Interesting TACs of the Week (January 19 – January 25, 2026)

Summary – A top-down review of interesting calls and comments made last week in Treasuries, monetary policy, economics, stocks, bonds & commodities. TAC is our acronym for Tweets, Articles, & Clips – our basic inputs for this article.

Editor’s Note: In this series of articles, we include important or interesting Tweets, Articles, Video Clips with our comments. This is an article that expresses our personal opinions about comments made on Television, Tweeter, and in Print. It is NOT intended to provide any investment advice of any type whatsoever. No one should base any investing decisions or conclusions based on anything written in or inferred from this article. Macro Viewpoints & its affiliates expressly disclaim all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this article. Investing is a serious matter and all investment decisions should only be taken after a detailed discussion with your investment advisor and should be subject to your objectives, suitability requirements and risk tolerance.

 

1. Markets last week

Friday, January 23rd was a reversal day for many trades. Was that a one-day adjustment or will it prove to be a important reversal? 

1.1 US Indices:

• VIX up 2.2% at 16.09; Dow down 53 bps; SPX down 35 bps; RSP down 14 bps; NDX up 30 bps; SMH down 7 bps; RUT down 37 bps; MDY down 58 bps; XLU down 1.9%;

A big rally being given up or only a minor profit taking?

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – Jan 23 – $IWM vs $QQQ worst day since April 9, 2025; Retracing a chunk of the YTD small cap relative rally… @stockcharts

 

1.2.Key Stocks:

• AAPL down 2.9%; AMZN up 2 bps; GOOGL down 63 bps; META up 6.2%; MSFT up 1.3%; NFLX down 2.1%; NVDA up 70 bps; MU up 10.2%; BAC down 2.4%; C down 3.8%; GS down 4.5%; JPM down 4.7%; KRE down 35 bps; EUFN flat;  SCHW down 1.6%; APO down 5.3%; BX down 8%; KKR down 7.7%.

Re regional banks:

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – Jan 23 – $KRE nasty candle yesterday confirmed today… big bearish marubozu @stockcharts

 

Switching to Mag 7:

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – Jan 23 – $MAGS vs $IWM – Mag 7 vs small caps... best day since May 14, 2025

Focusing on a big player:

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – Jan 23 – $MSFT best day since May … +4.1%... +7% from Wednesday’s low

Any thought from above for the Mag 7 earnings next week?

• Seth Golden@SethCL – Jan 23 – Tony Pasquariello of GS: “my instinct is there’s a window to own short-dated upside calls on the big US tech stocks for the reporting period. judging from the GS franchise mosaic, it’s clear that the Great Eight has been sold to fund a rotation into the reflation trade (this has been most pronounced in demand for industrials). if there’s a seam for the mega caps to get their mojo back, earnings should be as good an opportunity as any.” $SPX $QQQ $NDX $XLK $AAPL $META $AMZN $TSLA $MSFT $MAGS h/t @BlakeMillardCFA

 

1.3 Dollar & Metals

Dollar was down 1.9% on UUP & down 1.9% on DXY:

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – Jan 23 – $UUP dollar ETF worst week since last May @stockcharts

And,

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – Jan 23 – Dollar $DXY puking to the weakest since Oct 3 @tradingview

 

• Gold up 8.5%; GDX up 10.1%; Silver up 13.8%; Copper up 1.9%; CLF up 7.8%;  FCX up 2.9%; MOS up 9.3%; Oil up 3%; Brent up 2.6%; OIH up 4.1%; XLE up 3.2%;

 

1.4 International Stocks:

• EEM up 2.1%; FXI up 36 bps; KWEB up 53 bps; EWZ up 10.3%; EWY up 5.1%; EWG up 37 bps; INDA down 3.1%; INDY down 2.7%; EPI down 3%; SMIN down 4.9%;

A new relative bull market per Hartnett:

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – Jan 23 – BofA Hartnett: EM entering new relative bull market $EEM $VWO

 

1.5 Treasuries & Interest Rates:

• TLT up 15 bps; EDV up 15 bps; ZROZ up 26 bps;

Was Treasury volatility as low as the action in TLT et al suggests?

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – Jan 23 – $MOVE Treasury rate volatility could have its lowest weekly close since May 2021; Very stable, very calm

 

2. What’s going on?

2.1 Middle East 

Last Friday, at around 4 pm, the Head of UAE  His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ) flew into New Delhi. He was received personally by PM Modi at the airport & the two leaders drove to Modi’s residence. The meeting was completed in a couple of hours & then the Sheikh flew back to UAE.  Reportedly, letters of intent were signed for a strategic defense partnership and for a large 10-yr deal for India to buy liquified natural gas from Abu Dhabi. Some sources put the figure of $200 billion on this 10-yr deal. The deal itself was not a surprise but what was unusual is the speed with which it was agreed upon & signed. 

Many point to the emergence of an Islamic NATO like grouping that is now being put forth comprising of Saudi Arabia, NaPakistan & Turkey.  This grouping is not only getting involved in Yemeni wars (MBS never learns, does he?) and planning to “attack” the Somaliland recently recognized by Israel. 

It could well be that UAE needed the support & protection of a major military power in the area to remain out of the clutches of this Islamic NATO. The presence of India & Indian Navy enables Israel to become an active, silent partner in an UAE-India-Israel relationship. Recall that Israel is already organizing a Greece-Cyprus-Israel grouping to limit the offensive moves of Turkey in the Mediterranean. And they have been trying to get India to participate in that grouping.

A simple corollary of the above would suggest increased arms sales by India to UAE & the near Middle East.

That brings us to that little piece of water known as the Straits of Hormuz – Port of Duqm, MP7G+JP4, Duqm, Oman to Fujairah – United Arab Emirates – Google Maps. Open the map to see the road link from Omani naval base of Duqm to the UAE port of Fujairah, located just below the entrance of the Straights of Hormuz. India already has access to part of the Duqm naval base of Oman & presumably as a guarantor of UAE security, the Indian Navy would get access to Fujairah. To the north is the Iranian port of Chabahar which is protected by the Indian Navy & straight across is India’s western coastline with deep ports managed by the Indian Navy.

2.2 EU – India

Monday, January 26 is the Republic Day of India. The EU leadership are this year’s Chief Guests at the parade. And the day after, the EU leadership & India are expected to sign a massive Free Trade Deal that the EU leadership themselves have called the Mother of all Trade Deals. And,reportedly, a part of the trade deals is a joint EU-India defense deal. 

But in the dictum of many a slip between the cup & lip, we would wait until these deals are done to discuss their implications. 

2.3 – the Hugie, not merely the biggie Xi Jin Ping arrests Zhang Youexia

 

 

Send your feedback to editor.macroviewpoints@gmail.com Or @MacroViewpoints on X.