Interesting TACs of the Week (August 3 – August 9, 2026)

 

Summary – A top-down review of interesting calls and comments made last week in Treasuries, monetary policy, economics, stocks, bonds & commodities. TAC is our acronym for Tweets, Articles, & Clips – our basic inputs for this article.

• Editor’s Note: In this series of articles, we include important or interesting Tweets, Articles, Video Clips with our comments. This is an article that expresses our personal opinions about comments made on Television, Tweeter, and in Print. It is NOT intended to provide any investment advice of any type whatsoever. No one should base any investing decisions or conclusions based on anything written in or inferred from this article. Macro Viewpoints & its affiliates expressly disclaim all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this article. Investing is a serious matter and all investment decisions should only be taken after a detailed discussion with your investment advisor and should be subject to your objectives, suitability requirements and risk tolerance.

 

1. “US Economy is a marvel”; “productivity revolution”; and Thanks to “LA” beyond doubt. 

Actually we will thank LA first. Obviously we are not referring to Los Angeles but to the situationally utterly unaware Leopold Aschenbrenner. We are truly thankful to him for creating phenomenally juicy market levels to bite into. How long that benefit lasts will be discussed in the next section. 

Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Bessent described the US economy as a “marvel”. That might have been a bit poetic but, in reality, the Secretary was actually holding back his praise. Look what one who might have been his colleague, Rick Rieder, said on Bloomberg after the Jobs Report. 

• “I think the economy is operating at an amazingly strong level; you are going to see 6% nominal GDP; corporate top-line revenue is strong; earnings are strong; operating revenue is strong; earnings are strong; … you are seeing operating leverage for companies kick in; … companies are growing; they are spending immense amounts of Cap-Ex; … I think we are seeing a productivity revolution; … years from now, when they summarize this, it’s an ethos around companies growing their business & seeing how you can operate … without that much employment … “
• “this was a pretty amazing quarter of earnings; … you actually see multiples coming down because earnings are growing so fast …”
• “in Bonds, we are trying to be as boring as you could be; take the risk in equities and in equities with higher volatility in single names … Core PCE is going to come in at mid 2s next year; our sense is inflation is slowly moderating; … hiking rates doesn’t make a lot of sense today” … 

And to summarize the fact that “nattering negative nabob“s* don’t get, Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley said on CNBC Fast Money on Thursday: (* expression of David Rosenberg in section 2.5 below)

• ” I do like the fact that Kevin Warsh & Scott Bessent are in these seats; they are markets-focused  & I think they are being pro-active; they don’t want to have to be reactive“

Another way of putting it is that Kevin Warsh & Scott Bessent use “forward intelligence” while the previous leadership & many still in the FOMC use “backward intelligence“. And who was the last Fed Chief is practiced “forward intelligence” without confessing to do so? What a huge relief to see Fed Chair Warsh openly profess to follow the example of Chairman Greenspan!

It may not be politically smart at this time to point out that the man who chose both Mr. Bessent & Mr. Warsh deserves quite a bit of credit. But then, we have never been accused of being politically smart or even simply smart.

 

2. Markets Last Week 

2.1 US Indices:

• VIX down 7.6% to 14.88; Dow up 3%; SPX up 3.6%; RSP up 2.4%; NDX up 5.3%; RUT up 3.5%; MDY up 3.3%; XLU down 1.7%; SMH up 7.8%; SOXL up 22.25%

What did the illustrious Bob Farrell call what happened this week?

• Walter Deemer@WalterDeemer – Bob Farrell used to call these things “Buying Stampedes.”

But even a buying stampede can get tired out. Is that why Warren Pies began using terms like “largely played out”.? 

• “it kinda worries me to see target-raising now; but in chip stocks, there is so much hedging; volatility was so high with that group; we were pretty confident we put in a low with the semiconductors; we thought the recipe of higher index was for hyperscalars to come thru; that is what happened; I think it is largely played out; I think we have a couple of more weeks left in this grind higher; then the market will have to start thinking about macro concerns & things like that; I wouldn’t be surprised to see us take our equity-overweight back down to neutralize that; I think it is getting closer to the end of this big rally; you can see it, you can feel it in sentiment too; I think everyone is getting wrapped up looking into the rear-view a little bit; “

If we recall correctly, Signor Pies had made a similar call early in Q1 to step to neutral which proved to be smart & timely. He then went to over-weight stocks in mid-April. 

On the other hand,

• Bob Elliott@BobEUnlimited – 8-9 – One of the most well tenured (and trusted) sentiment measures on wall street hasn’t been this bullish in 30 years. h/t @Chartfest1

 

What does Katie Stockton, a CNBC technician say?

 

•  “the correction was really very significant; as of this month, we do have a reversal of this correction; it is significant at least for the next few weeks; the long-term uptrend has definitely lost some upside momentum; but as it advances thru this corrective phase providing relief for those who got caught on the downside;’
• “the initial hurdle is right at the 50-day moving average; above that we start to look at the June highs as the next resistance; that’s about 13%-14% above the current levels  … could be a significant relief rally“

Lawrence McMillan of Option Strategist added:

• “…. $SPX has broken out to new all- time highs, and has not fallen back below the old highs at 7620. That makes the $SPX chart bullish again, for the first time in a while. Targets are always nebulous things, but this could take $SPX to 8,000 or so.”

And,

• Ryan Detrick, CMT@RyanDetrick – 8-9 – Two weeks ago, we said new highs would come sooner than later because the S&P 500 advance/decline line was breaking out. This call wasn’t popular because AI/memory was weak, but once again, market breadth leads price. Closed at another ATH on Friday. Classic bull behavior.

On the other hand,

• The Market Ear@themarketear – Aug 7 – Nobody wants downside protection anymore. That’s getting interesting.

 

2.2 MAG 7:

• AAPL up 1.4%; AMZN up 1.1%; GOOGL down 51 bps; META up 6.4%; MSFT up 7.6%; NFLX up 3.4%; NVDA up 11.6%; MU up 6.6%; IBM up 6.1%; IGV up 8.6%; CRM up 4.8%; PANW up 9.7%; NOW up 12.3%; PLTR up 39.8%

In her clip above, Katie Stockton also alluded to the Software sector:

• “two significant charts – software vs Semis – Oracle support around 120; that held ; also a MACD divergence saw a higher low; … Similar in ADBE, CRM … “

And the reality:

• The Market Ear@themarketear – 8-9 – AI or die. The 92% of the US economy that is not AI is growing at about 1% with a downward trajectory.

 

No wonder Richard Saperstein & other smart guys keep focusing on large cap hyperscalars & the beneficiaries of the buildout: 

 

2.3 Key Financials:

• BAC up 2%; C up 1.9%; GS up 2.1%; JPM up 1.6%; KRE up 20 bps; EUFN up 1.9%;  SCHW up 2.2%; APO up 1.5%; BX up 7.3%; KKR up 1.4%; XHB up 6.9%; ITB up 7.2%; NAIL up 21.7%; 

Look what a fall of 5-7 bps in Treasury yields did for the Housing-dependent ETFs, especially the triple-leveraged NAIL. 

Also does a fall in interest rates also hint at reduction of problems in Private Credit focused financials? Or is there another reason for BlackStone to be up 7.3% this past week?

 

2.4 – Dollar & Metals

• DXY down 37 bps; Gold up 7.3%; GDX up 21.3%; Silver up 10%; Copper up 89 bps; CLF up 6.4%;  FCX up 11.2%; MOS up 4.3%; Oil down 9.3%; Brent down 9%; OIH up 90 bps; XLE down 3.4%; PBR down 7.4%;

Allow us to repeat what J.C. Parets posted last week:

• “The ETF is sitting right on top of an important support zone defined by a shelf of pivot lows from last year. At the same time, the 14-period RSI is flashing a bullish divergence, with momentum improving even as price has struggled to make new lows. Risk is well defined here. Now the ball is in the Dollar’s court. As long as the DXY remains trapped inside its range, the backdrop for Gold continues to improve. And as long as GLD holds above 360, I think the thesis remains intact. This is a hard trade, and I could absolutely be wrong.”

JC proved absolutely right. Kudos to him for a great call. And Tavi Costa highlighted the important move in the miners on Tuesday. 

• Otavio (Tavi) Costa@TaviCosta – Tue 8-4 – Very important move in the miners today. This may be the most profitable period in the modern history of the mining industry. Game on. https://tavicosta.substack.com/p/list-of-breakouts

Did this signal work out by Friday?

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖MikeZaccardi – $GDX – +22% this week.. almost the best 5-day rally in its two-decade history (ex COVID, GFC)

 

Last week, we had also highlighted the call on Copper by JC’s colleague Strazza. And FCX duly went up 11.2% this week. But that raised a flag among some smart folks:

• SentimenTrader@sentimentrader – Copper made a new high. The futures market isn’t backing it up. Copper hit a 252-day high while its curve sits in the bottom 30% of the past year. After similar setups, its median return was negative over the next 1 and 2 months. The edge only showed up at 3 to 6 months. Read full analysis: https://users.sentimentrader.com/users/blog/paying-close-attention-to-copper–6-8-2026

 

2.5 – International Stocks:

• EEM up 2.4%; EMXC up 2.8%; FXI down 90 bps; KWEB up 60 bps;  BABA up 5%; EWZ down 3.6%; EWY up 5.7%; EWJ up 4.9%; EWG up 2.7%; INDA up 1.1%; INDY up 1.2%; EPI up 1.6%; SMIN up 2.7%; IBN up 77 bps; HDB down 1.3%;

For those who like low PEs:

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – 8-7 –  EM P/E valuation… lowest since 2014 at 10x GS $EEM – $VWO $IEMG

Now what if EM earnings were to double in 2 years?

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – 8-7 – EM EPS could double from 2025 to 2027; $EEM $VWO $IEMG  GS

And,

• Alfonso De Pablos, CMT@AlfCharts – 8-9 – Emerging Market currencies continue to strengthen against the Dollar. $CEW just hit a fresh 8-year high. Worth watching.

After all that fancy yield-talk from Signor Rieder, how about looking at “shareholder yield”?

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – Japanese buybacks are through the roof… if you are looking for shareholder yield... GS

Finally in the last section of the Katie Stockton clip featured in Section 2.1 above, she focuses on EWG/SPY or Germany over the US market. That has already broken above 50, she says & calls it a breakout from a triangle formation (a high probability setup). We think this is an interesting idea indeed. 

2.6 Treasuries & Interest Rates 

• 30-year Treasury yield down 5.9 bps on the week; 20-yr yield down 6.5 bps; 10-yr down 7.1 bps; 7-yr down 7.6 bps; 5-yr down 7.8 bps; 3-yr down 7.5 bps; 2-yr down 8 bps; 1-yr down 4.5 bps;
• TLT up 62 bps; EDV up 1.5%; ZROZ up 1.6%; HYG up 16 bps; JNK up 14 bps; EMB up 61 bps

Remember our Rosie-rule? Once you are in the month of June, you start focusing/playing what David Rosenberg says/writes. It is working out this year.

• David Rosenberg@EconguyRosie – Thu 8-6 – Unit labor costs are running at +1.4% on a YoY basis and productivity has accounted for nearly 90% of the growth in nonfarm business output over the year to Q2, and every nattering negative nabob is still harping about inflation. There’s a bull market all right. In obtuseness.

Somebody needs to teach Signor Rosenberg some real words instead of gentle terms like “obtuseness”. Interesting that “obtuseness” & its contrary term “acuteness” are both negative terms. Usually at least one of the two contrary terms is a positive. Clearly only an economist would two negative terms when one usually suffices. 

Signor Rosenberg was much more intense on Friday after the employment report:

Rosenberg also commented on the spread between S&P real yield & 10-yr real yield:

• “…. the real yield on the stock market is 2.4% while the real yield in the long bond is close to 3% — close to an epic negative equity risk premium of −60 basis points.”

Yet he did not say Buy T-Bonds as he would have said before. If he is reticent about buying Treasury Bonds, might that actually suggest that T-Bonds are actually attractive, kinda like diffidence of JC Parets about Gold last week actually proved to be a great call.

Below is a summary of what Tom McCllelan wrote this week about economists & about Fed Economists in particular. 

• “Economics is a field where the scientific method is not applied very well.  The scientific method holds that one should form an hypothesis, then test that hypothesis ideally via experimentation, and then after seeing the test results one should revise the hypothesis as needed.  But economics does not lend itself well to this framework, because it is really hard to do an experiment where one holds all other variables constant.  So economists instead formulate a hypothesis, see if it works in Greek letter equations, write a paper about it, and then retire to the bar or the faculty lounge.  Any data which conflict with the elegance of the hypothesis must be anomalous, or promulgated by someone with an agenda.”

Applying this to the particular, McClellan wrote:

• “Like most economists, the ones at the Federal Reserve seem to think that better jobs data means more inflation, and thus they should fight that inflationary force by raising interest rates.  These economists all went to expensive schools to learn about that relationship, so it must be true, right?  Not so fast.”

But the mystery remains. Why didn’t David Rosenberg make a call after Friday’s Employment Report to Buy 30-year Treasury Bond or even the 10-year Treasury Note as he has done on several occasions in the past year or two? That is interesting!

 

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