Summary – A top-down review of interesting calls and comments made last week in Treasuries, monetary policy, economics, stocks, bonds & commodities. TAC is our acronym for Tweets, Articles, & Clips – our basic inputs for this article.
- Editor’s Note: In this series of articles, we include important or interesting Tweets, Articles, Video Clips with our comments. This is an article that expresses our personal opinions about comments made on Television, Tweeter, and in Print. It is NOT intended to provide any investment advice of any type whatsoever. No one should base any investing decisions or conclusions based on anything written in or inferred from this article. Macro Viewpoints & its affiliates expressly disclaim all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this article. Investing is a serious matter and all investment decisions should only be taken after a detailed discussion with your investment advisor and should be subject to your objectives, suitability requirements and risk tolerance.
1. Markets Last Week
1.1 US Indices:
- VIX down 4.2%to 14.26; Dow down 56 bps; SPX up 36 bps; RSP up 1.2%; NDX up 92 bps; RUT up 1.1%; MDY up 1.1%; XLU up 1.6%; SMH up 88 bps; SOXL up 3.4%
The above summary doesn’t show breadth while the below highlights it:
- Alfonso De Pablos, CMT@AlfCharts – 8-15 – Advance-Decline Lines are hitting new all-time highs across major indexes and every part of the market-cap spectrum. This is what broad participation looks like.
And,
- Jay Kaeppel@jaykaeppel – 8-14 – Reasons for concern? Absolutely. BUT the
@Sentimentrader Aggregate Signal Model remains firmly bullish. What’s a disciplined, long-term trend-following investor to do?
Below is an encouraging message reposted by someone we have quoted before:
- 3X Long Labubu@labubu_trader – 8-14 – This is the best setup for semi bulls, KOSPI and SMH’s vol is dipping hardly while the index is growing steadily. This means pump and dump PODs and HF, 3x plus leverage retailers were all washed out, less mentally-illed long term funds are buying now. Will semis have a parabolic move as April/May? Probably not. Will semis moving up steadily in Aug? Probably yes.
On the other hand, Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research did what he hinted at last week on CNBC. He downgraded equities to neutral from over-weight. But his reasons seemed different from what he had said the week before. This week, his reasons were focused on the Fed possibly raising interest rates in September. He said he still thinks the Fed should remain in hold because the Fed is already restrictive. He does add that this Fed is now political and September is probably the only chance they have to raise rates. Everything he says in the clip below are argues that a rate hike would be a mistake but he still thinks the Fed will go ahead and raise rates. And that rate hike might create a negative for the stock market and that’s why he is downgrading stocks to neutral from over-weight.
On the other hand,
- Alan Cohen@al_xdpg (reposted by TraderZ) – 8-16 – $QQQ The McClellan Summation Index is suggesting we are starting another bullish run. It isn’t perfect but for now I plan to err on the long side.
1.2 MAG 7:
- AAPL down 2.4%; AMZN down 4.3%; GOOGL down 2.4%; META down 38 bps; MSFT down 92 bps; NFLX up 5.4%; NVDA up 54 bps; MU up 10.7%; SNDK up 35.4%; IBM down 1.3%; IGV up 1.4%; CRM up 1.8%; PANW up 5.6%; NOW down 70 bps; PLTR up 1.2%;
Will Momentum stocks follow the logic of JPMorgan?
- (((The Daily Shot)))@SoberLook – 8-14 – Momentum stocks are now cheaper than the market based on forward P/E. Source: J.P. Morgan Research
Can you say Momentum without bringing up AI?
- Trader Z@angrybear168 – 8-16 – $SMH/$QQQ – daily ratio chart 8/21 cross over on watch here, been a solid signal for the resumption of the AI trade so far.
1.3 Key Financials:
- BAC up 2.1%; C up 3.2%; GS down 2 bps; JPM up 1.5%; KRE up 2.3%; EUFN up 26 bps; SCHW up 3.2%; APO up 10.5%; BX up 5%; KKR up 10.9%; XHB down 1.6%; ITB down 2.3%; NAIL down 7.2%;
Since European Banks are also key financials,
- Eliant Capital @eliant_capital (reposted by JCParets) – 8-16 – We’re in such a big AI bubble that European Banks have outperformed the Mag-7 since ’22
1.4 – Dollar & Metals
- UUP up 14 bps; DXY up 7 bps; Gold up 54 bps; GDX up 9 bps; Silver up 1.6%; Copper up 6 bps; CLF down 2.9%; FCX down 4.5%; MOS down 6.3%; Oil up 6.9%; Brent up 7.9%; OIH up 8.5%; XLE up 7.7%; PBR down 45 bps;
The below surprises us unless the Dark players are active in bulk crude:
- Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – 8-15 – China’s crude oil imports have fallen like a rock. Fidelity International
What about Gold?
- Daily Chartbook@dailychartbook – 8-11 – “A weekly gain of this magnitude has occurred only five other times in more than 70 years. The last instance, in 2016, was followed by an 85% gain in the index over the next 26 weeks.” -Dean Christians, Turning Point Market Research
1.5 – International Stocks:
- EEM up 1.5%; EMXC up 2.7%; FXI down 3.5%; KWEB down 5.8%; BABA down 3.6%; EWZ down 4%; EWY up 8.2%; EWJ up 1.4%; EWG up 32 bps; INDA down 1.2%; INDY down 1.5%; EPI down 1.5%; SMIN down 64 bps; IBN down 1.6%; HDB down 1.1%;
1.6 Treasuries & Interest Rates
- 30-year Treasury yield up 6.3 bps on the week; 20-yr yield up 5.1 bps; 10-yr up 4.3 bps; 7-yr up 1.8 bps; 5-yr up 0.5 bps; 3-yr down 1.4 bps; 2-yr down 2.8 bps; 1-yr down 2.9 bps;
- TLT down 87 bps; EDV down 1.5%; ZROZ down 1.8%; HYG up 13 bps; JNK up 17 bps; EMB down 20 bps
Markets went into last week almost petrified by the prospect of getting hotter CPI & PPI. Guess what actually happened per Rosenberg Research:
- This week’s CPI and PPI prints, both disinflationary, landed where our Chart of the Week suggested they would, with the NFIB small-business survey showing pricing intentions collapsing back to pre-war February levels. On the other side of the ledger, today’s retail sales print added the demand-side confirmation: the consumer is losing steam. Bond markets are already pricing another Fed hold. Equities are still processing.
That didn’t do much for the long end of Treasury market. Actually long term bonds keep falling:
- Ryan Detrick, CMT@RyanDetrick – 8-11 – Nice chart from @FrankCappelleri in his note today showing long-term bonds are back to their 2023 lows. Could it really break lower? If so, rates will continue to move higher.
But that is only 3 years ago. How about a longer term picture?
- Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – 8-11 – 30yr yield near those 19-year highs… 5.26%; 30yr TIPS comfortably above 3% too
Is the above because of fear of Fed raising rates in their September meeting? Possibly because the majority of the committee was reared on Powell’s backward intelligence. Neal Dutta of RecMac gave another reason for the looming rate hike:
- “I think the bond market is underpricing the risk of a hike in September …. If they don’t get it done by September, they don’t get it done at all“
That message might propel the backward-intelligence packed FOMC into tightening in September. We don’t think they care even a bit but they should take a look at what Tom McClellan said on Thursday, August 13 – High Yield Bonds Continue To Warn of Trouble
We think it would be a good idea for all to read this article. In the meantime, a few excerpts below:
- The daily A-D Line for high yield corporate bonds peaked back on Feb. 19, 2026, and has been in a downtrend since then. This is bad news for the stock market.
- At the moment, we have a still intact divergence from April to June 2026, and this HY Bond A-D Line is still below its 5% Trend. These bonds are struggling to keep up with the SP500, and not doing well.
- in late 2021 …… A big divergence developed versus the SP500, and then by 2022 this HY Bond A-D LIne was in an ugly downtrend, ahead of the bear market which followed in that year for the stock market. The canary dying in the HY bond market was right about the trouble coming.
- We have a similar message now, but no sign of trouble yet from the SP500. It is possible that whatever is bothering the HY Bond market could resolve itself. That could happen. For now, though, it is saying that there are liquidity problems like ones we have seen before, and this serves as a warning just as we hit the big seasonal weakness due in September.
Kinda like what Warren Pies used as his reason to downgrade equities to neutral in Section 1.1 above!
2. Geopolitical events of import?
While we have been somewhat critical of economists, especially those who are servile to the current FOMC, we must point out that those folks are far far above their counterparts in geostrategy. Witness the utter & total nonsense in US media about the so-termed “Islamic NATO” consisting of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan & Turkey!
First of all, this artificial construct has obvious advantages for America because this “NATO” seems directed at today’s Iran and designed to protect Saudi Arabia, the main $-provider. We understand the panic in Saudi Arabia but which one of these three “powers” can really protect Saudi Arabia? Turkey is far away and would be stupid (something Erdogan is not) to send troops into Saudi Arabia & Saudi would be utterly nuts to allow Turkish troops in Saudi Arabia. Lawrence of Arabia & Peter O’Toole would be awestruck at this stupidity.
Who does Saudi Arabia need protection from? Probably Iran in Saudi nightmares and Houthis of Yemen in daylight panics. Remember Saudi Arabia originally attacked the Houthis & that turned out to be a mini-disaster for Saudis. Houthis remain the main danger because they can attack the surviving oil pipelines into Yanbu on the Red Sea. Turkey can’t & won’t get in there. So that leaves Na-Pakistan to send troops, planes & missiles to fight off the Houthis? In case you haven’t heard, Munir of NaPak, has publicly refused to fight (or allow the NaPak troops in Saudi to fight) with Houthis. Smart of Munir but that leaves open the central question how this Islamic NATO would protect Saudi Arabia.
That brings us to NaPakistan. They are smart & fortunate to land these juicy memberships for their central objectives –
- to make as much money they can from Saudi Arabia and
- their hidden, unspoken primary objective – a place where the Generals of NaPak army can escape to when their current habitat gets very hot & dangerous for them.
Look how hot their current habitat has already become for the NaPak army leadership based in Punjab below:
In case you haven’t heard, the Baloch people & their leadership pronounced the Independence of Balochistan this week on Tuesday August 11. The Baloch population might be small but their geographic position is huge – 44% of Napak territory sandwiched between the Arabian Sea to the south and the TTP-managed Khyber-Pakhtunkhawa to the north. TTP supports the Balochi battle against NaPak army. And look, to the west lies Iran & Iran’s Balochi province.
Watch & listen to Mehrang Baloch, the Lioness of Balochistan make the pronouncement below:
Three days later, on India’s own Independence Day of August 15, Mir Yar Baloch , in his congratulatory message to India,
- “highlighted what he described as deep historic, civilisational and spiritual links between Balochistan and India. He also offered to open Balochistan’s seaports to Indian trade, saying the move could support PM Modi’s Make in India initiative and contribute to India’s economic ambitions. The Baloch leader invoked the Hinglaj Mata Temple in Balochistan as an important spiritual connection between the two sides. He also sharply criticised Pakistan’s position on Balochistan and urged the international community to challenge Islamabad’s narrative.”
Now go to the orange right hand top corner of the above map to Napak-occupied Gilgit Baltistan & the small green strip of Napak-occupied Indian Kashmir. These two areas are now in open revolt against the Napaki-Army and both the UN & US have warned the Napak-army about human rights abuses of the population.
If that was not enough, look what the Trump Administration did this week:
- “The U.S. State Department’s 2026 Fiscal Transparency Report has raised serious concerns over Pakistan’s defence and intelligence spending, citing a lack of parliamentary and civilian oversight. While Pakistan publicly documents standard finances, billions in off-budget military imports remain shielded. The audit comes as Pakistan hiked its 2026–27 defence budget by 17.65% to 3 trillion rupees, alongside the signing of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.”
How long has the US allowed the Napaki military leadership a carte blanche is spending money? So why this demand for transparency now? Is it a direct pressure on Munir to start proving his & his army’s value by helping against Iran or is it a clear statement that USA cannot tolerate massacre of civilians who are seeking democracy in Napak-Occupied Kashmir?
Look at the map & see that the NaPaki military leadership is only relatively safe in their own province of Punjab & that is only until they provoke the Indian Army to come in. So where can the Napaki military leadership escape to with some loyal regiments if necessary?
To Saudi Arabia, ostensibly for the protection of the Saudi Royal Family. That is the primary purpose of Napakistan in this Islamic “NATO”. But Saudi Arabia’s open invite to come in will not remain for long, especially if Saudi Arabia realizes getting Napak army into Riyadh, Jeddah might be even more dangerous for them.
3. Netflix, Dhurandhar & lessons for US TV, including Fin TV
If you watched the Mehrang Baloch clip above, you would see the real Balochis do the dance from Dhurandhar, the phenomenal film of 2026. Those who recall might remember how we praised Dhurandhar as a film. Obviously very very few even bothered to watch. Guess that is the difference between them & the Netflix management. Watch Ted Sarandos, CEO of Netflix say at 00:19 of the clip below:
- “.. that (Dhurandhar) is the most watched non-English movie in the world on Netflix this year“.
Now keep watching the above clip for another 1:30 minutes to get reactions of non-Indians watching Dhurandhar.
After Dhurandhar, the world is now aware of the content from India coming to them from Netflix, YouTube & other distributors. That makes India an important market for media companies, especially for media companies which are not wearing blinders.
That brings up a key risk for those media companies. Most of the TV talent in America is clueless about critical names, events in Indian history. So their gut reaction is to pronounce important Indian names any way they feel like. And in most of these situations, the people from India don’t correct them for fear of appearing rude or making their hosts upset. Frankly, in our opinion, the bulk of the blame has to go to the Indian-origin guests. If they were to stop & correct the pronunciation of the Host, that might solve the problem in most cases.
A bigger problem is that parents in India or parents of Indian-origin in America give highly important names to their children without explaining the meaning or the correct pronunciation to them. These kids grow up knowing only what their parents knew or told them and end up causing a nasty reaction.
Add to that the deficiencies of English writing. For example, English script only has 5 vowels while Sauns-Krut has 12 with a different vowel for “a” or “अ” vs. “aa” or “आ”. When used at the end of a noun, the “आ” vowel makes the noun feminine. A common name is “Krushn” (masculine) for the name of the Avataar of God, while the common US spelling “Krushna” wrongly pronounced as “Krushnaa” makes it feminine, an enormous insult. In our experience, 99%+ of all US anchors & hosts have no desire to be insulting but they are told not to worry and keep saying “Krushnaa” for male names as well.
When used at the beginning of a noun, the two vowels “अ” (“a”) and “आ” (“aa”) have a derivative meaning. Take the case we saw-heard this past week. The name “Aditya” is a momentous name that goes to the beginning of Indian civilization and it is a very popular name for men in India though horribly written & pronounced. Given its humongous importance, allow us to eloborate.
Aditi was a woman of momentously historical importance in Indian history with the Aditi-period beginning at around 6,400 BCE. The “a” in the parent becomes “aa” in the children. So her sons were named “Aa“ditya. The British didn’t care and the current Indian practice is still Brit-servile. So you meet so many ignorant or meek Indian men who go by Aditya instead of Aaditya thereby creating an unnecessary insult.
In our opinion, the entire responsibility for the correct pronunciation has to borne by the Indian-origin guests on US TV. And if they fail in avoiding a insult, then they should NOT be re-invited on that network. The trouble is, as we have heard on multiple occasions, the blame for the racist mispronunciation is heaped on the US TV network & host.
No one can expect a Non-Indian origin US TV host to know this stuff unless they have heard this a few times. For example, we do think the name of the Shri Krushna is now more commonly pronounced with the “a” or अ instead of the feminine “aa” or “आ”. By the way, Krushnaa means a dark-complexioned woman & usually refers to a princess of the Mahaa-Bhaarat of such enormous sensuality that no man could ignore it.
Finally the same applies to women. A very common aspirational name for women is Gaargi. The original Gaargi was a great philosopher around 4,000 BCE, as beautiful as brilliant. She was the daughter of Sage Garg, a great philosopher & teacher. Think what she must be if girls keep being named after her even 4,000 years after her. (Our extended family has two girls named Gaargi).
But look around & notice that almost all women with that name spell their name as Gargi, as the British did. Some of these women have achieved so much in their careers but still can’t find the courage to get rid of the monstrous British mistake & reclaim their name as Gaargi.
To be absolutely clear, the above is for the protection of the US TV networks & their screen talent from being accused of prejudice, racism when the fault of mispronunciation lies usually with their Indian-origin guests.
The above ignores the meaning of the woman named Aditi & her history along with her sister & counterpart Diti. That story is just phenomenal & has everything in it. And their tale marked the beginning of the war for supremacy that went on for centuries with Aditi & her descendants being pure, moral, powerful and Diti’s descendants being avaricious, immoral & powerful.
4. Spread of Old Influence of India
Until very recently, hardly any one wanted to hear about India, Indian poetry or any of that. It had been slowly improving until Dhurandhar burst forth. We sense the same appeal in India in geopolitics. Below is a range of content that is now resurfacing again. And since we began Section 2 with Balochistan, we will begin this section with Balochistan as well.
4.1 Balochistan – Liberation Anthem to Lord Shiva & Hinglaj Mata (4 minutes)
4.2 NaPakistan-Occupied-Kashmir – A Kashmiri Girl in POK Sings to Shiva | Neelkanth Kashmir (3:39 mins)
Read the lyrics along with the video
4.3 AFGHANISTAN – Her Voice Was Silenced in Gandhar | Sharan-e-Shambhoo (4:18 min)
4.4 – Iran – Mast-e-Kailash (Male Version) (3:53 min)
4.5 -Latin – Rare Lord Shiva Song in Latin | Dominus Montis Dominus Shiva (5:04 min)
4.6 – China –Lost Lord Shiva Song | Aye Shankara (3:52 min)
4.8 – An Israeli Girl Sang for Lord Shiva in a Himalayan Valley | Shalom Namaste (4:28 min)
- Aug 11, 2026 – A bridge between two of the world’s oldest spiritual traditions. Set in the winter, this raw acoustic field recording captures the journey of Yael, a young Israeli traveler who journeyed from Jerusalem to the Parvati Valley, Himachal Pradesh after her military service.
- The Original Shankar MahaaDev Stotram from about 12,200 BCE – composed by Emperor Raavan & Rendered by Aroora.
Finally from the new to the origin – the most famous Shankar Stotram of all times, composed in ancient Sauns-Krut by the Great Raavan, the Emperor of the Dark in his quest to be all-powerful. According to modern linguistic analysis based on over 200 astronomical observations described in the original Raamayan (story of Shri Raam), the battle between the Aryans led by Shree Raam & Rakshas led by the Great Raavan took place around 12,208 BCE. So the song precedes that because its composition began the rise of Raavan.
What you see & hear below is the young & modern rendering by Aoora group of South Korea. The pronunciations are perfect. It is perfect for teaching the song & lyrics to the young kids of today regardless of whether they understand the words. We have done this with a 2.5 yr old in our family.
And as the ancient & forever articulation says – Har Har Mahaa-Dev.
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