Interesting TACs of the Week (January 26 – February 1, 2026)

Summary – A top-down review of interesting calls and comments made last week in Treasuries, monetary policy, economics, stocks, bonds & commodities. TAC is our acronym for Tweets, Articles, & Clips – our basic inputs for this article.

Editor’s Note: In this series of articles, we include important or interesting Tweets, Articles, Video Clips with our comments. This is an article that expresses our personal opinions about comments made on Television, Tweeter, and in Print. It is NOT intended to provide any investment advice of any type whatsoever. No one should base any investing decisions or conclusions based on anything written in or inferred from this article. Macro Viewpoints & its affiliates expressly disclaim all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information in this article. Investing is a serious matter and all investment decisions should only be taken after a detailed discussion with your investment advisor and should be subject to your objectives, suitability requirements and risk tolerance.

 

1. A Turn for November! 

President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair post Powell. It was a smart choice for several reasons. Warsh is an old-timer at the Fed & that in itself is positive. His choice immediately quelled the fears of what might happen to the Fed and that was seen in the action in Gold & Silver on Friday.  The new trinity of Bessent, Hassett & Warsh will work together harmoniously & the results will be good for markets, economy & the administration. And the rates picture will take care of itself. More broadly, the choice of Warsh is a signal that we will see a different President Trump going forward, a more of dealmaker Trump & less willing to create new disruptions either at home or overseas.  

We are also encouraged by the statement of Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal of India that a US-India trade deal will be signed later this year. In case you didn’t notice a major impetus for the EU-India Trade deal was the belief enunciated by EU Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen that “a successful India makes the world more stable, more prosperous & more secure“. And stability is what the world needs at this time.

How happy & ceremonious was the EU trip to India? How different was Ms. Ursula Von Der Leyen from her usual prim, proper diplomatic fashion? She celebrated the event with a gorgeous jacket that radiated contextual diplomacy. That made the event more celebratory & full of meaning. It wasn’t a marriage ceremony but the stunning Banarasi brocade dress made it more celebratory than a signing of a business deal. Watch one reaction below:

 

We can’t wait for the visit of President & First Lady Trump to India to sign the US-India Trade deal later this year. Its opulence might even put last week’s EU-India celebration to shame.

 

2. Markets Last Week:

2.1 US Indices:

• VIX up 5.3% at 16.94; Dow down 42 bps; SPX up 33 bps; RSP down 35 bps; NDX down 21 bps; SMH up 84 bps; RUT up 1.1%; MDY down 1.4%; XLU up 1.6%;

Yes, Friday was a bad day but …

• Subu Trade@SubuTrade – Put volume jumped on Friday. Prior spikes in Put volume were close to marking bottoms in the S&P 500

And a consistent message!

 

2.2.Key Stocks:

• AAPL up 4.6%; AMZN up 6 bps; GOOGL up 3.1%; META up 8.8%; MSFT down 7.7%; NFLX down 3.1%; NVDA up 1.8%; MU up 3.8%; BAC up 2.9%; C up 1.9%; GS up 1.8%; JPM up 2.7%; KRE up 1.8%; EUFN up 1.9%;  SCHW up 1.7%; APO down 1.3%; BX down 5.4%; KKR down 5.8%.

Momentum still?

• Ryan Detrick, CMT@RyanDetrick – Another great report from @FrankCappelleri this morning. Momentum looks ready to go again. We’ve liked this area for years and still think it makes sense to have in a diversified portfolio.

Mucho momentum continued in Semis:

• Trader Z@angrybear168 – $SOXL semis not stopping anytime soon, another buy setup showed up.

But a hint of trouble in semi-land?

• J.C. Parets@JC_ParetsX – Some cracks quietly forming in the Semiconductors?

And a cautious message from consumers!

 

2.3 Dollar & Metals

Dollar was down 22 bps on UUP & down 32 bps on DXY:

• J.C. Parets@JC_ParetsX – Oops! 👀

• Gold down 2.3%; GDX down 12%; Silver down 18.2%; Copper up 25 bps; CLF down 8.8%;  FCX down 30 bps; MOS down 4.5%; Oil up 7.3%; Brent up 7.3%; OIH up 2.5%; XLE up 3.8%;

A huge reversal!

• Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi – $SLV retraced almost HALF of the 2022-2026 rally.… in a day and a half. Whoa. @stockcharts

 

2.4 International Stocks:

• EEM up 5 bps; FXI up 43 bps; KWEB down 1.5%; EWZ up 1.2%; EWY up 3.8%; EWG down 85 bps; INDA up 98 bps; INDY up 79 bps; EPI up 1.8%; SMIN up 2.5%;

Is a one-day change a reversal? We will all find out.

• “And within Asia, uh I will say specifically the one country that is sticking out that lagged the regional benchmark last year is India. And I wrote a report on it and uh we just may carve out and just go long the Sensex for this year. We actually love the Indian stock market.”

For a more detailed discussion about Indian consumption & the return of the Investment Cycle, watch the 9 minute clip below:

 

A couple of key points from the above clip:

• “3:33 According to RBI, urban consumption remains stable and rural consumption in India demand is gradually improving. Services consumption remains strong. High frequency indicators show that rural demand is picking up supported by automobile and retail sales while urban demand is recovering through retail and services activity. But why does this matter? Because consumption creates certainty. Businesses invest only when they believe the demand will last. Stable consumption reduces the risk of sudden economic collapse or upheavals. And that’s one reason India’s absorbed so many global shocks better than most other countries.“
• “Now let’s move towards something structural and foundational. For years, even after the global financial crisis and even the pandemic, India struggled with weak private
  investment. But that is now changing again. The RBI bulletin points to revival of the investment cycle. Bank credit to industry is growing strongly. Corporate balance sheets are healthier and government capital expenditure remains elevated. As of late 2025, the credit flow to commercial sector grew around 15% year-on-ear indicating that businesses are accessing more funds for further expansion. Corporate profitability has improved, debt stress has reduced and private capital expenditure is expected to grow even sharply. And this matters because consumption alone cannot sustain high growth forever. Investment builds future capacity for factories, infrastructure, technology and jobs.”
• “These signals a shift from recovery led growth to investment growth now which is
  far more sustainable. … Manufacturing is improving. Services especially IT, finance, transport, tourism and digital platforms also remain strong. This balance means manufacturing creates mass employment services generates high value income. Together they stabilize the growth and reduce vulnerability to sector specific shocks. something many developing economies struggle to achieve.”

Allow us to give a specific example of how a bad experience leads to a growth of a new sector in India. Those who remember the crash of the Air-India Boeing plane that led to large casualties. Apparently, India was upset at how Boeing treated the investigation. So instead of protesting, the Indian Government decided to make India a center of passenger jet manufacturing. 

• This month Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation teamed up with India’s HAL for production of Russia’s Superjet 100 regional jet in India. At the same time, Adani Aerospace & Defense has partnered with Embraer to assemble commercial aircraft in India, with a focus on localization, supply chains, maintenance, and training. Embraer already operates around 50 aircraft in India and sees the country as a major growth market. 

The message being India no longer wants to buy planes; it wants to build them.

 

We do believe a number of strategic eyes opened with the signing of the EU-India Trade Deal & the EU-India Defense partnership. Everybody knew of India but hardly any one outside knew much about India. When a beaming Ursula Von Der Layen stood in front of global TV and said “we did it“, most nations, especially middle powers, woke up. And they also realized that Indian youth are growing at the fastest rate in the world among major countries. 

And the first ones to wake up were countries in the Arab world. As we write this, 22 Arab countries have sent their Foreign Ministers to New Delhi for a summit meeting. And PM Modi is scheduled to visit Israel in late February 2026. Are these two unrelated? Perhaps, but we doubt it. It is Delhi’s mission to include the Arab Middle East into a peaceful, trade-oriented group including Israel. And that means jettisoning all attempts of Turkey-Napakistan to construct an Islamic NATO. 

Finally, a stunning statement made to Piers Morgan by an Israeli Diplomat just 2 days ago:

• “India might be our most important strategic partner in the next decade – more than the United States“.

Frankly, this sounds like a message being sent to USA by Israel to not take them for granted. But it might also be driven by what is going on in the Democrat party in America. But it does seem as if Israel is increasingly shifting its Defense Manufacturing to India. 

The point of the above is to suggest that David Rosenberg may be correct in his plan to “carve out and just go long the Sensex for this year”.

By the way, we still have no idea what is really going on inside China, either in the Xi vs. Military battle or in something as simple as the true level of Han Chinese population in China. 

 

2.5 Treasuries & Interest Rates:

• TLT down 91 bps; EDV down 1.7%; ZROZ down 2.2%;
• 30-year Treasury yield up 5.9 bps on the week; 20-yr yield up 4.1 bps; 10-yr up 1.8 bps; 7-yr down 0.3 bps; 5-yr down 3.3 bps; 3-yr down 6.8 bps; 2-yr down 6.9 bps; 1-yr down 4.7 bps;

That brings us to the clip we discussed above – DoubleLine Round Table Prime 2026: Best Ideas: And we jump straight to David Rosenberg speaking about Treasuries:

• “37:55 – I like the two-year note a lot. Uh the 10-year, well, what I’ll share with the group is that very recently I had Ivy Zelman on uh my webcast and she’s basically America’s housing guru. Uh now she wouldn’t go into specifics, but she did say she let something out of the bag because she’s been spending time in Washington uh that the White House is cooking up something in their affordability package which is forthcoming that’s going to deal with housing. Uh so I don’t know what that means for the 10-year note, but it doesn’t leave me bearish, that’s for sure. And then there’s the long bond which has been a little orphan which we’ve talked about but I got to say uh the long bond yield close to 5%. Uh that’s just very tempting. Uh the real yield at 2.6 that’s really tempting for me. So I would say actually I like the whole curve. And the other bond market globally that I like a lot for similar reasons uh is the guilt market, the UK guilts market because I think the economy there is is going to weaken. inflation is going to is already coming down after the scare they had and will come down further and the BOE there’s not enough rate cuts priced in to the guilts curve. So I like UK guilts as well and I’m happy to take the exposure in sterling since I’m agnostic basically on the US dollars. So that’s fine.”

In contrast, Jeff Gundlach does not like the long maturity Treasury bonds & prefers to hold Treasuries of less than 7-yrs maturity. But he points out that if the bond market takes long rates to a level that leads to a response, the 1st response will be QE with yield curve control, then you can get a 20-point rally in the long bond in a week (14:32 minute).

 

3. N-word & the Naa-feminization!

Some terms of hatred just don’t go away. Watch & listen to the lady below angry & aggrieved at the continued discussion about whether the N-word can or should be used.

 

We feel the pain of every Black-African human when they hear the N-word or hear justifications about some one using that horrifically demeaning term in public. We sincerely hope that the management of Versant concurs with this lady in the above clip on MSNBC, a Versant company.

That leads us to wonder whether Versant might feel the same way about a couple of on-air “talent” from their CNBC company arguing for a similar insult against a Extremely Sacred Hindu figure. We have documented deliberately insulting terms used on CNBC against Sacred Hindu figures since 2008. The previous management of CNBC slowly got sensitized but never took the harsh steps necessary to stop the anti-Hindu hate at CNBC. Hopefully Versant will prove they are made of sterner stuff.

The name Krushn is one of two most Sacred names in the multi-thousand year history of Indian/Hindu civilization. This term was maligned in British English by colonial Brits to express utter contempt of Indian civilization & to keep the Hindus from feeling proud. 

In stark contrast, the feminine version of the Krushn name is Krushnaa, just like Carl & Carla or Robert & Roberta. This pattern comes from the ancient & still vibrantly alive Sanskrut language & pronunciation. And Krushnaa was the term used for the most beautiful & most appealing woman. And Krushn protected her from a carnal attack. So NO ONE will confuse the male Avataar Krushn with Krushnaa, a woman that no man could gaze at without having carnal thoughts.

Now ask yourselves who would mix up these two names of different gender into the same pronunciation! The answer is people stepped in British contempt of Hindu Civilization, people who take a sick, perverse joy in exhibiting their British-taught contempt of Hindu civilization. 

During this week, two CNBC anchors, one woman, one man, complained on CNBC’s air about not being able to use the Krushnaa feminization insult on a billion people just to please their own inner hatred. They knew that the man they wanted to invite was known to express the same hateful feminization for whatever reasons of his own.

Would a Jewish anchor at CNBC use a similarly hateful term for Moses on air just because a guest of CNBC chose to do do? Would a Christian anchor at CNBC use a similarly hateful term for Jesus just because a guest of CNBC chose to do so? We don’t think so. And if we are wrong, then we believe that CNBC Management would take serious action against them. 

But why would a Hindu guest choose to insult a Supreme Sacred name? Sadly, the fact is that thousands of Hindus learned to be like Brits & act like Brits to appear more British than the British themselves. They were the first to turn traitors & aid the Brits. In fact, the phenomenally patriotic film Dhurandhar (the most successful in Indian history) features a famous quote from India’s National Security Advisor:

 

• “Find out which minister helped the enemy; the biggest enemy of Hindus are Hindus; Pakistanis are a far second“.

The unbridled success of Dhurandhar convinced us that India has changed and no longer will India allow Indians to work with haters of India to malign India & Indian civilization. It should be a warning to Versant to not begin their new voyage with tolerance of extreme contempt of Hindu culture & civilization. We never give up hope but possibly the two CNBC anchors in question may be tarred by hate & contempt beyond hope.

Finally for the sake of completeness, earlier we had brought up the name Shyam (CTO of Palantir Technologies) in connection with the discussion of this topic on CNBC. Shyam is a gentler synonym of the harder name Krushn.

Shyam means gentler dark like evening cloud. And Shyam has been almost always used in a romantic context like the incredible poetry of the 1963 song below. The fair young woman says to the evening – “take my fair color away and give me the Shyam color so that I may slip out unseen in the dark to be with my lover“. The female name is Shyamaa or Shyamalaa (name of Former VP’s mother).

How different is the message of Krushn to Arjun, just before the start of the most destructive war in human history?

• ” If you die in combat, you will achieve Heaven; If you win, you will inherit the Earth; Therefore get up , Son of Kunti (Arjun) determined for war”

and yes, the first screen of the film Dhurandhar bears this message from the Shri Krushn!! And Prime Minister always carries the Bhagvat Geeta with him and gifts it to leaders who visit him.

So it is better for people to forget the disgusting practices of Colonial Brits & get with reality just as it is better for people to forget the contemptible N-word & get with the reality of today.

Our very best to Ms. Zerlina who went on MSNBC to express her distress & anger about the N-word. Who knows, some day CNBC will invite someone to express their own distress & anger about the Naa-feminization!

 

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