Jeff Saut of Raymond James is a more luke warm than Detrick but in the same basic camp:
Lawrence McMillan is also short term cautious in his Friday summary:
4. U.S. Treasuries
The Treasury bulls of past few weeks were not seen post-Fed and those we saw, like Paul Richards, have turned into non-bulls. That's what a steep fall from resistance levels can do. The 5-year yield rose by 11bps from Tuesday's close to Friday's close; the 10-yr & 30-yr yields rose by 11bps & 8 bps resp.
George Goncalves of Nomura remained sanguine on Thursday on CNBC Futures Now:
Friday was anything but a dead trade, though. Bill Gross remained bullish on short-maturity Treasuries because the Fed is steadfast on keeping the FF rate at zero. That proved a major tactical mistake during the summer. But he still argues the same this time as well:
Next week's payroll data will go a long way in deciding whether the bulls will be right during this verbal tapering by the Fed.
Higher taper probability is negative for Gold and that's how Gold acted on Thursday and Friday. Gold miners acted worse because Newmont was downgraded by S&P and the massive equity offering from Barrick acted awfully after the pricing.
But smart tactical traders see an opportunity especially if the current verbal taper by the Fed proves to be just a bark and not a bite. Larry McDonald of NewEdge was trying to make a case for Gold miners on Friday but CNBC Closing Bell host Bill Griffeth cut him off in mid sentence to get back to his buy buy stocks exhortation. What's worse Griffeth demonstrated a visible lack of class in doing so. McDonald has had a hot hand with gold this year, asking investors to buy with both hands in the last week of June and then advising selling after a huge rally in miners.
Tom McClellan remains bullish on Gold in his ETF Investors Still Hating Gold article
But will ETF investors stop fleeing when the specter of taper still hangs over their heads?
1. Marc Lasry on BTV Market Makers - Monday, October 28
Much of this interview was essentially socio-political. Below is a subset of the detailed summary from Bloomberg Television PR.
On whether it worries him when spreads are so low that investors have to go into illiquid products or bad covenants:
On whether there is value in European equity markets the way there is in the debt markets:
On who is looking after the long-term improvements in the U.S.:
On what point does the Federal Reserve begin to taper:
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Mr. Fink was not alone in his dour assessment of America. His was a consensus opinion among the financial & liberal elite in America. But he and his fellow bears were totally wrong, spectacularly wrong.
The Fiscal Cliff deal he railed against in January has resulted in an improved economy and a strong stock market that sped ahead of all emerging market darlings. And it lowered America's fiscal deficit as no other program had done in recent years. As Lawrence Summers pointed out in his Reuters article this week,
Today's civil war in America, though expressed and fought in fiscal terms, is a war about the nature and mission of American society. And the spirit of this war dates back to the conflict between "Jacksonian" and "Jeffersonian" traditions in American society, according to William Galston, senior fellow & Ezra K. Zilkha chair at Brookings Institution. .
There is a core existential reason for the Tea Party to oppose President Obama and Obamacare, according to Galston:
This is what drives the passion of Senator Ted Cruz and his colleagues. This is why their definition of the "American people" raises deep patriotic feelings in heartland America while inflaming and scaring much of coastal America and the rest of the world.
But this is a a core financial issue as well. Today's is the age of the Federal Reserve pumping unprecedented amounts of liquidity every month into the financial system. This is the age in which stock investors, corporations and the wealthy are doing spectacularly well while middle America remains stagnant. This is the age in which corporations maintain trillions of dollars on their balance sheet and share that bounty with stock holders via dividends and buybacks without hiring Americans or expanding their businesses. Today's is the age in which the real job generators of America, small businesses, are getting caught in a pincer of large corporations and beneficiaries of Government largesse. As Galston tells us:
Who are we to question David Tepper? But the uncertainty he addressed doesn't come to head until 2014. That is a different lifetime for performance-fee compensated managers. For them, isn't the environment for the remaining 2.5 months in 2013 is as stable as they can desire with QE pouring in & earnings Ok?
Tom McClellan points to a potential top in his weekly article:
Paul Richards of UBS, a hero last week, was upset with America this week on CNBC FM -1/2.
2. Leon Cooperman on CNBC Squawk Box - Tuesday, October 15
3. Larry Fink on BTV Market Makers - Thursday, October 17
This is a more detailed interview than the CNBC Closing Bell interview on Wednesday. Kudos to Stephanie Ruhle & Erik Schatzker for getting more definitive calls from Larry Fink. The detailed summary below is courtesy of Bloomberg Television PR.
Fink on the impact of the debt ceiling debate on the bond market:
On why the markets have continued to rally over the past two weeks:
On whether BlackRock has been buying or selling Treasury bills and what the firm's plans are for the next three to four months:
On whether we'll face another government shutdown in February:
On who in Washington he will call:
4. Larry Fink on CNBC Closing Bell - Wednesday, October 16
5. Bill Gross on CNBC Street Signs - Wednesday, October 16
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"Gold lost $25 in two minutes on Friday morning, as the gold market experience a massive surge in volume that triggered a halt in the middle of the plunge. The move took gold down to a three-month low, and was felt across the commodity markets."
"It appears to have been an order to sell 5,000 gold futures contracts at market," Eric Hunsader of Nanex told CNBC.com, ... "About 2,700 went off and tripped the stop logic, halting gold futures for 10 seconds while liquidity replenished. When enough liquidity returned (after 10 seconds), the balance of about 2,300 completed."
(watch from minute 20:40 to 21:35)
Mark Newton of Greywolf via CNBC's Melissa Lee on Thursday:
Note: S&P 500 indexed to 100 on 9/29/2000; NKY indexed to 100 on 12/29/1989Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg
10a. India & Greece - A long, deep and ancient relationship - June 14, 2008
10b. Dr. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld of Yale - Is his ignorance symptomatic of Global Investors? - June 14, 2008
President Obama has been a very lucky politician and we greatly respect the quality called luck. The world can change in the next three years. The Chinese might be become malleable if their economy keeps slowing. The price of oil could collapse forcing Iran to make a deal and creating problems for the Russian economy. And the middle east might cool down by sheer exhaustion from its brutal civil wars.
So, none of the above may matter and Secretary Kerry might even get a Nobel Peace Prize himself. But is such a hope for luck the best way to run American foreign policy?
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Ellen Barry @EllenBarryNYT - Week's best complaint goes to Michigan reader, asks why we capitalize word "God" only 4 monotheists. Questions "monopoly on the uppercase."
These days, translation of the Ganesh Atharva-Sheersham is distributed to every one during Ganesh Puja in Mumbai. So Ellen Barry could have easily obtained a copy if she had the slightest interest in learning about Ganesh. There is nothing polytheistic about Ganesh or Indian Dharma. The Dharma teaches that there is One Eternal Truth that is described differently by different seers.
So if Ellen Barry is honest about NYT's standards of monothesism, they will begin using "God Ganesh" instead of the demeaning, offensive, and sacrilegious "god Ganesh".
If they don't, then we will all know what all of us believe to be true - that the New York Times is inherently, deliberately and contemptuously bigoted against Indian Dharma. And they will continue to be so until the majority of Indians, in India & around the world, begin writing in protest to the Executive Editor of the New York Times.
Thank you, Brave Reader, for your protest to the New York Times. This article is dedicated to you.
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The 2nd statement was the principal reason cited by Bernanke in the July 30 FOMC statement. So we wrote in our Taper Schmeper section on August 10:
But his statement this week seemed more restrained:
A comment that reads "pretty favorable environment for the markets"? That's not the David Tepper we have seen on TV. Come on Joe Kernen & Stephanie Ruhle. Invite him on your shows and let him speak unchained by lawyers.
Even the normally cagey Stanley Druckenmiller was more explicit on CNBC Squawk Box on Thursday:
What do we mean by "unchained"? As Paul Richards of UBS told CNBC FM -1/2 on August 16:
5. Larry Fink on CNBC Closing Bell - Wednesday, September 18