Interesting TACs of the Week (August 17 – August 23, 2026)

 

Summary – A top-down review of interesting calls and comments made last week in Treasuries, monetary policy, economics, stocks, bonds & commodities. TAC is our acronym for Tweets, Articles, & Clips – our basic inputs for this article.

• Editor’s Note: In this series of articles, we include important or interesting Tweets, Articles, Video Clips with our comments. This is an article that expresses our personal opinions about comments made on Television, Tweeter, and in Print. It is NOT intended to provide any investment advice of any type whatsoever. No one should base any investing decisions or conclusions based on anything written in or inferred from this article. Macro Viewpoints & its affiliates expressly disclaim all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this article. Investing is a serious matter and all investment decisions should only be taken after a detailed discussion with your investment advisor and should be subject to your objectives, suitability requirements and risk tolerance.

 

1. Markets Last Week

In a departure from our usual sequence, we begin with the Treasury & Interest Rates section first given the Treasury actions declared by Secretary Bessent.

1.6 Treasuries & Interest Rates 

• 30-year Treasury yield up 1.7 bps on the week; 20-yr yield up 1 bps; 10-yr up 4.8 bps; 7-yr up 5.6 bps; 5-yr up 6.8 bps; 3-yr up 6.2 bps; 2-yr up 6.3 bps; 1-yr up 4.1 bps;
• TLT up 1 bps; EDV up 13 bps; ZROZ up 2 bps; HYG down 13 bps; JNK down 10 bps; EMB down 35 bps:

The simplest commentary came from David Zervos. In summary it was simply that “Treasury Secretary Bessent is the only bond vigilante that matters“:

• “I THINK IT’S A TACTICAL MOVE THAT WE’VE SEEN CONDUCTED MANY TIMES IN THE PAST. THESE ARE BASICALLY OPERATION TWISTS, AND THEY’VE BEEN HUGELY SUCCESSFUL. WHEN THE FED HAS INITIATED THEM. THEY’RE SOMEWHAT MORE UNUSUAL WHEN THE TREASURY INITIATES THEM. BUT I DON’T SEE HOW YOU COULD FIGHT THIS WHEN THE FIREPOWER AND THE CARDS ARE ALL SITTING IN THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT. SO WE’LL SEE. THERE COULD BE SOME FIGHTS FOR A LITTLE WHILE, BUT I’M NOT EXPECTING THE THE TRADITIONAL BOND VIGILANTES TO WIN ANY BATTLES HERE. BUT WE ARE AT THE TOP END OF THE RANGE. IT IS A TIGHT RANGE. SARAH. WE HAVE BEEN IN THIS RANGE FOR ALMOST TWO YEARS, 390 TO 481 OF THE TIGHTEST RANGES FOR AN ALMOST TWO YEAR PERIOD THAT WE’VE SEEN SINCE THE THE MID 2000 AND THE GREAT MODERATION. “

And David Rosenberg told Sara Eisen in a subsequent interview that:

• “I watched your segment with my friend, David Zervos, and I would tend to agree with him. I mean did you want to fight the Fed with those multiple QEs?”

Eisen had the political sense to say “No“. Then Rosenberg added:

• ” THE $4 BILLION DIDN’T IMPRESS PEOPLE. BUT I THINK THAT RIGHT NOW IS JUST TESTING THE WATERS. I MEAN, THERE’S $4 TRILLION OF MARKETABLE DEBT OUT THERE. THAT IS TEN YEARS MATURITY AND MORE. SO I GET A SENSE THAT IF HE HAS TO, HE’LL TAKE OUT A BIG BAZOOKA, NOT UNLIKE WHAT BEN BERNANKE DID. AND THEN THE NEXT QUESTION IS, YOU KNOW, IS KEVIN WARSH GOING TO BE PLAYING BALL IN TERMS OF WHAT THE FED DOES … “

Then Rosenberg gave his opinion about the stance of the US Government:

• “I think, look, the Government has drawn a line in the sand that it is not going to allow the 10-yr to get to 5%“.  

Now it might be time to get to the beginning section of the above clip that shows Sara Eisen trying to, perhaps, appease her own constituency of anti-Administration, anti-Warsh economic community, especially the loyalists of the Powell Fed, asked the following of Secretary Bessent”

• “A LOT OF THE ANALYSIS HAS FOCUSED, AS YOU KNOW, MR. SECRETARY, WHICH IS, YOU KNOW, STRONG SIGNAL FROM THE ADMINISTRATION ON ON THE BUYBACKS. BUT, YOU KNOW, THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE ULTIMATELY WHAT IS WHAT IS GOING TO PREVAIL HERE IN THE BOND MARKET. AND THE FUNDAMENTALS ARE HARD TO IGNORE WHEN IT COMES TO THE SIZE OF OUR DEBT. WITH PUBLIC DEBT INCREASING TO NOW $40 TRILLION“

It is one thing for Steve Liesman to question Secretary Bessent about bond market fundamentals but it is the height of ludicrous & ignorant arrogance for a Sara Eisen to do so. But Signor Bessent is a pro & he handled it gently:

• “LOOK, SARAH, THERE’S NOTHING MAGIC ABOUT THE 40 TRILLION NUMBER AND WE CAN GROW OUR WAY OUT OF THAT. SO BUT WHAT WE DO WANT TO SIGNAL IS I THINK THAT THERE’S BEEN A LOT OF MISINFORMATION IN TERMS OF WHAT’S GOING ON WITH THE DEFICIT, WHAT’S GOING ON WITH THE DEFICIT TO GDP. WE ACTUALLY HAD A FISCAL CONSOLIDATION FOR THE CALENDAR YEAR 2025. WE HAD WE WERE AT ABOUT 5.7% OF GDP. AND ONE OF THE THINGS THAT’S TEMPORARY HERE THAT’S INFLUENCING THE DEFICIT HAS BEEN THESE TARIFF REFUNDS. AND WE WON’T HAVE TO DO THAT AGAIN. “

Then Sara gave him a “full-toss” (Cricket terminology) to hit out of the park – “SO DO YOU THINK WE’VE SEEN PEAK DEFICIT DURING THIS ADMINISTRATION?”

And the answer from Treasury Secretary Bessent – “I THINK A VERY, VERY GOOD CHANCE WE HAVE“. 

Now go back to the above Eisen-Rosenberg clip at minute 1:38 when Sara Eisen asks “WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF ALL THIS, DAVID?” And David says:

• “WELL, I THINK THERE’S A LOT OF MERIT TO WHAT SCOTT BESSENT HAD TO SAY IN TERMS OF THE DEFICIT PEAKING, BECAUSE MOST OF THE FISCAL GOODIES IN THE ONE BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL ARE IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR. AND NOW THE GOVERNMENT IS RAKING IN A LOT OF TARIFF REVENUES AFTER A PERIOD POST SUPREME COURT, WHERE THAT WAS PUT ON HOLD. SO I HAVE NO PROBLEM WITH THAT”
• “I WOULD JUST SAY WITH REGARD TO, YOU KNOW, THE COMMENTARY ABOUT THAT, THIS IS ALL ABOUT FISCAL POLICY AND $40 TRILLION OF DEBT. THAT’S NOT WHY BOND YIELDS HAD BEEN GOING UP OVER THE COURSE OF THE PAST FEW MONTHS. I MEAN, IT WAS JUST BACK IN LATE FEBRUARY THAT THE TEN YEAR TREASURY NOTE YIELD WAS TRADING BELOW 4%. AND IT’S NOT AS IF SINCE FEBRUARY THAT FISCAL POLICY HAS REALLY CHANGED.”
• “I MEAN, THE THREE CHANGES HAS BEEN THE WAR THAT’S HAD AN  IMPACT ON THE RISK PREMIUM IN BONDS. WE ALSO HAVE A NEW FED CHAIRMAN WHO, AS WE SAW AT THE LAST MEETING AT THE PODIUM, DIDN’T SEEM WILLING OR ABLE TO ANSWER QUESTIONS ABOUT HOW THE FED INTENDS ON GETTING INFLATION DOWN TO 2%. SO THAT’S EMBEDDED ANOTHER LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY. AND YOU DON’T WANT TO OWN DURATION WHEN YOU HAVE THAT LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY, WHERE THE CENTRAL BANK CHAIRMAN CAN’T ANSWER THAT QUESTION.”
• “BUT THE REALLY BIG ISSUE THAT’S HAPPENED IN THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS IS NOT BEEN ABOUT FISCAL ISSUANCE. IT’S BEEN ABOUT THE SURGE IN LONG DATED ISSUANCE BY THE HYPERSCALERS. RIGHT. THAT’S WHAT’S TAKEN THE THAT THAT IS WHAT IS, YOU KNOW, THE THE CHART OF NEW LONG DATED ISSUANCE FROM AI RELATED SPENDING. NOW THAT THESE THREE OF THE FOUR HYPERSCALERS ARE FREE CASH FLOW NEGATIVE, THEY’RE HAVING TO GO TO THE CAPITAL MARKETS. NOW, THAT’S BEEN THE CHANGE. AND THAT’S COMPETING FOR THE GOVERNMENT FOR FUNDS AT THE LONG END OF THE CURVE, BECAUSE THAT’S WHERE THESE HYPERSCALERS HAVE BEEN FUNDING THEIR THEIR LARGE SCALE SPENDING.”

There Sara! It’s simple isn’t it? All it needs is an unbiased mind!

Listen to David Rosenberg above and ask yourselves whether he actually thinks the Fed is going to CUT interest rates as their next move? Clearly Sara Eisen didn’t and we certainly did not. So why do we bring that up?

Because later on Friday, August 21, we saw a clip of David Rosenberg with Maggie Lake of Wealthion saying as his first sentence in the introduction:

• “I’m actually leaning to the view that their next move will be to cut rates uh not to raise rates.”

Then Rosenberg goes on:

• “I think that the economy is more fragile than people think. AI is booming. It’s one part of the economy. What happens if the stock market stops going up? What happens if the savings rate stops going down? 

 

What!!!!!!! Then you notice the top right notice that the above clip was recorded on August 12, 10 days ago. Now go back up & listen to everything David Rosenberg said to Sara Eisen on Friday, August 21. Can you even find a hint or even a trace of a hint that Rosenberg thinks the next move by the Fed will be to lower rates? We cannot. We had watched the Rosenberg-Eisen clip above live on CNBC and we did not discern even a trace of his view that the Fed’s next move would be to cut rates. 

The above is a detailed clip with Section 3 (at minute 4:12) titled “Will the Federal Reserve Cut Rates Next?” The next 4 sections are titled “Weak GDP Growth & Falling Inflation 08:23 Why the U.S. Economy Is More Fragile Than It Looks 09:23 Labor Market Weakness Could Change the Fed’s Focus 10:08 Treasury Yields, Bond Markets & Inflation Uncertainty.

We wonder how it happens that David Rosenberg so clearly believes that the Fed could cut rates as their next move and ONLY shares his belief 10 days ago on August 12 with Wealthion but doesn’t share it with CNBC’s Viewers on Friday, August 21? How many CNBC viewers have been hurt by this off-the-CNBC-record thinking & beliefs of David Rosenberg? We feel kinda jealous of Weathion related people who presumably heard this new thinking of David Rosenberg.  

But Wealthion is NOT the only entity that heard about Rosenberg’s view that the Fed’s next move will be a rate cut. Look at the clip below dated August 18, 26 of an appearance by David Rosenberg on Financial Post with host Larysa Harapyn. 

Watch & listen to Rosenberg say at minute 7:57 of the Financial Post clip:

• “I am bearish on the US Dollar for a variety of reasons and I think the next move by the Fed will be a rate cut not a hike; that will be additionally beneficial for the gold price”

 

 

 

We find it hard to believe that organizations like Wealthion & Financial Post would be told on air by David Rosenberg that he expects Fed’s next move to be a Rate Cut & not a hike without CNBC being aware of it. So we wondered whether CNBC PRO, the exclusive CNBC site for the rich & successful, had published an appearance by David Rosenberg. So we checked CNBC.com and found an exclusive PRO session by David Rosenberg on Friday, August 21. But we could not find any appearance by David Rosenberg on CNBC PRO between August 12 (Wealthion clip) & Friday August 21. 

Now we don’t know whether Rosenberg told CNBC’s exclusive PRO clients about his belief that Fed would cut rates next & not raise them. But we find it hard to believe that CNBC would hide that huge point of view change from its regular, simple viewer base.

What we also don’t know is whether Sara Eisen was aware of Rosenberg’s view that the next move by the Fed would be a rate cut. She is a correspondent first & we find it hard to believe that she would NOT bring it up on her show with David Rosenberg if she was aware of his rate cut view. 

Sorry to make such a big deal of this but we still can’t believe that CNBC was not aware of Rosenberg’s Rate Cut view even on August 21 while other firms like Wealthion & Financial Post were informed on August 12 & August 18. 

Finally, an excellent summation of expert-hysteria from @MacroCharts via J.C. Parets:

• J.C. Parets@JC_ParetsX – 8-23 – This morning @MacroChart is spot on calling out the worst people on Twitter for openly mocking policymakers. The jokes aren’t even funny. Usually worth watching these people for the fade. https://macrocharts.com

 

1.1 US Indices:

• VIX up 6.2% to 15.15; Dow down 85 bps; SPX down 1.4%; RSP down 49 bps; NDX down 2.5%; RUT down 1.6%; MDY down 2.4%; XLU down 3.5%; SMH down 4.7%;  SOXL down 16.8%;

How did the week close?

• Trader Z@angrybear168 – 8-21 – $SPY Weekly tension closed bullish.

Semis were hit badly this past week. But

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – Nomura’s Chip Shortage Index is near a record high, signaling a deep, AI-driven semiconductor shortage. – @soberlook ttps://thedailyshot.com/subscribe/

 

Perhaps, it is quite simple: 

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – 8-23 – US household leverage (liabilities to net wealth) is the lowest in 50 years JPM

 

Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research has had a hot hand this year in flexibly moving between Buy & Hold. Earlier in the year, as we recall, he advised stepping away & lowering equity positioning given the risks he saw. Then during the later stages of the serious decline in April, he suggested going overweight equities. Recently, after the Situational Awareness crashette, Pies suggested going back in to overweight. Then last week, he said that they were going from overweight to neutral & shared his reasons.

To his credit, Pies seems to have called another turn correctly. As he told CNBC’s Mike Santoli, the earnings releases are in the rearview mirror and now we have to think about Macro. What we are left with are lower volatility & low correlations.. So, he said, if there is a macro event kicked off say by the Fed or the Mid-term elections, you could get a volatility spike & a hiccup in the stock market. So, he thinks, this is a window to neutralize & start de-risking a bit.

He specifically points to a potential mistake by the Fed in raising interest rates in the September meeting. That, in his words, might result in a violent re-pricing & a spike higher in the 10-yr Treasury yield.  

Listen to him yourselves below. Our sincere thanks to CNBC’s Mike Santoli in the smart play of follow a winner. 

 

 

 

1.2 MAG 7:

• AAPL up 1.1%; AMZN down 1.5%; GOOGL down 31 bps; META down 6.8%; MSFT down 2.5%; NFLX up 1.8%; NVDA down 4.6%; MU down 50 bps; SNDK down 2.7%;  IBM up 58 bps; IGV down 68 bps; CRM up 6.6%; PANW down 6.9%; NOW up 3.6%; PLTR up 3.4%; 

What about alpha?

 

1.3 Key Financials:

• BAC down 4.3%; C down 5.5%; GS down 1 bps; JPM down 3.1%; KRE down 3.9%; EUFN down 80 bps;  SCHW up 1.1%; APO down 5.7%; BX down 38 bps; KKR down 4.9%; XHB down 2.3%; ITB down 1.3%; NAIL down 4.8%;

Remember the older examples of credit exhibiting issues in prior cycles in late August & September?

• TheMarketEar – 8-22 – Credit Is Flashing Red. Tech Vol Is Asleep – Hyperscaler CDS is back near the highs. 

One symptom of the “red” might be, as we heard, the term “semi-liquid” for liquidity being replaced by “conditional or periodic“. The clip title is interesting – $14.5B OF INVESTOR MONEY IS TRAPPED IN PRIVATE CREDIT SAYS PIMCO -AS UNIV OF CAL. DUMPS $1B AT LOSS. And its descriptive summary says:

• “PIMCO President Christian Stracke says wealth managers are retreating from direct-lending private credit after the wave of redemption restrictions and liquidity problems that hit major funds earlier this year. According to Bloomberg, Stracke says wealth distributors increasingly “do not want to and cannot sell” direct-lending private credit retail vehicles. Investors who already asked for their money back are still waiting, and some may be waiting for quite some time.
• The numbers are significant. Bloomberg reports that many BDCs have redemption queues equal to roughly 15% of assets under management, which Stracke believes could take several quarters to work through. More than $14.5 billion of investor capital is reportedly stuck across more than a dozen funds.
• PIMCO, with approximately $2.26 trillion in assets, is warning about a pipeline of problem loans inside parts of the private-credit market particularly software loans maturing in 2027 and 2028. Stracke expects elevated defaults as the industry works through those loans over the next several years.
• The University of California investment system reportedly sold approximately $1 billion of private-equity stakes to HarbourVest Partners. The portfolio was reportedly sold at a discount greater than 10%. UC Investments manages approximately $190 billion. Its portfolio contained roughly $39 billion of private assets as of mid-2025, and its private-equity allocation had doubled from approximately 5% in 2020 to 10%.
• These are not isolated data points. They are signals that liquidity, valuation and credit risk are becoming increasingly important across the private markets.”

Given NVDIA is going to report earnings this coming week, we thought it relevant to include the clip below dated Aug 20 that frankly is above our heads. The clip’s summary states:

• “The credit cycle isn’t really about blue owls, instead a gray swan. Nvidia isn’t just in the news for its stock trading at a tremendous discount, it’s how the company and all the money surrounding connect what might seem disparate dots all throughout the system, and in so doing point to the emerging downside the mainstream is having a harder time dismissing. “

 

Our own belief is that the current cycle should last at least another couple of years but we really don’t have a serious clue. 

But all this stuff tells us that David Rosenberg is right and the Fed might need to move aggressively to cut rates as Bernanke began doing in 4Q 2007. 

 

1.4 – Dollar & Metals

• UUP down 75 bps; DXY down 81 bps; Gold up 5.6%; GDX up 14.3%; Silver up 7.1%; Copper down 21 bps; CLF down 5.3%;  FCX up 15.3%; MOS up 13%; Oil up 5.5%; Brent up 6.3%; OIH down 1.4%; XLE up 2.8%; PBR up 7.1%;

Relationship between higher energy prices & agricultural commodities:

• Otavio (Tavi) Costa@TaviCosta – 8-23 – Meanwhile….. Agricultural commodities are now at their highest level in a decade. Yet another unintended consequence of higher energy prices. Watch the Fed be forced to walk back its hawkish stance even as inflation continues to creep higher. It’s not like these guys have many  options. https://tavicosta.substack.com/p/30-critical-macro-charts?r=2m39jp&utm_medium=ios

And,

• J.C. Parets@JC_ParetsX – The average Materials stock just closed the week at its highest level in American history.

 

1.5 – International Stocks:

• EEM up 77 bps; EMXC up 52 bps; FXI up 2.8%; KWEB down 1.3%;  BABA down 3.6%; EWZ up 3.3%; EWY down 78 bps; EWJ down 3.1%; EWG up 9 bps; INDA down 28 bps; INDY down 16 bps; EPI down 5 bps; SMIN up 41 bps; IBN up 57 bps; HDB up 98 bps;

Think back to February 2023 & recall the washout in the stock of Adani Enterprises. Back then, we felt the washout was ridiculous & wrote so in Adani Washout – Our Reflections on February 5, 2023. At that time, you could bought a lot of the stock around Rs. 1,400/-. It closed Friday at Rs. 2,995/-

This week, Bloomberg praised the stock as India’s best-performing stock on on India’s equity benchmark and wrote:

• The shares have surged 34% so far in 2026, putting the company on track to end the year as the top gainer on the NSE Nifty 50 Index. It last held that spot at the end of 2022, weeks before Hindenburg Research’s short-seller report in January 2023 sparked a selloff that wiped more than $150 billion off the power-to-ports group’s market value at one point.

And,

 

On the other hand, this week’s international geopolitical stuff is far more interesting. That brings us to Section 2 below:

 

2. Geopolitical Turmoil getting worse & fast!

Last week, we touched on the then new “Islamic Nato” construct comprising of Turkey, Saudi Arabia & Na-Pakistan. Much of what we wrote has been supported & actually risen to a more potentially explosive level this week. That was triggered by a very sensible & smart step by US Ambassador to India, Sergio Gore, during his trip to the lovely state of Kashmir. The sensible & smart step consisted by Ambassador Gore stating simply that “Kashmir is an important part of India” and that, given the progress made in that state, the US might remove the current advisory to Americans to not travel to Kashmir.

 

Those simple & decisive words were tantamount to an explosion in Islamabad & an eruption in the diplomatic corp of Na-Pakistan. Kudos to President Trump & his Administration for taking a critically important step & they could not chosen a better communicator than Ambassador Sergio Gore to launch it.

This step also allowed the Pakistani Supreme Court to order release of jailed political leader Imran Khan on grounds of medical care. Everybody knows that Munir, current head of Napak, & Imran Khan are blood-enemies. The release of Imran Khan into a hospital was enough to petrify Munir. He didn’t even waste a moment & acted fast. The three sections of the Napak Military, the dominant Army, Air Force & Navy acted together to lift Munir’s Head of Army status to the new role of Head of All Armed Forces, meaning a virtual dictator of NaPakistan. The very next day, Imran Khan was sent again to his prison cell & no one bothered to even contact the so-called Supreme Court.

Now go back a day or two back to a set of comments by Elbridge Colby, US Under Secretary of War for Policy. He warned in his public comments that a big risk is a local nuclear conflict between two nuclear powers that escalates into a broader conflict. That risk is probably a greater risk to the US than a direct nuclear conflict with the US. Now see the WION clip below on August 18 titled “US Official Hints At Havoc As Nuclear Pak Faces Nuclear Israel | GRAVITAS”.

 

Yes, NaPak is viewed as a major military risk by Israel. But it has been supplanted by a fellow “Islamic NATO” member that is also a member of Euro-American NATO, viz. Turkey. And the arms deal relationship between India & Armenia is being upgraded into a “structured military partnership”. A quick look at the map shows that Armenia, a relatively small country, is sandwiched between Turkey & Azerbaijan, a Turkey ally. 

Understand that no country has received more powerful weapons from India for its defense than Armenia.  

 

All that is fine but what about the really big problem before India? Guess what happened on August 20!

The Indo-Japanese Memorandum of Understanding was done by Japanese Foreign Minister Shinjiro Koizumi & Indian Defense Minister RajNath Singh in India on August 20. 

Japan has given Philippines 5 warships to build up naval defense, a move that infuriated China:

Remember Philippines was the first country to purchase the Brahmos missiles (3 batteries) from India.  They are now trying to buy 9 more Brahmos batteries, a tripling of their Brahmos defense. 

 

Is there a tie-up among the above? A trigger of sorts for a move for both Turkey & China? We don’t know how they think but we all saw what these two countries did last week, beginning almost immediately after Munir became the Dictator of NaPakistan. What did they do? 

• “A concentrated 60 hour-surge of in foreign military flights, triggering speculation over possible defence transfers, via Chinese military flights & Turkish military transports landing at major Napaki military bases at Nur Khan & Masroor“

But the most urgent question might be whether Israel & Turkey are gearing up for a war in Syria?

It may seem as if Israel is virtually alone in this unforgiving world? In a world that treats Israel as an outcast, an old true friend is standing with Israel. And this is a relationship that even fervent White Jews in American Media don’t know or understand. And this is a clip dated today, August 23, 26.

 

Speaking of old friends, what is up with India-Russia relationship? Since you ask, India’s foreign minister JaiShankar is in Moscow discussing the upcoming BRICS Summit & “India’s Next Big Defense Bet“

 

By the way, notice that everything discussed & showcased above took place this week. Man, how fast are events moving!

 

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