SMIN up 30 bps;
Just before Secretary Rubio arrived in India for a 4-day visit, US Ambassador Gor signaled a massive US-India breakthrough. And he titled it perfectly as “US Trusts India“. The ambassador revealed that CEOs from major American companies including Uber, Walmart, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and GE Aerospace are increasingly looking at India as a major investment destination. Seriously, watch & listen to his clip below:
A couple of days prior, President Trump cleared a massive $428 million deal for Apache Helicopters & M777 ultra-light howitzers — the exact systems India deployed along its China and Pakistan frontlines. As the Times Axis clip put it “Pakistan got photo opportunities. India got combat-ready firepower“.
We will wait for Secretary Rubio’s visit to be complete before we comment in detail on it.
Looking east, India & South Korea signed a series of key defense agreements to deepen military cooperation, expand joint production and strengthen ties in emerging areas like AI, cyber and autonomous systems.
Speaking of a key region, ask what was the main topic of a Indo-Japanese Enclave this week? Infrastructure: Can india Be Japan’s Global Production Hub? Looking thru the obvious front-line questions, we urge you to examine Japanese concerns in view of what happened to Israel in the recent Mid-East conflict. Japan is probably as exposed to Chinese missile attacks in case of a conflict. And Japan, like other Asian countries is examining backup business structures in a country that is farther away & safer from a Chinese Attack. That is a more relevant question for South Korea but Japanese industrial infrastructure is hardly fail-safe.
Something unusual happened earlier this week in Semiconductors:
- “Tata Electronics signed a strategic agreement with Dutch chip-equipment giant ASML to support India’s first front-end semiconductor fabrication plant in Dholera, Gujarat. The agreement, announced during Narendra Modi’s visit to the Netherlands, marks a significant shift in India’s technology strategy from chip imports to domestic semiconductor manufacturing. Tata Electronics is investing 11 billion dollars in the Dholera semiconductor facility, which will manufacture chips for automotive, mobile, artificial intelligence and advanced technology sectors. ASML will provide critical lithography systems, while Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation will support chip manufacturing technology across multiple process nodes.”
And following PM Modi’s successful visit. Norway has announced a $100 billion investment in the Indian Economy. And his recent trip to Italy might launch an India-Italy Naval Deal:
And we hear talk that Italy has offered the city of Trieste as a hub for the IMEC corridor.
But nothing above matches the absolutely stunning development we heard this week. More than below.
3.6 Treasuries & Interest Rates:
- 30-year Treasury yield down 5.8 bps on the week; 20-yr yield down 6.6 bps; 10-yr down 3.7 bps; 7-yr down 2.7 bps; 5-yr down 0.4 bps; 3-yr up 2.6 bps; 2-yr up 4.2 bps; 1-yr up 3.6 bps;
- TLT up 1.2%; EDV up 1.8% ; ZROZ up 1.9%; HYG up 57 bps; JNK up 55 bps;
So,
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – 10yr TIPS yield of 2.15% is actually above the historical average JPMAM; Don’t dismiss bonds
4. So Beyond amazing!
Everybody in the world gets that Na-Pakistan just hates India. It is a deeply-held searing hate that burns everything gentle & good inside them. So many thought that as India flies past them in economic development, military power & respect in the world, they would kinda wake up & ask if & how they might want to change. And so many have been so wrong & for so long.
They never realized why those morons called themselves Pakistanis – the word Pak meaning spiritually pure. That term, they told themselves, made them purer & far better than Indians. So there was never any hope for them UNTIL they reembraced Hindu thinking, styles, names & religious tales. And THAT would never happen until & unless Hell freezes over. They thought so & so did everyone in India.
That is why the MOST AMAZING CHANGE has happened in that ultimate of Pak-Panjabi cities, Lahore. You won’t believe it but Lahore is re-embracing its Hindu-Sikh-Jain heritage. Sorry, we are so pathetic to say re-embracing. After all, Lahore is NOT just adding a few things here & there that remind people of Indian heritage.
NO! They are deleting important or even sacred Muslim names of major places in Lahore and replacing them with pre-1947 Hindu-Sikh-Jain names. Look what the Times Of India Axis wrote:
- Rehman Gali is becoming Ram Gali again; Islampura is reverting to Krushna-Nagar, Babri Masjid Chowk is now again official Jain Mandir Chowk.
Who is doing this? Some underground Hindu activists? No. This is an official Heritage Revival Project undertaken by Mayor Maryam Nawaz, daughter of previous Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.
What drove this? Why is this happening? We know. Not just we know but we feel it within, Nay, we are absolutely certain what is driving the real old leadership of Lahore to do this.
It is the stunningly amazing success of Dhurandhar 2. Remember we pointed out the Netflix in Pakistan crashed when the film was added. Because a huge number of Na-Pakistanis logged in to watch & that load crashed Netflix. Think a bit. It is a film that shows brutally violent killings by an Indian agent of Religious Muslim leaders & their army of zealots. And he is not a pathetic Gandhi-Nehru bootlicker who forgives & forgets in the name of perverted Humanity.
And they watched the Indian filmmakers & actors make humongous monies with this film & its part 1. And they couldn’t take it – this was their story; the story that takes place in their land, their city showing their people being killed by an enemy Indian agent. And they couldn’t take it because those Indians were making Humongous monies with their story, their people & their saga. It was the ultimate defeat & they realized they are just being passed by.
So the smart leaders of Lahore under the leadership of Maryam Nawaz realized that if they were ever going to get up, it would be by going back to what they were before the Partition. The only way was to get the Hindus-Sikhs-Jains to come back to Lahore to make films, build businesses. That was the only way to make Lahore Great Again.
Kudos to Maryam Nawaz, her father and the smart leaders of Lahore. We sincerely hope this amazing act of contrition & reversal succeeds.
And yet, hardly any one in New York Fin TV watched either Dhurandhar 1 or the amazingly stunning Dhurandhar 2. And it has already become one of the top 10 films of Netflix worldwide.
A lesson again for the think-tunkers & bozos. Change doesn’t come to the Indian Subcontinent from writers, influencers or even leaders. Serious change often springs from a film that stuns the minds, opens eyes & hearts.
Send your feedback to editor.macroviewpoints@gmail.com Or @MacroViewpoints on X.
